Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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941
ACUS11 KWNS 210353
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210352
TXZ000-210515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0711
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1052 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...EDWARDS PLATEAU...ADJACENT AREA OF RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 192...

VALID 210352Z - 210515Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 192
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS...BUT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN GENERAL APPEARS TO BE
DIMINISHING.

DISCUSSION...UPDRAFTS APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING...WITH STORM TOPS
COLLAPSING TO THE NORTHWEST OF ROCK SPRINGS...THOUGH STRONG WIND
GUSTS MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
NEAR/WEST THROUGH SOUTHWEST OF ROCK SPRINGS THROUGH 04-05Z.  THERE
HAS BEEN SOME RECENT INTENSIFICATION IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
EVIDENT WITHIN RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA TO THE EAST OF JUNCTION.
AND FURTHER CONSOLIDATION AND UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH WITHIN A
ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE NORTHWEST OF SAN
ANTONIO MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THROUGH AROUND 04-06Z.  AS
THIS OCCURS...HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING COULD STILL CONTRIBUTE TO
ANOTHER DOWNBURST OR TWO...ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG SURFACE GUSTS.
OVERALL THOUGH...LARGELY DUE TO GENERALLY WEAK DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW
AND MORE MODEST SHEAR ACROSS AND EAST OF THE HILL COUNTRY... SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL SEEMS LOW ENOUGH THAT A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..KERR.. 05/21/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   29880068 30620017 30849924 31129775 30149719 28989826
            29380028 29880068




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