Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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573
ACUS11 KWNS 250236
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250236
MOZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-250330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0323
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0936 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Areas affected...Central Arkansas northward into central Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 250236Z - 250330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue across the region
into the overnight hours. Small hail and a strong thunderstorm wind
gust will be possible with the strongest thunderstorm cores. A watch
is not likely.

DISCUSSION...A large area of rain with embedded thunderstorms will
continue into the overnight within a zone of broad, moist warm-air
advection. Mid-level lapse rates on the order of 6-7 C/km and
most-unstable CAPE generally less than 500 J/kg will limit the
overall severe threat. However, given the strength of the deep-layer
shear and continued forcing for ascent, isolated small hail or a
strong thunderstorm wind gust or two may be possible with the
strongest thunderstorm cores. A watch is not likely.

..Marsh/Thompson.. 03/25/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...

LAT...LON   34589144 34749331 36919368 38229340 38969303 39169179
            39069092 38419017 37128976 35228995 34609074 34589144




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