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000
ACUS11 KWNS 191811
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191810
TXZ000-191945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1128
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0110 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN THROUGH NCNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 191810Z - 191945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND AND LARGE HAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

DISCUSSION...CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER NWRN TX CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY
SEWD. STRONG DIABATIC WARMING HAS BOOSTED SFC TEMPERATURES INTO THE
UPPER 80S ALONG MOIST AXIS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 70...BUT
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE RATHER WARM /7C AT 500 MB/. LATEST OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY /1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE/ IN WARM
SECTOR DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MCS. TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR STORMS TO
INCREASE ALONG SWD ADVANCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS IT INTERCEPTS WARM
MOIST AIR WITHIN THE DESTABILIZING AND WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER.
DEEP LAYER WINDS ARE RATHER MODEST WITH WEAK SLY NEAR SFC WINDS
VEERING TO WNWLY 25 KT AT 500 MB. THIS WIND PROFILE IS AT BEST
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION...BUT THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL PROMOTE A FORWARD PROPAGATING SYSTEM WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS NEXT FEW HOURS.

POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS INCLUDE RISING HEIGHTS...WARM AIR
ALOFT...MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERTICAL SHEAR SO ANY WW
ISSUANCE WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 06/19/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON   33479884 33319848 32239742 31249896 32330040 32790034
            33129946 33479884

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