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000
ACUS11 KWNS 030229
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030228
MSZ000-LAZ000-030430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0164
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0828 PM CST SUN MAR 02 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF LA AND SWRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 030228Z - 030430Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK MAY DEVELOP WITH LINEAR CONVECTION
MOVING EWD ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT.

DISCUSSION...02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM
ABOUT 40 NW JAN SWWD TO NEAR POE AND BPT. A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES HAS DEVELOPED ALONG IT DURING
THE PAST HOUR. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO A GLANCING
INFLUENCE OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER OK AND ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX. MODIFIED
00Z LCH RAOB SUGGESTS WEAK BUOYANCY REMAINS /MLCAPE AOB 1000 J/KG/
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE
60S ACROSS SRN INTO CNTRL LA. ALTHOUGH GREATER FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL REMAIN OVER THE COLD SECTOR...SOMEWHAT ORTHOGONAL DEEP-LAYER
FLOW TO THE PORTION OF THE FRONT ACROSS SWRN/CNTRL LA COULD A FAVOR
A SEMI-ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENT DEVELOPING TOWARDS THE MS VALLEY WITH
A PRIMARY RISK OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND. WITH ERN
EXTENT...DECREASING BUOYANCY AND WEAKER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PER
00Z JAN/LIX RAOBS WOULD LIKELY TEMPER INTENSITY OF THE LINE
OVERNIGHT.

..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 03/03/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   31509282 32089233 32349156 32479073 32309049 31999045
            31519072 30509146 29769239 29769307 29899355 30529342
            31509282