Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 270853
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270853
ILZ000-MOZ000-271100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0798
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CENTRAL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 270853Z - 271100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A STRONGER STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH HAIL
APPROACHING 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND/OR THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER
WIND GUST ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN MO AND POSSIBLY REACHING
SWRN IL TOWARD 12Z.  HOWEVER...OVERALL SYNOPTIC TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST
MOST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE DURING THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT TO EARLY THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA
INDICATED AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS SWRN INTO SRN AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL MO SINCE 07-0730Z.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THIS
REGION OF MO...WHILE HAVING GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES OVERNIGHT...REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SRN EXTENT OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THIS
FEATURE SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM MO...BUT IN
THE SHORT-TERM THIS ASCENT COMBINED WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG A
SWLY 30-35 KT LLJ EXTENDING INTO SRN/ERN MO SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT LIFT INTO THE EARLY MORNING FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION.
RESIDUAL RESERVOIR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER OK/AR INTO CENTRAL
MO /MUCAPE UP TO 1500-2000 J PER KG/ AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
/7-7.5 C PER KM/ EXTENDING FROM ERN OK/NWRN AR INTO SRN/ERN MO MAY
PROVE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS WITH STRONGER
STORMS.  HOWEVER...A DECREASE IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUGGESTS STORM
ORGANIZATION WILL TEND TO REMAIN MINIMAL AND SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  THE 07Z HRRR AGREES WITH THE
SCENARIO FOR SIMILAR COVERAGE OF STORMS TO PERSIST THROUGH 10Z..AS
CURRENTLY INDICATED BY MOSAIC RADAR...AND THEN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
STORM DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER AS GREATER FORCING FOR ASCENT WANES.

..PETERS/HART.. 05/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   37439392 38379221 38719082 38779004 38178936 37708929
            36989022 36699131 36649230 36669343 37439392



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