


Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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435 ACUS11 KWNS 112016 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112016 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-112215- Mesoscale Discussion 1644 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Areas affected...portions of southeastern Kansas...northern Oklahoma and the far eastern Texas Panhandle. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 112016Z - 112215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storm development later this afternoon may pose a risk for sporadic damaging gusts and some hail. A WW is unlikely. DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer destabilization is underway across much of the southern and central Plains ahead of a slow-moving cold front. Afternoon satellite imagery showed strong surface heating was resulting in gradual deepening of cumulus along and ahead of the front from eastern KS to northern OK. As continued heating and weak ascent from a passing upper-level trough overspread the area, a gradual increase in thunderstorms is expected this afternoon and evening. Focused largely along the front, modest vertical shear will favor a complex mode of multi cell clusters. 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE observed from the 18z LMN/AMA soundings will support transient stronger updrafts capable of some hail with these storms. A deep and well-mixed boundary layer with prominent inverted-V structure should also support occasional stronger downdrafts capable of damaging gusts. Observational trends and recent CAM data suggest storm development will occur first along the front across eastern KS before spreading southwest into northern OK and the TX Panhandle. As storm clusters and outflow begin to amalgamate, the risk for damaging gusts will slowly increase into early evening. Given the limited storm organization a WW is not expected. ..Lyons/Mosier.. 07/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 37019997 37999749 38949637 39179588 38999514 38519471 36849567 35339851 34950006 36400017 37019997 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN