Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
ACUS11 KWNS 250150
SPC MCD 250149
Mesoscale Discussion 0208
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017
Areas affected...Portions of Ohio...northern Kentucky...western
Pennsylvania...and western West Virginia
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 38...
Valid 250149Z - 250345Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 38
SUMMARY...Strong/marginally severe storms are progressing eastward
across Watch 38 this evening, with locally damaging winds the main
threat. While downstream watch issuance appears unlikely, convective
trends will be monitored this evening.
DISCUSSION...Small clusters/bands of cells, associated with a
pre-frontal trough, are shifting east across Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 38 this evening. Occasional bowing segments and a few elevated
cores have been noted across Ohio and Kentucky this evening, and a
deep layer of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft should maintain some
threat for a few stronger wind gusts. However, nocturnal cooling,
combined with surface dew points in the upper 40s downstream, will
most likely favor a downward trend in the intensity of this broken
line. Nonetheless, as stronger forcing for ascent overspreads this
corridor from the west, enough erosion of convective inhibition may
occur to maintain a few stronger cells east of the ongoing watch.
Therefore, while probability of downstream watch issuance is less
than 40%, convective trends will continue to be monitored.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 41448267 41768222 42208043 41898005 40238019 39148081
38088240 37848400 37998521 39148467 39848418 41448267