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Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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110 ACUS11 KWNS 191938 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191938 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-192145- Mesoscale Discussion 1351 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Areas affected...Portions of southeast MN...southwest WI...northeast IA Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 191938Z - 192145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A compact convective system is spreading eastward/east-southeastward across MN with accompanying severe wind/hail potential. The issuance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch downstream of Watch 420 is forthcoming. DISCUSSION...A compact, bowing MCS across southern MN is moving eastward to east-southeastward around 50 kt. This activity has recently attained more of a southward component to its motion, as the air mass continues to strongly destabilize near and south of a warm-frontal zone along which this system is tracking. This activity has a history of producing severe wind gusts, and will pose severe wind/hail potential as it spreads downstream of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 420. Additional details regarding the evolution of this system are contained in Mesoscale Discussion 1348, and will be contained within a forthcoming MCD. ..Cohen/Coniglio/Hart.. 07/19/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX... LAT...LON 42959174 43099272 43899282 43989204 43819094 43419067 43059106 42959174
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