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000
ACUS11 KWNS 191926
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191925
TXZ000-NMZ000-192100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1130
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM AND PORTIONS OF WRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 191925Z - 192100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS MAY POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND AS THEY MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF
ERN NM. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG SWRN EXTENSION OF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OVER WRN TX. A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...AN EXPANSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NWRN TX WWD
THROUGH WRN TX JUST SOUTH OF LUBBOCK THEN NWD INTO ERN NM JUST EAST
OF RATON.  RESPECTABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /LOW 60S DEWPOINTS/ HAS
ADVECTED INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WARM SECTOR OF WRN TX AND ERN NM
RESULTING IN STRONG INSTABILITY /2500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE/. CONVECTION
IS IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NM AND SWRN
TX...AND OTHER STORMS MAY INITIATE ALONG SRN EXTENT OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS A PORTION OF WRN TX. TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR HEIGHTS
TO RISE AS RIDGE BUILDS AND MID LEVEL WINDS SLOWLY WEAKENING FROM
THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM CNTRL THROUGH
NERN NM SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE SMALL EXCEPT ON COOL SIDE OF
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STRONG MODIFICATION OF THIS BOUNDARY IS
OCCURRING OVER ERN NM WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY WARMED TO THE
LOW 80S ON THE COOL SIDE. ANY STORM THAT CAN INTERACT WITH THE
MODIFIED PORTION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER ERN NM MIGHT BECOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 06/19/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   33960462 35380465 36480438 36490385 34750355 33380224
            32290243 32050353 32570423 33960462

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