Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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395
ACUS11 KWNS 281827
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281827
SCZ000-GAZ000-282100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0482
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0127 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST GA INTO SOUTHERN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 281827Z - 282100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM
THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GA INTO SOUTHERN SC.

DISCUSSION...SIMILAR TO STORMS THAT HAVE FORMED IN SOUTHWEST
GA...THE SHORT/ARCED BAND OF TSTMS EXTENDING FROM EMANUEL TO JEFF
DAVIS COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GA APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING ALONG
EASTWARD-MOVING GRAVITY WAVES...WHICH EMANATED FROM THE MCS LOCATED
ACROSS AND OFFSHORE OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.  THE SOUTHEAST BAND
OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE EAST INTO A DESTABILIZED
ENVIRONMENT...WHERE SURFACE HEATING IS SUPPORTING STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  THIS COMBINED WITH RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN MLCAPE THUS FAR UP TO AROUND 1500 J/KG.
ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL WESTERLY FLOW FIELD WILL MAINTAIN EASTWARD MOVEMENT
INTO THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
SHORT-TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR DO NOT PROVIDE CLEAR GUIDANCE
WITH THE TIMING...INTENSITY...AND/OR COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHERN GA TO SOUTHERN SC TODAY.  HOWEVER...BASED ON
THE OBSERVED AFOREMENTIONED DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT...LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...WITH NO NEED FOR
WATCH ISSUANCE.

..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 04/28/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...

LAT...LON   32808135 32938091 32558048 31878117 31338162 31378232
            31618297 32118255 32478245 32588220 32808135




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