Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 040725
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040724
NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-041030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1603
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT TUE AUG 04 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN WV PANHANDLE NORTHERN VA...MD...NORTHERN
DE...SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN PA...NJ...SOUTHEAST NY INCLUDING MUCH OF
LONG ISLAND...SOUTHERN CT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 040724Z - 041030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND INTO
PART OF SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT TO
EARLY MORNING.  THE MAJOR METRO AREAS INCLUDING NEW YORK
CITY/PHILADELPHIA/BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON DC CAN EXPECT THESE STORMS TO
MOVE THROUGH 08-10Z.  MOST OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SUB-SEVERE...THOUGH THE EPISODIC STRONGER CORES WILL HAVE SOME
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 50
KT...WHILE HAIL WILL BE AN ISOLATED...SECONDARY THREAT.

DISCUSSION...AT 0715Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED CLUSTERS OF
STORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST NJ...SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST
PA...AND ACROSS THE EASTERN WV PANHANDLE/WRN MD PANHANDLE WITH STORM
MOVEMENT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 40 KT.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AND
MODIFIED LWX 00Z SOUNDING INDICATED SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION HAS
BECOME SUFFICIENTLY STRONG SUGGESTING THESE STORMS ARE ELEVATED.
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...ATTENDANT TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE NORTHEASTERN STATES LONGWAVE TROUGH...WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
INTO EARLY MORNING.  THIS ASCENT COMBINED WITH EXPECTED
STRENGTHENING OF WSWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS/DEEP SHEAR WITHIN A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT /PW VALUES UP TO 1.4-1.5 INCHES/ AND 850-500-MB LAPSE
RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM SUGGEST SOME STORMS WILL BE ORGANIZED.
ALTHOUGH HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE ELEVATED
STORMS...DRY...SUB-CLOUD AIR OBSERVED IN AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS COULD
ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS TO REACH OR LOCALLY EXCEED SEVERE LEVELS.  THIS
POTENTIAL IS SIMILAR TO THE STORM THAT MOVED THROUGH HGR PRODUCING A
48-KT GUST AT 0630Z.

..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 08/04/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   40727520 41397376 41517257 40587306 39577457 39137610
            38787789 38837896 39187865 40127698 40737551 40727520



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