Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 022304
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022304
ARZ000-MOZ000-030000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1286
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0604 PM CDT THU JUL 02 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 022304Z - 030000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/HAIL RISK IS EXPECTED ACROSS NRN AR
THIS EVENING.  THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SMALL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN THE NEXT HOUR.

DISCUSSION...A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS SAGGING SWD FROM MO TOWARD NRN
AR...WHERE STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAVE
SUPPORTED MODERATE BUOYANCY /MLCAPE NEAR 2500 J PER KG/ S OF THE
FRONT.  NRN AR IS ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF THE SOMEWHAT STRONGER
MID-UPPER WNWLY FLOW...AND THIS AREA WILL BE BRUSHED BY A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING SEWD OVER MO.  THUS...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS PROBABLE ACROSS NRN AR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND MARGINAL SUPERCELLS THROUGH LATE
EVENING.  THE COVERAGE/DURATION OF ANY WIND/HAIL RISK IS SOMEWHAT IN
QUESTION...BUT A SMALL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH COULD BECOME
WARRANTED FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING.

..THOMPSON.. 07/02/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   36459333 36519249 36499146 36419125 35969122 35679148
            35599253 35669326 35859360 36269350 36459333



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