Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 150448
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150448
NCZ000-150545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1897
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 150448Z - 150545Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT
WITH PERSISTENT TSTM ACTIVITY OCCURRING ALONG A CONFLUENCE ZONE. A
WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...A LONG-LIVED CONFLUENCE ZONE HAS BEEN A GENESIS REGION
FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT FROM NEAR AND NORTH
OF EWN TO OFF THE COAST WELL SSE OF ILM. RECENT TRENDS IN VOLUMETRIC
RADAR DATA INDICATE A GRADUAL DEEPENING OF TSTMS FROM BEAUFORT TO
CARTERET COUNTIES WITHIN A VERY MOIST AND AT LEAST WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT BASED ON THE 00Z MHX SOUNDING. SINCE THAT OBSERVATION
WAS TAKEN...CURRENT VAD DATA FROM MHX SHOW PERHAPS A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN DEEP-LAYER SLY FLOW WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR OF AROUND 25 KT.

FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE WIND FIELD IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE MOVEMENT OF A POTENT VORTICITY MAXIMUM INTO THE SERN
STATES. AS SUCH...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR A BRIEF
TORNADO. A MORE ROBUST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
PRECLUDED BY WEAK TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AND RESULTING MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. THUS...A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

..MEAD.. 10/15/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

LAT...LON   34547725 35357738 36097732 36277695 36067653 35377625
            34747634 34487655 34347674 34317695 34547725



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