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000
ACUS11 KWNS 142323
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142323
ILZ000-MOZ000-150100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1715
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0623 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Areas affected...West central through northeast Missouri

Concerning...Tornado Watch 501...

Valid 142323Z - 150100Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 501 continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of
tornadoes, is expected to increase with thunderstorms spreading
across central into northeast Missouri through 8-9 PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...In the wake of one smaller scale short wave
perturbation migrating northeastward into the Upper Midwest, another
impulse on its heels is migrating rapidly into/through the lower
Missouri Valley.  Forcing with this feature appears to be providing
the support for an evolving convective system south through east of
the Kansas City metropolitan area, which seems likely to intensify
further, through the 01-02Z time frame, aided by continued inflow of
weak to moderately unstable warm sector air.  In conjunction with
continued deepening of a surface cyclone across Iowa into the Upper
Midwest, south/southwesterly 850 mb flow is forecast to strengthen
in excess of 50 kt as far south of the lower Missouri Valley.
Enlarging low-level hodographs are expected to contribute to
increasing damaging wind potential with the convective activity,
along with at least some potential for tornadoes.

..Kerr.. 10/14/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   39399305 40039218 39919129 39419099 38589190 38189298
            37979426 38379446 39399305




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