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000
ACUS11 KWNS 271840
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271839
INZ000-ILZ000-271945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1483
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0139 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR E-CNTRL IL...CNTRL IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 271839Z - 271945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER E-CNTRL IL...AND A PRE-FRONTAL
SFC TROUGH OVER CNTRL IND. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDITIONALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL...AND A WW IS POSSIBLE
IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PERCOLATING CU FIELD
ALONG A SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT...WHICH WAS POSITIONED FROM JUST W OF
VPZ TO NEAR DEC AS OF 1830Z. ADDITIONAL CU WAS DEVELOPING INVOF A
WEAK SFC TROUGH/WIND SHIFT S/W OF THE INDIANAPOLIS AREA. THESE AREAS
ARE REMOVED FROM THE STRONGEST FORCING ALOFT...AS AN UPPER JET IS
NOSING INTO NRN IL AND W-CNTRL IND THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY LIMIT
TSTM DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...STRONG
HEATING AMIDST MODERATELY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IS YIELDING
MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. LONG AND STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS
ENHANCED BY ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL BE CONDITIONALLY
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING LARGE TO
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE SURROUNDS TSTM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

..ROGERS/HART.. 07/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IND...ILX...

LAT...LON   38808770 39198797 40148781 40438737 40448694 40318583
            40078554 39578543 38888578 38718684 38808770

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