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000
ACUS11 KWNS 140623
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140622
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-140715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0347
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0122 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR/NERN LA AND CENTRAL MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 140622Z - 140715Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED FROM NERN LA AND FAR SERN AR INTO
PARTS OF CENTRAL MS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  ENVIRONMENT
/FURTHER DESTABILIZATION AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR/ SUGGESTS A TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST FROM NERN LA INTO
CENTRAL MS.  MEANWHILE...A THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ADVANCE
E/SEWD INTO THIS REGION ATTENDANT TO A LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER NERN-EAST CENTRAL AND SRN AR.

DISCUSSION...AT 06Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTM DEVELOPMENT
INCREASING FROM FAR NERN LA INTO WRN MS WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF SSW-NNE
ORIENTED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOCATED AHEAD OF AN E/SEWD MOVING
LINE OF STORMS THAT EXTENDED FROM NERN-EAST CENTRAL AND SRN AR.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ENEWD
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AT THIS TIME...WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO
TRACK INTO THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN 30 METER 500-MB
HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  A 100 KT SWLY UPPER-LEVEL
JET WILL BE SUSTAINED INTO THE SRN EXTENT OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS
AN UPSTREAM TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...A 50-60 KT SSWLY LLJ WILL TRANSLATE EWD INTO MS DURING
THE NEXT 6 HOURS...ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED THE AIR MASS HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
DESTABILIZING FROM ERN LA INTO MS...AND THIS TREND WILL PERSIST AS
THE MOISTURE RETURN PERSISTS ALONG THE LLJ.  THESE FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMICS COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OVERNIGHT SHOULD AID IN AN INCREASE IN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 04/14/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   33769314 33959184 34649094 34489023 34148962 33498899
            33178886 32468947 31999083 32079172 32409222 32759277
            33209303 33769314

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