Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
ACUS11 KWNS 031834
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031834
COZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-032000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0871
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 PM CDT WED JUN 03 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...FAR WRN NEB...CNTRL AND NE CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 031834Z - 032000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN WY SWD
INTO CNTRL AND NE CO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. A
FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 20Z ACROSS THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS MUCH
OF ERN WY SWD ALONG THE FRONT RAGE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S F. SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED TO NEAR 70 F ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MCD AREA WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY IN MUCH OF ERN CO AND WRN WY WITH THE DENVER 18Z
SOUNDING SHOWING SBCAPE NEAR 1800 J/KG. THE LATEST GOES-14 1 MINUTE
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CUMULUS AND GLACIATION
OCCURRING IN THE LARAMIE RANGE. THIS CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND MOVE EWD ACROSS SERN WY WITH ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. IN ADDITION...THE 18Z SOUNDING AT NORTH PLATTE NEB SHOWS 40 KT
OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH COMBINED WITH 700 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR
8.0 C/KM WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. THE
BACKED SELY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL CREATE SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
FOR TORNADOES WITH THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS. A WIND DAMAGE
THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP AS CELLS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND MATURE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES/MEAD.. 06/03/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON   42910634 41600580 39610517 39160471 38920410 39170328
            39820293 40570302 42230367 43420422 44010448 44550498
            44730580 44540645 43930660 42910634



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.