Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 250254
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250253
ILZ000-MOZ000-250330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1588
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0953 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL INTO E-CNTRL AND NERN MO / W-CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 250253Z - 250330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING GUSTS MAY CONTINUE.  IT REMAINS
UNCLEAR WHETHER OR NOT A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE
NEEDED DUE TO THE COVERAGE OF A POSSIBLE SEVERE-GUST RISK.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A ORGANIZED GUST FRONT/COLD POOL
WITH A COUPLE OF TSTM CLUSTERS MOVING ENEWD ACROSS W-CNTRL AND CNTRL
MO.  RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OVER
E-CNTRL MO IS VERY MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
AROUND 75 DEG F.  A BELT OF 40-45 KT H5 FLOW PER AREA WSR-88D VAD
DATA 00Z SGF/ILX RAOBS SUGGESTS AN ORGANIZED-THUNDERSTORM THREAT
FEATURING STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE GUSTS MAY CONTINUE DESPITE SLOW
COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.  A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF SWLY H85
FLOW OVER THE REGION IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS AND WOULD
PROMOTE A STRONG MOIST INFLUX INTO THE REGION AND PROMOTE ADDITIONAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT.  AS SUCH...THERE SEEMS TO BE AT LEAST SOME RISK
FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS AND A
NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE CONSIDERED OVER THE NEXT 15-60
MINUTES.

..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 08/25/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   39859309 40369044 39968952 39298934 38568992 38229348
            39189290 39859309



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