Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 281957
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281956
TXZ000-OKZ000-282130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0827
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OK...N AND NW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 281956Z - 282130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS SRN OK INTO NORTH TX. THE AREA IS
BEING CONSIDERED FOR A WW OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF W AND
FAR NW TX IS EXPECTED TO CONGEAL AND PROGRESS IN A GENERAL E-SEWD
DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS...EVENTUALLY ENTERING ADDITIONAL
PARTS OF NORTHWEST TX AND SOUTHWEST OK BY THE LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WAS ALSO OCCURRING
FARTHER E INTO S-CNTRL OK ALONG A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE AIR
MASS HAS DESTABILIZED SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE WAKE OF MORNING
CONVECTION AMIDST 70S SFC DEWPOINTS AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES...WITH MLCAPE NOW ESTIMATED AT 2000-3000 J/KG. THE PRIMARY
LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE ROBUST SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...BUT THE DEGREE OF BUOYANCY SUGGESTS A DMGG
WIND THREAT /ESPECIALLY WITH A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER
NW TX/ AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL PROBABLY STILL EVOLVE. THE
TORNADO THREAT SHOULD ALSO BE LIMITED BY WEAK SHEAR...ALTHOUGH A
TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

..ROGERS/GOSS.. 05/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON   35089864 35209772 35159692 34779630 33519579 31549804
            31049871 31089946 32209946 32969883 34139879 35089864



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