Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 201836
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201835
TXZ000-202100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0707
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0135 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 201835Z - 202100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER
THE SWRN TX AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PRIMARY THREATS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NCNTRL
TX SWWD TO SOUTH OF MIDLAND. WHAT APPEARS TO BE A TERRAIN INDUCED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR FORT STOCKTON ADVANCING SWD
WITH A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH AND SWWD FROM THIS
FEATURE. LOW CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT PROMOTING HEATING OF THE SFC
LAYER AND 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT ALONG SWD ADVANCING FRONT AND TROUGH FEATURE WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS DESTABILIZED...AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM HAS
ALREADY FORMED OVER THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF MARFA. CAPPING INVERSION
RESULTING FROM A MODEST EML MIGHT DELAY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ALONG
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES...BUT AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM VERTICAL
SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT IS SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN
THREATS.

..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 05/20/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   30590292 31190321 31620306 31860243 31640167 30920169
            29990201 29850255 29670283 29970335 30590292



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