Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 171343
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171343
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-171515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1918
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL...FL PANHANDLE...PART OF NRN FL...SRN AND
CENTRAL GA...AND SRN/ERN SC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 552...553...

VALID 171343Z - 171515Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 552...553...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...TORNADO THREAT AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF WW 552 AND ALL OF WW 553 THIS MORNING.

A NEW TORNADO WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED ACROSS PARTS OF SERN-ERN GA
INTO PARTS OF SRN AND ERN SC.

DISCUSSION...IN THE SHORT-TERM /THROUGH 15Z/...THE GREATEST TORNADO
THREAT AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS SERN AL AND FROM
THE CENTRAL AND ERN FL PANHANDLE INTO SWRN GA.  THESE AREAS ARE
LOCATED ALONG AND EAST OF AN EWD-MOVING COLD FRONT...WHICH AT 13Z
EXTENDED FROM FAR ERN TN THROUGH NWRN GA TO EAST-CENTRAL AND SERN
AL...AND THROUGH THE WRN FL PANHANDLE.  AN INFLUX OF RICH
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 F WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO SRN GA THIS MORNING...
RESULTING IN LOW LCLS AS DEPICTED BY THE 12Z TLH SOUNDING.  BACKED
SURFACE WINDS /S-SSELY/ OVER THE ERN FL PANHANDLE...NRN FL TO SRN GA
WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR A CONTINUED TORNADO
THREAT.

MEANWHILE...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED
MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION UNDERWAY ACROSS SERN GA INTO PARTS OF SRN
AND ERN SC PER MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE ATLANTIC.  THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING...RESULTING IN AN
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF A SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT AS ONGOING STORMS
IN SWRN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL GA EXIT WW 553 BETWEEN 15-1530Z.  ALTHOUGH
SURFACE WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD VEER TO SSWLY AS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY...FORECAST
HODOGRAPHS PER 11Z RAP INDICATE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SPEED AND SOME
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR A TORNADO THREAT /SFC-1 KM SRH AT CHS RANGING
FROM 200-300 M2/S2 INTO THE AFTERNOON/.

..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 11/17/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...

LAT...LON   29958656 32128528 32848488 33218383 33248232 33628161
            34208027 33947995 33007969 32168012 30998115 30758149
            30558219 29838260 29458305 29148342 29238395 29248502
            29958656




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