Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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494
ACUS11 KWNS 100639
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100639
IAZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-100845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1625
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Areas affected...Eastern NE...western IA...southwest MN...extreme
northeast KS/northwest MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 100639Z - 100845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Locally damaging wind and isolated hail remain possible
overnight.

DISCUSSION...A QLCS is ongoing early this morning from eastern NE
into northwest IA and southwest MN. Recent measured gusts have
generally been subsevere in the 40-45 kt range, and increasing
MLCINH with time and decreasing deep-layer shear with eastward
extent may tend to limit severe-wind potential somewhat. However,
substantial buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg) and a
well-established cold pool could still support intensification of
this QLCS on a localized basis, with isolated damaging gusts
possible. Relatively steep midlevel lapse rates could also result in
some hail potential with the stronger embedded cores, and also with
more discrete development ahead of the primary convective line.

..Dean/Guyer.. 07/10/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON   43949643 44109534 43989433 43149378 41589347 40669452
            39779589 39799701 40239868 40399846 40579800 41299665
            42199618 43229634 43949643

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN