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000
ACUS11 KWNS 271913
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271912
NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-272015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1484
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...WRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 271912Z - 272015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SVR HAIL AND WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN NY INTO PARTS OF WRN NEW ENGLAND. COVERAGE
OF THESE THREATS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN A WEAK BAROCLINIC
ZONE GENERATED BY EARLIER CONVECTION...WHICH IS BEING REINFORCED BY
A COOLER AIR MASS DOWNWIND FROM LAKE ONTARIO ACROSS W-CNTRL NY.
ADDITIONAL TSTMS WERE DEVELOPING NWD TO NEAR/W OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN.
THE STRONGEST STORMS OVER THE REGION WERE LOCATED NEAR THE
ALBANY/TRI-CITY AREA AS OF 19Z. THE AIR MASS HAS DESTABILIZED IN THE
WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE EJECTING NEWD
INTO MAINE...WITH AN AXIS OF 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE CENTERED OVER THE
ERN HALF OF NY. WEAK SLY WINDS VEERING TO WLY IN THE MIDLEVELS IS
YIELDING SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SMALL ORGANIZED TSTM
CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. DUE TO THE MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND RELATIVELY SPARSE COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION...A WW DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED ATTM...BUT TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..ROGERS/HART.. 07/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...

LAT...LON   44917223 44797176 43977151 43017188 42237227 41767278
            41687346 41807411 42307446 42587503 42677538 43317517
            45037431 44917223