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Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 010200
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010159
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-010800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0106
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NRN AR...ERN OK...FAR SRN MO

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 010159Z - 010800Z

SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND INCREASE IN
INTENSITY THIS EVENING. HRLY RATES IN EXCESS OF 0.05 INCHES ARE
LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...A ZONE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WITH A SWLY
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN A FEED OF MOISTURE NEWD ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX AND INTO THE OZARKS THIS EVENING. SHOWERS OF FREEZING RAIN
PERSIST AS OF 02Z...AND SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF THESE SHOWERS
IS EXPECTED AS MOISTURE AND EVEN WEAK INSTABILITY INCREASE.

THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE EXTENDED FROM SERN OK ACROSS NRN AR AS OF
02Z...AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH. HOWEVER...THE WARM NOSE
ALOFT WILL SPREAD NWD WITH TIME...WITH SNOW CHANGING TO SLEET AND
THEN FREEZING RAIN LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR NRN AR INTO SRN MO.


THE GREATEST DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER NWRN/NRN AR
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FREEZING LINE...WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER
IS HIGHEST AND WHERE LOW AMOUNT OF ELEVATED CAPE MAY EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION RATES.

..JEWELL.. 03/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   36719333 37129231 37329122 37219070 36799065 36129096
            35689154 35179282 34969353 34759416 34449550 34629591
            35209595 35619557 35989492 36249447 36719333

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