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000
ACUS11 KWNS 271914
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271914
VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-NCZ000-272115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1485
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN KY...NERN TN AND EXTREME SWRN VA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 445...

VALID 271914Z - 272115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 445 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF WW 445 IN THE NEAR
TERM INCLUDING ERN KY...NERN TN AND EXTREME WRN PORTIONS OF VA.
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER WEST ACROSS CNTRL KY AND NRN
MIDDLE TN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...ENEWD ADVECTION OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR FROM THE
DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR HAS RESULTED IN AN OVERALL INTENSIFICATION
OF STORMS THAT WERE PREVIOUSLY ELEVATED. SEVERAL STORMS OVER ERN KY
HAVE EVOLVED INTO SUPERCELLS AND ARE LIKELY INGESTING AIR FROM
WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY OVER SERN KY WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 80S. THE VWP FROM JACKSON KY
INDICATES LARGE 0-2KM HODOGRAPHS WITH VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 60 KT AT 5 KM RESULTING IN STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR.
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING INTO THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS SERN KY AND EVENTUALLY NERN TN.

FARTHER WEST...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE
STRATOCUMULUS ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS SWRN KY
APPROACHING THE TN BORDER. SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPER CUMULUS HAS ALSO
BEEN OBSERVED...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CNTRL KY
AND MOVE INTO NRN MIDDLE TN. LOW-LEVEL WINDS HAVE VEERED TO WLY IN
THIS REGION RESULTING IN SMALL 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS...BUT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR OF 40-50 KT REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.

..DIAL.. 07/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...

LAT...LON   37658559 38348439 37858266 37178203 36118213 35748403
            36208589 36388683 36848720 37278630 37658559

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