Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 141731
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141731
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-142000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1893
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN INTO NRN GA...WRN SC AND WRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 141731Z - 142000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WE ARE MONITORING FOR ANY INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY FOR
CONDITIONAL THREAT OF A TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE MAP AND SATELLITE SHOW A COLD FRONT ADVANCING
EWD ACROSS WRN GA INTO ERN TN/KY WITH A LARGE ZONE OF MAINLY
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION AHEAD ACROSS CNTRL GA INTO THE WRN
CAROLINAS. SHEAR PROFILES ARE VERY STRONG ACROSS THE AREA WITH 0-1
KM SRH OVER 250 M2/S2 NEAR ATLANTA AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
BENEATH THE UPPER JET.

REFLECTIVITY VALUES HAVE INCREASED ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS WRN GA
RECENTLY WHERE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS STRONGEST. THE LIMITING FACTOR
FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE INSTABILITY...WHICH IS MINIMAL
GIVEN LACK OF APPRECIABLE COOLING ALOFT AND MINIMAL HEATING. POCKETS
OF HEATING DO EXIST FARTHER N ACROSS WRN NC WITH TEMPERATURES NOW
ABOVE 80 F.

WITH TIME...THIS AREA OF FORCING MAY EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH
SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR FROM NRN GA INTO WRN NC...POSSIBLY
PROVING SUFFICIENT FOR A ZONE OF TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.
MESOSCALE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR A
POSSIBLE WATCH.

..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 10/14/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

LAT...LON   32438466 33328447 34958439 35468294 36458140 36518073
            36228004 34998075 33708207 33288279 32488384 32328428
            32438466



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