National Weather Service Text Product Display

Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50


000
ACUS11 KWNS 272309
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272308
NMZ000-AZZ000-280015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1490
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0608 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 272308Z - 280015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG/DAMAGING
GUSTS. ALTHOUGH A WATCH IS UNLIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM...CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A SURFACE TROF EXTENDING
NWD ACROSS SWRN NM...IN ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
NWWD FROM CHIHUAHUA. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING/REDUCTION IN CINH HAS
ALLOWED SCATTERED STG/OCNLY SVR TSTMS TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SFC TROUGH WITH MORE ISOLD DEVELOPMENT FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE CHIHUAHUA DISTURBANCE AND
CONTINUED HEATING...A GENERAL INCREASE TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED.
MID LEVEL FLOW OF AROUND 15-20 KTS AND MLCAPE OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
WILL PROMOTE MULTICELL STORM ORGANIZATION...AND A DEEP MIXED LAYER
COMBINED WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.4 INCHES SHOULD SUPPORT A RISK
FOR DAMAGING GUSTS. ALTHOUGH A WW IS NOT LIKELY IN THE SHORT
TERM...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..BUNTING/EDWARDS.. 07/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC...PSR...

LAT...LON   32591218 32991058 33130982 33090925 33020824 32810804
            32430789 32020802 31800807 31770831 31440832 31350857
            31270909 31371073 31581175 31941235 32591218

National Weather Service National Headquarters