Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 211903
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211902
WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-212100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1754
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...WV...KY...TN...VA...AL...GA...NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 211902Z - 212100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE FROM THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SOUTHWEST TO THE TN RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD. A FEW STORMS
COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WINDS. ANTICIPATED STORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW WATCH ISSUANCE THRESHOLDS.

DISCUSSION...A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE
AXIS...IN COMBINATION WITH DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WILL AID ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE OH VALLEY TO
TN VALLEY EAST TO THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. MOST
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESIDE OVER SOUTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE MCD DOMAIN....TN/AL...WHERE STRONGER HEATING OF A MOIST
AIRMASS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE AOB 1500 J/KG. WHILE WEAKER LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND LACK OF STRONGER SHEAR MAY LIMIT STORM
COVERAGE AND/OR ORGANIZATION...SOME CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTION MAY
EVOLVE NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES INTO EARLY EVENING WITH A CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED LOCALLY STRONGER THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS.

FARTHER NORTHEAST IN THE MCD DOMAIN...AND OVER THE
APPALACHIANS...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED/WEAK BUT VERTICAL
SHEAR AND FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY STRENGTHEN IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
STRONG MID/UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A GENERAL
INCREASE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED HERE AS WELL. A
COUPLE OF THE MORE PERSISTENT CELLS/LINES MAY POSE A THREAT FOR
LOCALLY STRONG/GUSTY WINDS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MUCH
OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE AND A WATCH IS
NOT EXPECTED.

..CARBIN/BUNTING.. 09/21/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...ILN...LMK...
OHX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   39318162 38478070 36868110 35058400 34468781 35258800
            36248731 37438483 39318162



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