Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 190250
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190249
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-190345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1578
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0949 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NE IA...SRN WI...EXTREME SE MN/NRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 466...

VALID 190249Z - 190345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 466
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL
PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...WITH OVERALL RISK ANTICIPATED TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT OVER PARTS OF SRN WI.

DISCUSSION...GREATEST NEAR-TERM SEVERE RISK EXISTS IN THE FORM OF
DAMAGING WINDS WITH A BULGING SHORT-LINE SEGMENT NEAR/JUST N OF THE
LA CROSSE AREA. THIS PORTION OF A SEMI-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
SHOULD CONTINUE E/SE ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFTOVER FROM
DECAYING CONVECTION ACROSS ERN WI AND LK MI. LSE VWP DATA SAMPLED
LITTLE CHANGE IN DIRECTION/SPEED WITH HEIGHT...BUT 30-35 KT
LOW-LEVEL W/SWLYS SHOULD FAVOR POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. THIS RISK SHOULD PERSIST ALONG
THE NRN PERIPHERY OF RESIDUAL WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES /IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S/ ACROSS SW WI/NE IA PRIOR TO CONVECTION
OVERSPREADING THE MORE STABLE/PREVIOUSLY OVERTURNED AIR MASS ACROSS
MOST OF S-CNTRL/SE WI.

..GRAMS.. 08/19/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON   44409150 44289029 44088940 43788898 43368852 42998824
            42728838 42638857 42368910 42289091 42339232 42499302
            42669333 43209337 43549245 44409150




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