Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

ACUS11 KWNS 091103
SPC MCD 091102

Mesoscale Discussion 1793
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0502 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2017

Areas affected...Southern FL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 091102Z - 091300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong wind gusts, and perhaps even a brief tornado,
are possible across southern FL over the next several hours.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows a line of storms extending
from western Glades County southwestward to about 40 miles
west-northwest of EYW. Overall convective system is moving slowly
southeastward while storms embedded within the line are moving
northeastward (240 degrees) at 30-35 kt. Storm trends have shown
gradual intensification over the past hour or so with the storms
entering Hendry and Collier counties now showing 30 dBZ reaching
over 30 kft. Additionally, the surface observation at APF recently
measured a gust of 51 kt. Instability is limited (i.e. less than
1000 J/kg of MLCAPE on the latest mesoanalysis) and some convective
inhibition exists but given the increasing forcing for ascent and
the high theta-e airmass, occasionally strong updrafts are still
possible. Strongly sheared environment will also favor rotation
within the strongest storms, supporting the potential for a few
strong wind gusts and perhaps a tornado. Limited spatial extent and
marginal/transient nature of the threat are expected to preclude the
need for a watch.

..Mosier.. 12/09/2017

...Please see for graphic product...


LAT...LON   26098177 26388183 26808156 26838121 26588082 26198072
            25688068 25188071 25158094 25298120 25528124 25858147
            25898169 26098177 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.