Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 251253
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251253
TXZ000-251500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0759
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN EDWARDS PLATEAU...HILL COUNTRY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251253Z - 251500Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A TSTM HAS FINALLY INTENSIFIED DOWNSTREAM OF A PERSISTENT
SUPERCELL NEAR THE RIO GRANDE. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE DEGREE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM COVERAGE THIS MORNING. BUT IF OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...A WW ISSUANCE MAY BE REQUIRED.

DISCUSSION...A STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM HAS DEVELOPED OVER
PARTS OF NE EDWARDS/NRN REAL COUNTIES DOWNSTREAM OF A LONGER-LIVED
SUPERCELL OVER SW EDWARDS/NRN KINNEY COUNTIES AS OF 1250Z. RECENT
HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DIMINISHING THIS CONVECTION
THROUGH LATE MORNING IN THE MIDST OF PEAK MLCIN LIKELY FROM THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE TO HILL COUNTRY. WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY WILL SUSTAIN
ITSELF S OF THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PERMIAN BASIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS UNCERTAIN. BUT A RISK FOR ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WINDS MAY PERSIST
INTO MIDDAY.

..GRAMS/HART.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   29680059 30339979 30999874 30929807 30479809 29829825
            28829887 28519929 28429967 29680059



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