Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 272216
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272216
KSZ000-280015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1752
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0516 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 272216Z - 280015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL AND A BRIEF TORNADO MAY
ACCOMPANY SCATTERED STORMS REMAINING ALONG THE DRYLINE THROUGH ABOUT
SUNSET.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AS A REMNANT WWD-MOVING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MERGING WITH THE DRYLINE OVER CNTRL KS. WHILE
HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S TO THE W OF
THE DRYLINE IS SUPPORTING MODERATE INSTABILITY...SURFACE TEMPERATES
HAVE COOLED RATHER RAPIDLY WITH PASSAGE OF THIS OUTFLOW IN S-CNTRL
KS. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN CONFINED ALONG THE DRYLINE. WITH A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN
MID-LEVEL WLYS PER DDC VWP DATA...CONVECTION SHOULD STRUGGLE TO
GREATLY ORGANIZE...ESPECIALLY WITH SRN EXTENT. BUT WITH A
STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ...A BRIEF TORNADO IS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF
N-CNTRL KS.

..GRAMS/GUYER.. 08/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   39869864 39949816 39929761 39609738 38079817 37269906
            37339988 38409960 39389913 39869864




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