Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 242347
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242346
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-250115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0712
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST CO/NORTHWEST KS/FAR SOUTHWEST NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 242346Z - 250115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL NEED TO BE COORDINATED SHORTLY
FOR THE REST OF NORTHEAST CO INTO NORTHWEST KS AND FAR SOUTHWEST
NEB.

DISCUSSION...STRONGER SURFACE HEATING AND NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO NORTHWEST KS AND NORTHEAST CO TO FAR
SOUTHWEST NEB HAS RESULTED IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION DOWNSTREAM OF
THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN NORTHEAST CO TO THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE NEB PANHANDLE.  THE STRONGEST STORM IN THIS COMPLEX IS
LOCATED IN SOUTHERN MORGAN COUNTY AND WAS MOVING TO THE EAST AT 25
KT...AND SHOULD EXIT WW 203 BY 01Z INTO YUMA COUNTY CO.  THE DRYLINE
WAS ANALYZED FROM GREELEY COUNTY KS NORTHWEST THROUGH CHEYENNE
COUNTY CO TO NEAR THE STORM IN MORGAN COUNTY.  A STRENGTHENING
E/SELY INFLOW OF MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA WILL ALLOW THE MORGAN STORM AND ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO
SPREAD EAST OF WW 203 THIS EVENING...AND POSSIBLY TO THE SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE DRYLINE.  AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED ALONG
THE SELY LLJ...FURTHER ENHANCING THE TORNADO THREAT.

..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 05/24/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON   39740421 40970380 40990208 40870131 40240102 39570066
            39150083 38700170 39510264 39740421



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