Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 312130
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312129
MEZ000-312300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1506
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0429 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...MAINE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 312129Z - 312300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS MAINE
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS EVENING. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...MESOSCALE RAP DATA CURRENTLY SHOWS AN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS MAINE WHERE SBCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE
500 TO 750 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT
OVER WRN NEW ENGLAND. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ACROSS MAINE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
WSR-88D VWP AT GRAY MAINE SHOWS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM 0-3 KM AGL
WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. 500 MB TEMPS OF -16 C MAY ALSO SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT.

..BROYLES/MEAD.. 07/31/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

LAT...LON   44866937 45026890 45306845 45836792 46286894 46247004
            45377043 45017027 44866937




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