Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 032209
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032208
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-032345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1599
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0508 PM CDT MON AUG 03 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN NM...SERN CO...SWRN KS...AND THE
TX/OK PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 032208Z - 032345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN
NM AND SERN CO MAY POSE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS
THEY MOVE SEWD. DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...WW
ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST HOUR
HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NERN NM AND SERN CO. THIS RECENT DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY IN
RESPONSE TO THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM
NRN UT SEWD TO SERN CO AND MODEST CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. THE AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH THE TX/OK PANHANDLES
AND ADJACENT AREAS IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE...WITH MID 60S SFC
DEWPOINTS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG PER RAP
MESOANALYSIS. HOWEVER...THE FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS
NOT OVERLY STRONG...WITH THE VWP PROFILE FROM KAMA SHOWING VEERING
LOW-LEVEL WINDS OF 20 KT OR LESS THROUGH 3 KM...AND RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE MCD AREA SHOWING 30 KT OR LESS BELOW 300 MB.
THESE MODEST WINDS WILL PROBABLY TEND TO LIMIT SUPERCELL STORM
STRUCTURES...WITH MULTICELL/BOWING LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF MAINLY
WIND DAMAGE MORE LIKELY WITH TIME. MOST CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NERN NM/SERN CO AND
THE FAR NW OK PANHANDLE WILL GROW UPSCALE INTO A SMALL MCS THROUGH
THE EVENING AS IT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. IF THIS
SCENARIO WERE TO BECOME APPARENT...THEN WW ISSUANCE WOULD BE
POSSIBLE.

..GLEASON/CORFIDI.. 08/03/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35950376 37000307 37420247 37390171 36780047 35490061
            35200168 35230266 35490378 35950376




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