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000
ACUS11 KWNS 222342
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222341
VTZ000-CTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-230115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0774
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF UPSTATE NY/NORTHEAST PA INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 210...212...

VALID 222341Z - 230115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
210...212...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL CONTINUES WITHIN
SEVERE TSTM WATCHES 210/212...BUT ON AN INCREASINGLY
MARGINAL/ISOLATED BASIS INTO THIS EVENING. SOME TORNADO THREAT MAY
ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT-TERM ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL
NY.

DISCUSSION...AS OF 2330Z...A SUPERCELL IS NOTED ACROSS ONEIDA COUNTY
NY NORTHWEST OF THE ROME AREA. THE STORM MAY BE THRIVING ON WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF MODIFYING OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER. ASIDE FROM SEVERE
HAIL...SOME TORNADO THREAT...ALBEIT LIKELY BRIEF...CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO SEEMINGLY INTERACT WITH THE INFLUENCE
OF THE BOUNDARY...PRIOR TO ENCOUNTERING COOLER/MORE STABLE LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW. IN THE SHORT TERM...BACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOTED AT KRME WITH ESTIMATES OF 100+ 0-1 KM SRH BASED ON
REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA.

A DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS NORTHEAST PA/PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN NY IN
ASSOCIATED WITH A SEMI-ORGANIZED LINEAR SYSTEM/ASSOCIATED COLD POOL.

OTHERWISE...A CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED AND/OR NOCTURNALLY COOLING
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A DIMINISHING SEVERE RISK THE
REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING...FOR ONE PARTS OF FAR EASTERN NY INTO NEW
ENGLAND.

..GUYER.. 05/22/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...

LAT...LON   42137770 42937709 43677577 43937290 41997313 41227506
            40987612 41507718 42137770