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000
ACUS11 KWNS 192151
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192151
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-192315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1532
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0451 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Areas affected...Portions of the central High Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 192151Z - 192315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should gradually increase in
coverage/intensity over the next 1-2 hours. A few storms will be
capable of large hail and damaging winds, and trends will be
monitored for potential watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery depicts a gradual
uptick in towering cumulus across the region late this afternoon.
While several updrafts over Colorado have struggled to overcome
drier mid-level air, regional radar data suggest a few more robust
cores are developing over far northeastern Colorado, aided by
large-scale ascent from a passing impulse. As cells spread/develop
eastward into greater boundary-layer moisture, they will encounter
an increasingly favorable thermodynamic environment, characterized
by MLCAPE values around 2500-3500 J/kg. Surface-to-500mb flow
remains weak/modest, but veering with height and stronger
anvil-layer flow may yield a few organized/rotating updrafts,
capable of large hail. Additionally, steep low/mid-level lapse rates
will foster the potential for severe gusts in deeper cores. As such,
conditions are being monitored for an increase in convective
organization, which could necessitate watch issuance.

..Picca/Goss.. 08/19/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   39850251 41090265 41350225 41900109 42450012 42589978
            42469924 41839874 40939887 39839956 39470074 39520137
            39850251