Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 180611
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180610
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-180815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1728
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0110 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL THROUGH ECNTRL KS INTO SWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 180610Z - 180815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING FROM NCNTRL THROUGH ECNTRL KS
INTO SWRN MO WILL POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THROUGH 08Z.
AT THIS TIME...ANY HAIL EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY ISOLATED
AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS STORMS CONTINUE FROM NCNTRL KS SEWD THROUGH
SWRN MO. ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING ALONG A NW-SE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC
ZONE WHERE MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT EXISTS.
THIS ZONE OF ASCENT IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE MEAN CLOUD-LAYER FLOW
SUGGESTING STORMS WILL DEVELOP SEWD THROUGH THE MORNING. STORMS ARE
EMBEDDED WITHIN MODERATE MUCAPE...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
30-35 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR THAT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW CELLS
TO DEVELOP UPDRAFT ROTATION. THIS PARAMETER SPACE WILL SUPPORT A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL NEXT COUPLE HOURS. TREND MAY BE FOR
MOST STORMS TO CONGEAL INTO MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH TIME WHICH MAY
TEND TO MITIGATE A MORE SUSTAINED LARGE HAIL THREAT.

..DIAL/MEAD.. 09/18/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   39619828 38939585 37639312 36649292 36589374 37109493
            38839854 39619828




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