


Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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433 ACUS11 KWNS 091803 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091803 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-092000- Mesoscale Discussion 1616 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Areas affected...Lower Michigan into far northwest Ohio Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 091803Z - 092000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A couple of weak supercells may develop across parts of lower Michigan through the afternoon with an attendant threat for large hail and severe winds. Watch issuance is not anticipated given the limited coverage of this threat. DISCUSSION...Early thunderstorm development is underway across central to southern lower MI as convection percolates along several subtle boundaries over the region, including a weak cold front, a lake-breeze boundary, and a weak surface trough. Despite somewhat nebulous surface features and weak low-level winds, GOES-derived winds suggest shear within the cloud-bearing layer is between 25-30 knots. This is slightly stronger than anticipated by morning guidance, and hints that the kinematic environment is supportive of organized convection. Similarly, a cold bias is noted in morning guidance with observed temperatures running 2-4 F warmer than anticipated. Consequently, surface-based CAPE estimates in recent mesoanalyses may be more representative of the thermodynamic environment and suggests around 2000-2500 J/kg SBCAPE is in place across lower MI. Overall, these trends point towards a favorable convective environment for weak supercells and/or organized clusters. Meager forcing for ascent will likely limit severe storm coverage, which should negate the need for watch issuance, but a few instances of large hail/severe winds appear possible through late afternoon. ..Moore/Mosier.. 07/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... LAT...LON 41798533 42488561 42938563 43398545 43788504 44188345 44178293 43958265 43488245 43198235 42868236 42478255 41698297 41418318 41198351 41098376 41098409 41138453 41238478 41798533 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN