Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 101905
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101905 COR
KSZ000-NEZ000-102100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1466
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Areas affected...Northwest into central KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 101905Z - 102100Z

CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...At least isolated severe storms capable of hail or wind
are expected throughout the day. One or two of the cells could
produce large amounts of hail.

DISCUSSION...Isolated severe storms with large hail threat persist
along the front across northwest KS. Severe wind gusts were also
measured recently in Sheridan county KS where the largest storm
continues to develop southeastward.

Surface analysis shows outflow has temporarily stabilized much of
western and southwestern KS with that surge now expanding into OK.
Some influence from this outflow may affect areas downstream of the
ongoing northwest KS storms. However, a corridor of undisturbed air
exists across north central KS, where surface winds remain light out
of the southeast. Given the long-lived nature of the Sheridan county
storm, and hodographs that are quite favorable for a prolific hail
storm (characterized by a deep layer of low-level easterlies beneath
increasing westerlies aloft), a small watch ahead of this activity
may be needed.

..Jewell/Goss.. 08/10/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39150147 39140091 39280034 39589991 39749958 40009938
            40199890 40139816 39509729 38679717 38149753 38039841
            38259927 38519978 38650039 38770109 38870149 39150147




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