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ACUS11 KWNS 142035
SPC MCD 142035

Mesoscale Discussion 1713
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Areas affected...northern/central Missouri...far southern Iowa...and
west-central Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 142035Z - 142300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The discussion area is being monitored for increasing
severe potential over the next 2-3 hours, which may necessitate a WW

DISCUSSION...A complex surface pattern currently exists across the
discussion area.  Both a warm front and differential heating zone
are separating a moderately unstable airmass (nearly 2000 J/kg
MLCAPE) over central Missouri from rain-cooled air to the north.
Isolated convection was located along and just north of these
boundaries, although weak mid-level lapse rates and a lack of
forcing for ascent aloft has resulted in sub-severe convection so
far this afternoon.

Continued surface heating and convergence along the front may be
enough to encourage isolated surface-based development that will
pose a risk for wind/hail and perhaps a tornado over the next 2-3
hours, especially near the differential heating zone.  While this
initial activity may be too isolated to necessitate a WW, increasing
convective activity upstream in eastern Kansas may further organize
and pose a severe risk initially in northwestern Missouri -
spreading eastward across the discussion area over time.  A WW
issuance is possible for this activity, and convective trends will
continue to be monitored.

..Cook/Hart.. 10/14/2017

...Please see for graphic product...


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