Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44

000
ACUS11 KWNS 190003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190003
NJZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-190100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1527
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0703 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Areas affected...Portions of eastern VA...eastern MD...DE...NJ...and
southeast NY

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 455...

Valid 190003Z - 190100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 455
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe-weather threat continues mainly across eastern and
southeastern parts of WW 455, while counties and independent cities
west of the primary band of storms can be canceled from this watch.
Short-term severe threat exists south of WW 455, with county and
independent city expansion by local WFO possible.

DISCUSSION...Trends in storm intensities/maintenance indicated the
strongest storms extended from east-central NJ through central DE,
eastern MD to southeast VA.  The environment east of this band of
thunderstorms, while having weaker effective shear, remains
moderately unstable.  This combined with south/southeasterly surface
winds inflow into the northeast-to-southwest-oriented band of storms
should continue to enhance convergence for maintenance of this
activity with it remaining strong to severe through mid evening
(around 9 PM EDT).  The increase in storm intensities south of WW
455 where the environment remains moderately unstable should support
additional strong to severe storms, such that an expansion of this
watch in area and time appears a likely occurrence.

The increase in surface-based inhibition in the wake of the
aforementioned band of storms and along the Atlantic coastal areas
of VA, MD, and NJ (east of the sea breeze boundary) suggest severe
threat will remain low, if not non-existent, in those locations.

..Peters.. 08/19/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

LAT...LON   37847740 38437668 38707646 39327521 40037455 40447410
            40447396 39457417 38817481 38037521 37507582 37227640
            37197691 37417764 37847740




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.