Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 142348
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142348
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-150115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1717
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...SWRN NEB...NWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 142348Z - 150115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A RISK OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WIND
WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTENSE
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO.
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DURATION AND COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT
MAKES WATCH ISSUANCE UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...AT 2340Z...AN INTENSE TSTM CLUSTER WAS ONGOING ACROSS
EXTREME NERN CO...WITH BASEBALL-SIZED HAIL REPORTED AT 2312Z IN
LOGAN COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY EVOLVED OUT OF A PLUME OF RELATIVELY
WEAK HIGH-BASED CONVECTION THAT INTENSIFIED AS IT ENCOUNTERED
STRONGER INSTABILITY...WITH MUCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG NOTED PER
RECENT MESOANALYSIS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS IS MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES...WITH VERY STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING A CONTINUED HAIL RISK. A DAMAGING
WIND RISK MAY ALSO EVOLVE IF UPSCALE GROWTH OF THE CLUSTER
CONTINUES.

THE LONGEVITY OF THE SEVERE RISK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLUSTER MAY BE
LIMITED...WITH LOWER THETA-E AND WEAKER INSTABILITY NOTED WITH EWD
EXTENT. THE CLUSTER WILL LIKELY ATTEMPT TO PROPAGATE SEWD ALONG THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT...POTENTIALLY APPROACHING AREAS NEAR OR JUST
NORTH OF GLD BETWEEN 01-02Z IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXTENT AND DURATION OF THE THREAT...WW
ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

..DEAN/HART.. 09/14/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON   40370285 40580273 40840239 40900180 40650115 40180066
            39740048 39160083 38970123 39020169 39170219 39480272
            40210292 40370285




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