Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 191850
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191850
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-192045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0518
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Areas affected...Northern Indiana...Southern Lower Michigan...and
Northern Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 191850Z - 192045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Convection is expected to gradually increase across the
region, with a marginal hail/wind threat expected with stronger
thunderstorm cores.  A WW is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Mosaic radar imagery/satellite observations suggest an
increase in convective activity in western portions of the
discussion area (especially in northern Indiana and southwestern
Michigan) over the past hour.  These trends should continue with
time, owing to continued insolation/surface-based destabilization
amidst a weakly capped airmass.  Storms should remain mostly
multicellular owing to unidirectional wind profiles and relatively
weak low-level flow, although an isolated supercell cannot be ruled
out.  Some impetus for organization will likely evolve from remnants
of a mesoscale convective system moving eastward across southwestern
Michigan currently.  Hail and damaging wind gusts are possible with
the strongest cells especially as storms migrate eastward into
northern Ohio/southeastern Michigan.  Generally, limited instability
and weak low-level shear should keep the overall threat with this
activity marginal/isolated enough to preclude the need for a WW
issuance.

..Cook/Thompson.. 04/19/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...

LAT...LON   42588605 42698582 42718529 42668411 42668349 42568309
            42328305 42038261 41868181 41568113 41228108 40868119
            40558232 40808378 40698475 40598575 40648654 40618692
            40718714 41208690 41528683 42308650 42588605




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