230
ACUS11 KWNS 101652
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101651
NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-101845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1627
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Areas affected...Northeast Ohio into northern Pennsylvania and
western New York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 101651Z - 101845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms developing through the afternoon
will be capable of damaging winds. Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery and lighting data show the early
stages of thunderstorm development across northeast OH into western
NY within a diffuse surface trough and along developing lake breeze
boundaries. Thunderstorm coverage should slowly increase through the
afternoon as temperatures warm and baroclinic circulations
strengthen along the lake breeze boundaries. Despite warm/moist
low-level conditions, modest mid-level lapse rates should limit
overall buoyancy values to around 1000-1500 J/kg. Additionally,
deep-layer wind shear over the region remains fairly meager with
regional VWPs and morning RAOBs sampling mid/upper-level winds of
around 20-30 knots. Given weak low-level flow, this will be adequate
for some degree of storm organization and persistence, but should
modulate overall convective intensities. Watch issuance is not
expected, but a few instances of damaging winds appear possible as
storms develop through the afternoon.

..Moore/Mosier.. 07/10/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON   40968248 41188220 43437605 43517545 43387513 42997473
            42627468 42187482 41947534 40228061 40088127 40048180
            40148226 40388246 40648249 40968248

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH