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Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 211504
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211503
WVZ000-OHZ000-211600-

Mesoscale Discussion 1377
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1003 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Areas affected...much of WV

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 211503Z - 211600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong/near severe wind gusts will be possible
with a southeastward-moving complex of thunderstorms.  A watch is
not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A complex of thunderstorms, with origins over eastern
Iowa Thursday evening, was moving southeast at around 30 kts over
southern/southeast Ohio and entering western portions of West
Virginia at 1500Z.  Downstream, filtered diurnal heating will
maintain a corridor of moderate surface-based buoyancy.  Weak
deep-layer shear should limit the longevity of this convective
system in agreement with latest high-resolution guidance, however in
the short term at least some potential will exist for isolated
strong/near severe gusts over the next couple of hours.  The overall
severe risk should remain isolated and a watch is not anticipated.

..Bunting/Dial.. 07/21/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON   38168205 38418239 38758229 39218197 39508183 39648149
            39598090 39458038 39248015 38948011 38578047 37968105
            37928167 38168205

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