Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 012048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012047
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-012315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1271
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...WRN MO AND NRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 012047Z - 012315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN KS AND
WRN MO LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. LARGE
HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND A COUPLE TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS. WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT 1
TO 2 HOURS ONCE CELLS BEGIN TO INITIATE.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1006 MB LOW OVER CNTRL KS
WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS ERN
KS AND CNTRL MO. AN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY IS LOCATED FROM NEAR
THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWD ALONG THE KS-MO STATE LINE WHERE MLCAPE
IS ESTIMATED FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG. SHORT-TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT
CONVECTION WILL INITIATE WHERE THE INSTABILITY AXIS MEETS THE FRONT
WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING SSEWD ACROSS ERN KS AND WRN
MO. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR INITIATION WOULD BE IN THE 2130 TO 2230
TIMEFRAME WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR RUN. THE WSR-88D VWP
AT KANSAS CITY AND SPRINGFIELD SHOW WIND PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 45 KT AND SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. LOOPED
HODOGRAPHS ALSO SUGGEST THAT A TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP WITH THE
MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS.

..BROYLES/HART.. 07/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   38269328 37829312 37019247 36459213 36099211 35649229
            35529276 35789347 36479483 37229593 38109642 38779644
            39279627 39609593 39629546 39349425 39069357 38269328



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