Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 262010
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262010
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-262215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1546
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0310 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN IND...FAR NRN KY...AND SWRN INTO
CNTRL/ERN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 262010Z - 262215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A MARGINAL RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
EXIST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

DISCUSSION...WITH THE APPROACH OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS SERN IND AND SWRN/CNTRL/ERN OH ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF A NEARLY STALLED SFC COLD FRONT. COMPARED TO LOCATIONS FURTHER
E...MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IS SLIGHTLY
STRONGER...AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES ACROSS THE MCD AREA ARE
AROUND 30-35 KT PER RAP MESOANALYSIS. WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1000-2000
J/KG...ONGOING MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION ACROSS THE MCD AREA SHOULD
REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE
LACK OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONGER EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR VALUES SHOULD GENERALLY LIMIT A GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

..GLEASON/CARBIN.. 07/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IND...

LAT...LON   40778144 40118075 39108260 38768398 38648607 39048665
            39518647 39588594 40158338 40778144




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