Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 210115
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210115
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-210345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1104
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0815 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Areas affected...Coastal areas of Mississippi...Alabama...and the
Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 210115Z - 210345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated tornado threat will evolve with isolated
convection across the discussion area over the next couple of hours,
with a more appreciable tornado threat potentially evolving
overnight.

DISCUSSION...Scattered banded and cellular convective structures
have evolved in the northeastern quadrant of T.S. Cindy.  A couple
of these storms have exhibited rotation near/north of Apalachicola,
FL, while other storms offshore are exhibiting rotation and may
threaten coastal areas from Mobile, AL eastward to Fort Walton, FL
over the next couple of hours.  Low-level shear has gradually
increased throughout the day in response to strengthening easterly
low-level flow associated with Cindy.  Instability is negligible in
most areas, but increases along and south of an east-west-oriented
baroclinic zone from near Plaquemines Parish, LA eastward to near
Tallahassee, FL.  As this zone shifts northward with time, the
tornado threat will increase as rotating cells migrate inland from
open waters.  The threat in the near term is too isolated to warrant
a tornado watch issuance, although this area will be monitored into
the overnight hours as instability increases across the region.

..Cook/Guyer.. 06/21/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX...

LAT...LON   30788910 30928811 31028676 30848550 30528480 30168468
            29778467 29658488 29708533 29918571 30208675 30228740
            30208812 30288878 30428921 30578924 30788910




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