Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 302036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302036
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-302230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1640
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OHIO...SOUTHERN
INDIANA...PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 302036Z - 302230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE REGION INTO THE EVENING HOURS
MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
ENCOURAGE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS
INSOLATION IN CLOUD BREAKS AND THROUGH TRANSLUCENT MID/HIGH CLOUDS
HAVE STEEPENED SFC-3-KM LAPSE RATES. WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1000
J/KG...SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY EXISTS FOR A FEW ROBUST UPDRAFTS...AS HAS
BEEN IMPLIED BY MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY. PW VALUES AROUND 1.75 INCHES
PER GPS DATA WILL BOLSTER WATER-LOADING PROCESSES TO ENHANCE
DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL. FURTHERMORE...WITH DCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG IN
AREAS WHERE INSOLATION HAS BEEN MAXIMIZED -- I.E. CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY -- A FEW WET MICROBURSTS CAPABLE
OF ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILMINGTON OHIO AND
LOUISVILLE KENTUCKY VWPS INDICATE 25-30-KT SWLYS AT 3 KM AGL...WHICH
WILL /1/ ENHANCE CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT TO ENCOURAGE THE RISK
FOR STRONG-TSTM WINDS AND /2/ OFFER SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR A
POSSIBLE WEAK TORNADO. HOWEVER...WITH MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...POOR
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER
ASCENT...THE OVERALL SVR POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED.

..COHEN/HART.. 08/30/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON   37568742 39128563 40668343 40638226 39948159 38558285
            37228505 36738672 36928770 37568742



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