Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
ACUS11 KWNS 261235
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261235
TXZ000-261430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0737
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/N-CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 261235Z - 261430Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS CROSSING PORTIONS OF CNTRL/N-CNTRL TX THIS MORNING
MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND WIND. WW ISSUANCE IS
PRESENTLY UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...SUSTAINED CONVECTION EVOLVING WITHIN THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE
REGION OF A HIGH-LEVEL SPEED MAX CONTINUES W OF WACO. THIS ACTIVITY
IS SLOWLY SPREADING EWD/NEWD WITHIN A MODEST WARM-ADVECTION REGIME.
THE 12Z FWD RAOB SAMPLES ABUNDANTLY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CHARACTERIZED BY A LOWEST-100-MB MEAN MIXING RATIO OF 16.9 G/KG.
ONLY LITTLE DIURNAL HEATING WILL BE REQUIRED FOR NOCTURNAL MLCINH TO
ERODE...GIVING WAY TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY PROVIDED THE H7-H5
LAPSE RATE OF 9 C/KM. AS SUCH...ONGOING CONVECTION MAY GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY AS IT DEVELOPS TOWARD PARTS OF N-CNTRL TX THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTING AROUND 20-25 KT OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IN
THE SHORT-TERM...KEEPING THE OVERALL SVR RISK MARGINAL/ISOLATED.
NEVERTHELESS...ISOLATED SVR HAIL/WIND CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE
DEGREE OF BUOYANCY.

..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 05/26/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...

LAT...LON   31539829 32309755 32269632 31559625 31289677 31239776
            31539829




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.