Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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007
ACUS11 KWNS 300824
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300823
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-301000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0510
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0323 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX...WEST LA...FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 128...

VALID 300823Z - 301000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 128
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...REGENERATIVE STORMS ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BAND
ACROSS EAST TX MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS /POTENTIALLY BEYOND 10Z WW EXPIRATION/. PERSISTENT
ROTATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER STRATIFORM REGION ALONG THE
WARM FRONT IN SOUTHERN AR SHOULD FINALLY WEAKEN IN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS.

DISCUSSION...MOST INTENSE STORMS IN TERMS OF REFLECTIVITY HAVE
BECOME CONFINED TO THE PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BAND FROM SHELBY TO
MONTGOMERY/GRIMES COUNTY TX AS OF 0810Z. CONTINUED INFLUX OF RICH
MARITIME TROPICAL AIR SHOULD SUPPORT REGENERATIVE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH DAYBREAK...LIKELY EXTENDING SOUTH/EAST OF CURRENT WW.
ALIGNMENT OF THE STORM BAND PARALLELING THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTOR
SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ROBUST DAMAGING WIND THREAT. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD POOL MIGHT EVENTUALLY RESULT IN PROPAGATION
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE LOWER SABINE VALLEY.

FARTHER NORTH...A LONG-LIVED CIRCULATION WHICH EARLIER THIS MORNING
PRODUCED A PAIR OF TDS/S IN HARRISON COUNTY TX AND CADDO PARISH LA
HAS RECENTLY ENTERED UNION COUNTY AR. THIS APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN
RIDING ALONG A WEAK WARM FRONT WHICH HAS PROGRESSED NORTHWARD OVER
THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. OVERALL REFLECTIVITY AND SFCOA MLCAPE TRENDS
SUGGEST THIS ROTATING CELL SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITHIN AN
INCREASINGLY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR BRIEF TORNADOES.
FARTHER SOUTH...SHV VWP DATA HAS DEPICTED WEAKENING OF LOW-LEVEL
WINDS AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET HAS SHIFTED NORTH ACROSS AR...SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM MESOVORTICES ARE UNLIKELY.

..GRAMS.. 04/30/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON   32699371 33339304 33599271 33549224 33309206 32329276
            30729315 30049357 29779431 29709500 29699548 29859559
            30179556 31119465 32699371




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