Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 292253
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292252
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-300015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1776
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0552 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...ADJACENT SE WY...SWRN NEB

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 510...

VALID 292252Z - 300015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 510 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND ADJACENT SOUTHEAST WYOMING/SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...THROUGH 03Z.  THIS INCLUDES A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
INCREASING TORNADIC POTENTIAL ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF NORTHEAST
COLORADO.  AT THE PRESENT TIME...IT APPEARS THAT A NEW WW MAY NOT BE
NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...BENEATH DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE STRONG CYCLONIC MID/UPPER JET STREAK...NOW NOSING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SCATTERED VIGOROUS STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/NORTHEAST COLORADO.
THIS INCLUDES A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST
MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

STRONGER LINEAR LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE COLORADO SPRINGS AND TRINIDAD
AREA...AND APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ADVANCING NORTHEAST OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE EASTERN COLORADO STATE BORDER AREA THROUGH
THE 01-03Z TIME FRAME.  AS THIS OCCURS...A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPSCALE
GROWING/INTENSIFYING SQUALL LINE...BEFORE ENCOUNTERING INFLOW OF
MORE STABLE OR STABILIZING /WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR AS IT APPROACHES WESTERN KANSAS/SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA.

UNTIL BEING OVERTAKEN BY THE APPROACHING STRONGER LINEAR
FORCING...DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY WILL PERSIST ANOTHER
COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS AND EAST OF THE LIMON/AKRON AREAS.  SOUTHERLY
850 MB FLOW IS IN THE PROCESS OF STRENGTHENING FROM 30-50 KTS ACROSS
THIS REGION...AND ENLARGING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS COULD STILL SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF INCREASING TORNADIC POTENTIAL... BEFORE THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS TO STABILIZE THE INFLOW SOURCE REGION.

..KERR.. 09/29/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   41160477 41720479 42040392 41730239 41130189 40040181
            38890208 38560271 38570381 39100404 40240408 41160477



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