Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 232032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232032
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-232230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1138
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Areas affected...Portions of southern/eastern OK...north TX...and
far west-central AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 232032Z - 232230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated damaging wind and perhaps large hail threat
may increase with thunderstorms developing along a cold front this
afternoon. Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms developing along a
southward-moving cold front should increase in coverage over the
next several hours as they encounter an increasingly moist and
unstable airmass. Surface temperatures to the south of the front
have mostly warmed into the low to mid 90s, and plentiful low-level
moisture combined with at least modestly steep mid-level lapse rates
have resulted in strong MLCAPE ranging from 2500-3500 J/kg. The main
uncertainty regarding the overall severe threat across this region
remains weak low and mid-level winds. Related effective bulk shear
values of 20 kt or less will likely preclude a more organized
damaging wind threat. However, at least isolated instances of
marginally severe hail and strong/damaging winds will remain
possible through this evening with pulse-severe-like convection
along the front. At this time, the prospect for watch issuance
remains unclear, and will largely depend on short-term
radar/observational trends.

..Gleason/Guyer.. 06/23/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33769786 34289717 35369546 35739399 35469392 34949450
            34529453 33199452 32609621 32509749 32969783 33769786



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