Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 290239
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290239
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-290345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1226
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0939 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN AND ERN MO INTO SRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 290239Z - 290345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH 367 MAY BE EXTENDED IN AREA/TIME LOCALLY.
OTHERWISE...A NEW WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.  SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 368 WILL ALSO BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT ITS 06Z
EXPIRATION...IF IT IS NOT CANCELLED EARLIER.

DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH NOT CLEAR...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ISOLATED STORM
INTENSIFICATION ACROSS THE ST. LOUIS METRO WAS SUPPORTED BY
ENHANCEMENT OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL
SPEED MAXIMUM.  NEW MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT THIS FORCING
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST SOUTHEASTWARD...ROUGHLY ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH 04-06Z.

IN GENERAL...THOUGH...VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BECOME
INCREASINGLY SPARSE IN COVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED
WIND SHIFT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND
SOUTHERN KANSAS.  PEAK CONVECTIVE INTENSITIES HAVE ALSO BEEN
TRANSITIONING DOWNWARD IN WEAKER /AND WANING/ BOUNDARY LAYER
INSTABILITY.  THESE GENERAL TRENDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..KERR/CORFIDI.. 06/29/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   38859002 38868804 37588810 36629082 36699193 37449277
            38089091 38859002



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