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Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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000 ACUS11 KWNS 141929 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141929 NYZ000-PAZ000-142200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0352 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0229 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN / CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 141929Z - 142200Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE LAST COUPLE HOURS OVER WRN NY. THE ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH THROUGH LATE AFTN...AND COULD POSE AN ISOLD / CONDITIONAL RISK OF LOCALLY DMGG WIND. BUOYANCY WILL...HOWEVER...REMAIN LIMITED AND A WW DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY. DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND BECOME SOMEWHAT BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE LAST TWO HOURS OVER WRN NY...ALONG SHALLOW SSW-NNE WIND SHIFT LINE / PRECIPITATION BOUNDARY LOCATED AHEAD OF OH VLY COLD FRONT. THE CONVECTIVE STRENGTHENING APPEARS LARGELY TO BE IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING...ALTHOUGH REGION ALSO IS BEING GLANCED BY SRN FRINGE OF UPR IMPULSE NOW MOVING NNE INTO WRN QUE. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK...THE ERN GRT LKS REGION WILL REMAIN WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF 40-50 SWLY DEEP SHEAR DOWNSTREAM FROM LARGER-SCALE / FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH NOW APPROACHING THE MID-MS VLY. COMBINATION OF STRONG...UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW TO MID-LVL SSW FLOW WITH STEEPENING LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES...RELATIVELY LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS...AND WEAK LINEAR FORCING ALONG PRECIPITATION /DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES MAY SUPPORT ONE OR TWO NARROW BANDS OF LOW-TOPPED STORMS. EMBEDDED STRONGER CELLS WITHIN SUCH LINES MAY POSE A RISK FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVE. ..CORFIDI/HART.. 04/14/2014 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 43567812 44227726 44737626 44957480 44847374 43537421 42147566 41207735 41507831 41638050 42557927 43097855 43567812
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- Page last modified: Mar 14th, 2014 14:33 UTC