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000
ACUS11 KWNS 122048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122048
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-122245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1345
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB / SRN HALF OF IA / FAR NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 122048Z - 122245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE INITIATION TIMING REMAINS UNCLEAR BUT THE
POTENTIAL ISOLD SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATION TRENDS OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS HAVE SHOWN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CU FIELD ALONG AND
BEHIND A COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT OVER CNTRL IA WWD INTO FAR ERN NEB.
CLOUD DEBRIS AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW HAVE RESULTED IN A DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM CNTRL IL ARCING WNWWD INTO W-CNTRL IA
INTERSECTING THE FRONT.  THE AIRMASS S OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARIES CONTINUES TO HEAT AND DESTABILIZE WITH TEMPS RISING
THROUGH THE UPPER 80S AND INTO THE LOWER 90S AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

19Z RAP SOUNDINGS AND THE 18Z DVN RAOB MODIFIED FOR CURRENT SURFACE
CONDITIONS OVER SRN IA...RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY APPRECIABLE
REMAINING CINH AND UPWARDS OF 1500-3000 J PER KG MLCAPE.  THE KDMX
VWP SHOWS AROUND 40 KT AT H5 FLOW AND WOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL STORM
ORGANIZATION...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS --ONCE STORMS FORM.  DESPITE A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHEARING NEWD ACROSS WI INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT
INFLUENCING THE REGION NAMELY IN THE FORM OF UPPER ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH A POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION AND THE
CONCURRENT STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING TOWARDS
THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND NRN IL WILL BE NEEDED TO PROMOTE STORM
DEVELOPMENT.  ONCE THIS OCCURS...A SEVERE THREAT MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF ISOLD LARGE HAIL...DMGG WINDS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WILL
LIKELY PROMPT A WATCH ISSUANCE.

..SMITH/HART.. 07/12/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   40239725 41129686 42009481 42639235 42239057 41409030
            40789125 40529204 40449472 39969645 40239725

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