Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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316
ACUS11 KWNS 232225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232225
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-240030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1379
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0525 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...EXTREME SRN WI AND NRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 412...

VALID 232225Z - 240030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 412
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND WILL PERSIST FROM
EXTREME ERN IA INTO NRN IL AND EXTREME SRN WI THROUGH MID
EVENING...THOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NRN
IL THROUGH ERN IA. FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT
FOSTERED BY AN MCV AND ATTENDANT LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUSTAINED STORMS NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RESERVOIR OF STRONG INSTABILITY SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY...AND VWP FROM DAVENPORT INDICATES 150 M2/S2 0-1 KM
STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AS WELL AS 40 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR. THE MOST
ORGANIZED STORM WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND AND A BRIEF TORNADO IS APPROACHING THE
IA/NWRN IL BORDER...MOVING INTO EXTREME NWRN IL.

..DIAL.. 07/23/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

LAT...LON   41639100 42859042 43028902 42878773 41638778 41498970
            41639100




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