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000
ACUS11 KWNS 240228
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240228
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-240400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1453
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0928 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SE MT...NE WY...NW SD...FAR SW ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 240228Z - 240400Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
TWO ACROSS FAR SE MT AND MAY AFFECT NW SD/SW ND AS WELL. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND WW ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
CNTRL MT SEWD INTO NCNTRL WY WITH A MOIST CORRIDOR LOCATED IN FAR
ERN MT. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F WITH THE LATEST
RAP DATA SHOWING MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG THE MOIST
CORRIDOR. SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT
IN POWDER RIVER COUNTY MT. THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED NEAR THE CENTER
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND IS WEAKLY FORCED. THE LACK OF
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT RELATIVELY
ISOLATED. HOWEVER...THE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG WITH 40
TO 50 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. ANY STORM THAT EXHIBITS ROTATION SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL. MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AS THE CELLS MATURE AND MOVE CLOSER TO THE STRONGER
INSTABILITY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 07/24/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...

LAT...LON   45900625 45070622 44310541 44520381 45750318 46530390
            46420527 45900625