Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 021642
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021641
MSZ000-TNZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-021845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0073
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1041 AM CST TUE FEB 02 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF MS AND PORTIONS OF ADJACENT WRN TN...NE LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 021641Z - 021845Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY AT SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON.
TIMING REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH STRONG CAPPING EVIDENT IN THE MORNING RAOB
FROM JACKSON HAS TENDED TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION...PERSISTENT NARROW
BANDS OF CONVECTION HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE
ZONES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/GULF COAST REGION.  ONE PERSISTENT BAND HAS BEEN SOUTH OF
MEMPHIS TN THROUGH THE GREENVILLE MS AREA.

BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ARE ALLOWING INSOLATION TO CONTRIBUTE TO
GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE REGION...AS
LOW-LEVELS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN.  AS MID-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO
TRANSITION TO BROADLY CYCLONIC...AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY
FALL...SUFFICIENT WEAKENING OF INHIBITION TO ALLOW FOR DISCRETE
STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS AT LEAST POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 18-21Z.

GUIDANCE APPEARS GENERALLY SUGGESTIVE THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.  HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ARE
ALREADY MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORNADOES...ONCE BOUNDARY LAYER STORM DEVELOPMENT COMMENCES.

..KERR/GOSS.. 02/02/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   32039178 34129072 35178938 34528852 32098948 30929147
            32039178



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