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ACUS11 KWNS 021728
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021728
OKZ000-TXZ000-022230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0160
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CST SUN MAR 02 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...HIGH PLAINS OF WEST TX TO SWRN-CENTRAL OK

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 021728Z - 022230Z

SUMMARY...A BAND OF CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED SLEET/SNOW SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF WEST
TX TOWARD 18Z INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING ENEWD
INTO SWRN OK THIS AFTERNOON.  THE AREA OF GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
THIS WINTER WEATHER HAZARD IS GENERALLY 35 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM 35 SE CVS TO 35 WNW OKC.  ADDITIONAL ONGOING ELEVATED
TSTMS OVER SWRN OK SHOULD REACH CENTRAL OK /NEAR OKC METRO/ BETWEEN
19-20Z SUPPORTING ENHANCED PRECIPITATION RATES OF SNOW AND SLEET.

DISCUSSION...AN ARCTIC AIR MASS HAS SPREAD SWD ACROSS THE TX HIGH
PLAINS AND MUCH OF OK WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS.  PRONOUNCED MID
LEVEL COOLING EXPECTED ALONG THE TRACK OF THE ERN NM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN STEEPENING OF 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES WITH NWD
AND NEWD EXTENT INTO WRN/SRN OK.  STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT
SPREADING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF W TX AND TX PANHANDLE INTO
WRN/CENTRAL OK ATTENDANT TO DPVA WITH THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN ELEVATED CONVECTION.  THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS
OF THE HRRR /11-15Z/ SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY
18-19Z...AND SPREADING ENEWD.  A LEADING AREA OF ONGOING/SUSTAINED
TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER SWRN OK TO INVOF CDS MAY BE AFFECTED NOW BY
INCREASING UVVS WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH...AND THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD TRACK ENEWD POTENTIALLY REACHING CENTRAL OK /IN VICINITY AND
JUST WEST OF OKC/ BETWEEN 19-20Z.

..PETERS.. 03/02/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   35779926 35719778 35309759 34849827 34170035 33920114
            33740173 33700214 33650278 33950291 34280281 34650255
            34880153 35230040 35639978 35779926

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