


Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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164 ACUS11 KWNS 112036 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112036 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-112230- Mesoscale Discussion 1645 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Areas affected...parts of southeast Wyoming...western Nebraska and northern Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 112036Z - 112230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Developing storms will likely pose a risk for hail and damaging gusts into this evening. A WW is possible. DISCUSSION...Initial high-based storms developing/occurring across the higher-terrain of southeastern WY and northern CO are showing signs of intensification. Located within a post-frontal upslope flow regime, inhibition has been slow to diminish this afternoon. However, strong heating and weak ascent form several perturbations in the westerly flow aloft will continue to support gradual storm development/maturation. MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg will support strong updrafts as storms move off the higher terrain and develop along the front across western NE. 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should allow for some organization into supercells and longer-lived clusters. With moderately steep lapse rates in place, hail is expected, along with isolated severe gusts. Initial storm organization may be slowed somewhat by lingering inhibition and relatively weak forcing. Storms remaining close to the terrain should gradually intensify before moving into the lower elevations later this afternoon/early this evening. As convection continues to increase in coverage and intensity, a severe watch may be needed. ..Lyons/Mosier.. 07/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 39450160 39360215 39130295 39010388 38890475 39210550 39950593 41550639 41700477 41470282 41140177 39450160 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN