Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 031958
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031958
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-032230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1291
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT FRI JUL 03 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AR...NRN LA...WRN AND CNTRL MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 031958Z - 032230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SRN
AR...NRN LA AND WRN TO CNTRL MS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW ISSUANCE
MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS FROM THE
ARKLATEX EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES INTO THE TN VALLEY
WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F. IN SPITE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...SFC
TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 F ALONG THE MOIST AXIS
WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE LOCATED FROM CNTRL LA EXTENDING
NEWD INTO FAR SE AR AND WRN MS WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN
THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 30 TO 40
KT OF WLY FLOW FROM 3 TO 5 KM AGL EVIDENT ON REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS
SHOULD SUPPORT CELL ORGANIZATION. THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE
SHOULD INCREASE AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO RISE THIS AFTERNOON. IF
A COLD POOL CAN ORGANIZE...THEN WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE MOST LIKELY
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE WITH THE MORE INTENSE SHORT LINE SEGMENTS.
HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS CELLS MOVE EWD TOWARD THE
MS RIVER WHERE THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED.

..BROYLES/MEAD.. 07/03/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   32409001 32229117 32359244 32699321 33489345 33979310
            34049170 34199066 34028969 33528941 32848961 32409001



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