Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 312218
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312217
KSZ000-312315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1649
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0517 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SWRN INTO CNTRL/S CNTRL KANSAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 312217Z - 312315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER WATCH...WHICH COULD BECOME NECESSARY
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  SEVERE WIND GUSTS LIKELY WILL BECOME
THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH ANY SUBSTANTIVE INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 00-03Z.

DISCUSSION...ATTEMPTS AT SUSTAINED VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
NOW APPEAR UNDERWAY ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCING
COLD FRONT...FROM NEAR RUSSELL WEST SOUTHWESTWARD TO A WEAK SURFACE
LOW WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE DRYLINE EAST OF GARDEN CITY.
STRONG/DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND MIXING HAS YIELDED MODERATELY
LARGE CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG...BUT THIS IS GENERALLY BENEATH
VERY WARM AND STRONGLY CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR ADVECTING
EAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  ON THE SOUTHERNMOST FRINGE OF A
SEASONABLY STRONG CYCLONIC MID/UPPER JET NOW TURNING EAST OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES...IT DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE THAT FORCING COULD
WEAKEN CAPPING SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW INTENSIFYING STORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS EVENING.  IF THIS OCCURS...SEVERE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE
INITIALLY.  HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR VERY FAVORABLE
FOR STRONG DOWNBURSTS...AND STRONG COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT WHICH COULD
SUPPORT UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH.  AIDED BY SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENING /40-50+ KT AT 850 MB/...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS SHOULD BECOME THE MORE PROMINENT THREAT DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

..KERR/EDWARDS.. 08/31/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON   38320058 38769932 38939718 37809724 37129947 37520057
            38320058



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