Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

388
ACUS11 KWNS 241054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241054
NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-241200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1145
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0554 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 241054Z - 241200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Strong showers and storms may be capable of localized wind
damage and perhaps a brief tornado. However, the threat should be
too brief/localized for watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...As of 1045Z, a line of strong showers and thunderstorms
was quickly advancing across New Jersey and adjacent New York, aided
by a passing low-amplitude shortwave trough. KDIX VWP data indicate
a kinematic profile characterized by strong low/mid-level flow
upwards of 50-60 kt. In turn, precipitation-drag may transfer some
of this momentum to the surface, resulting in localized
gusty/damaging winds. However, the thermodynamic profile will remain
quite marginal for a more widespread threat. Additionally, while the
strength of the low-level shear may offer an opportunity for a brief
tornado, orientation of the low-level shear vectors is fairly
parallel to the convective line. As such, the tornado threat appears
quite marginal as well, and watch issuance will not be needed prior
to the line pushing offshore.

..Picca/Dial.. 06/24/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...

LAT...LON   39017569 40467480 41097390 41177247 40537255 39407361
            38597460 38587486 38727544 39017569




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.