Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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543 ACUS11 KWNS 091950 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091949 MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-NCZ000-092145- Mesoscale Discussion 1619 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Areas affected...Far northern North Carolina into Virginia and southern Maryland Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 497... Valid 091949Z - 092145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 497 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorm intensification is ongoing across northern North Carolina into Virginia. An increase in damaging/severe wind potential is expected over the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...A leading convective band emanating off the Blue Ridge Mountains is becoming established from northern VA into far northwest NC. Latest GOES IR imagery shows rapid cloud-top cooling associated with several deeper embedded convective cores, signifying robust intensification. Buoyancy immediately downstream continues to increase with temperatures warming into the upper 80s/low 90s and MLCAPE approaching 2500 J/kg as of the 20z RAP mesoanalysis. This air mass should promote further intensification over the next several hours and is favorable for strong water-loaded downbursts. At this point, storm mode should primarily be linear given mean flow oriented along the developing band. 25-30 knot bulk shear should support a few embedded surging segments within the line that may pose a few focused corridors of damaging/severe winds with gusts as high as 55-65 mph. Latest guidance hints that this potential should be maximized over the next few hours from the NC/VA border into central VA. ..Moore.. 07/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP... LAT...LON 37117722 36797775 36427866 36217940 36097999 36018056 36028104 36108130 36378131 36648072 36838020 37157960 37467918 37927853 38337804 38967762 39177729 39087654 38887620 38477605 37947618 37507668 37117722 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN