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000
ACUS11 KWNS 232032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232032
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-232300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0387
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST COLORADO...FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...FAR
NORTHWEST KANSAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 232032Z - 232300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS
NOT NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
THAT A SFC BOUNDARY HAS STALLED OVER THE CO HIGH PLAINS...EXTENDING
EAST OF A 995-MB DENVER-AREA CYCLONE. DESPITE RELATIVELY DRY SFC
CONDITIONS N OF THIS BOUNDARY...SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE
EXISTS -- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 30S -- AMIDST A DEEP PBL
FOR VERY MARGINAL BUOYANCY. POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW IS BEING
AUGMENTED BY DIURNALLY ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS TO SUPPORT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES BETWEEN FORT
COLLINS AND AKRON. WITH THE APPROACH OF DCVA AND ASSOCIATED
MID-LEVEL LIFT AS IMPLIED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AN ADDITIONAL
UPTICK IN CONVECTION COULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STEEP
LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO DCAPE IN EXCESS OF 900
J/KG AMIDST 25-35F SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND 30-40 KT OF
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS AND PERHAPS A MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUST. THIS ACTIVITY COULD
SPREAD E OF NERN CO INTO FAR SWRN NEB AND FAR NWRN KS BY EARLY
EVENING. THE LACK OF STRONGER BUOYANCY AND THE PAUCITY OF
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE A GREATER SVR RISK FROM
ENSUING.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 04/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   39350213 39210355 39770456 40680426 41200307 41110197
            40730152 40070143 39350213