Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 302244
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302243
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-010015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1859
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0443 PM CST WED NOV 30 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN GA...SC...SRN AND CNTRL NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 514

VALID 302243Z - 010015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 514
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND
DAMAGE AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
CELLS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL CONTINUE TO A SEVERE THREAT...THE THREAT
SHOULD BE LOCALIZED ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A
DOWNSTREAM WEATHER WATCH.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
TROUGH FROM WESTERN VIRGINIA SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN
GEORGIA...ALONG WHICH A MULTI-SEGMENTED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
ONGOING. THE LINE IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A 30 TO 45 KT LOW-LEVEL
JET IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE LINE IN SPITE OF VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY. THE LATEST WSR-88D VWP OUT OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA
SHOWS VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR ESTIMATED AT 83
KNOTS.  THE VWP ALSO SHOWS STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH 0-3 KM STORM
RELATIVE HELICITY AT NEAR 700 M2/S2. THIS WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE WITH THE FASTER MOVING BOWING
LINE SEGMENTS. A TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH ROTATING CELL
ELEMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. DUE TO THE WEAKENING OF LIGHTNING AND
MID-LEVEL REFLECTIVITY TRENDS OVER THE LAST HALF HOUR SUGGEST THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN LOCALIZED FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 11/30/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...FFC...

LAT...LON   35418186 34608274 33888310 33068320 33078195 33688069
            34207968 34647870 35607885 36217980 36008105 35418186



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