Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 251950
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251950
OKZ000-TXZ000-252145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0141
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251950Z - 252145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN THE
SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THERE IS
SOME POSSIBILITY FOR THE ISSUANCE OF A SVR TSTM WATCH.

DISCUSSION...VIS-IMAGERY-IMPLIED ACCAS ATTENDANT TO ASCENT AT THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF A MIGRATORY MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PER
MOISTURE-CHANNEL LOOPS IS EVIDENT NEAR AND S OF THE RED RIVER. THE
CHARACTER OF THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS IS EVOLVING...WITH MORE
ROBUST VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT RECENTLY NOTED...PERHAPS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THEIR PHASING WITH DIURNALLY DEEPENED PBL CIRCULATIONS. SFC
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A DRYLINE ROUGHLY ALIGNING WITH THE WRN EDGE
OF THE ACCAS ZONE FROM SFC LOW PRESSURE NEAR CLINTON OK SSWWD INTO
WRN N TX. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE IS WEAK. HOWEVER...WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO ITS W...ASSOCIATED WITH
NEAR-DRY-ADIABATIC 0-3-KM LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED CINH FOR A
SFC-BASED PARCEL...SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION COULD OCCUR
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS WOULD OCCUR EITHER WITHIN THE
ZONE OF ACCAS OR NEAR THE DRYLINE.

GIVEN STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING 1500-3000 J/KG
AMIDST 25-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR E OF THE DRYLINE...A
CONDITIONAL SVR-WIND/HAIL RISK EXISTS. IF MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT/UPSCALE GROWTH WERE TO OCCUR...A WW MAY BE NEEDED.
HOWEVER...WITH DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ONLY
MODEST...CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUSTAINED SFC-BASED
CONVECTION IS LIMITED. REGARDLESS...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

..COHEN/BUNTING.. 03/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON   33089743 32369866 32569993 33139981 33719955 34479933
            34489889 34219802 34079740 33089743




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