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ACUS11 KWNS 151623
SPC MCD 151623

Mesoscale Discussion 0184
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1023 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Areas affected...Portions of southern GA and northern FL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 151623Z - 151900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for increasing severe
potential through the afternoon. While Watch issuance is not likely
owing to anticipated limited severe coverage, environmental and
convective trends will continue to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Warm-sector destabilization continues across the
region, ahead of a cold front advancing eastward -- presently
analyzed from central GA through the central FL Panhandle. With
surface dewpoints in the lower/middle 60s and diurnal heating
ongoing, modifications to the Tallahassee 12Z sounding suggest
MLCAPE around 500-750 J/kg with little capping. Convection along a
pre-frontal confluence axis from northwest of Savannah GA to near
Albany GA -- largely without lightning production -- will continue
to spread eastward across the region through the afternoon. Some
intensification of this activity is possible -- especially after
17Z. Meanwhile, additional convection may continue to develop
farther east, aided by diurnally deepening boundary-layer
circulations amidst weak warm advection.

With stronger ascent displaced to the north of the relatively richer
moisture across the area, and veered flow throughout the warm sector
restricting convergence along the cold front and pre-frontal
confluence axis, low-level ascent will remain quite weak. This
should limit prospects for sustained/vigorous updraft development,
especially given the marginal buoyancy. Nevertheless, given
effective shear around 50-60 kt and ample low-level speed shear, and
a more cellular convective mode, isolated damaging wind gusts and
perhaps a brief/weak tornado could accompany convection through the

If more robust destabilization or convective development were to
become apparent, Watch-issuance probabilities could subsequently

..Cohen/Hart.. 02/15/2017

...Please see for graphic product...


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