Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 051659
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051659
FLZ000-GAZ000-051830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1304
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 AM CDT SUN JUL 05 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 051659Z - 051830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE ERN
FL PANHANDLE AS TSTMS CONTINUE EWD. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN
THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT.

DISCUSSION...RECENT REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN
TSTM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF A CLUSTER OF TSTMS IN CALHOUN AND GULF
COUNTIES IN THE CNTRL FL PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE TSTMS IN SE
GA SWWD INTO THE CLUSTER IN CALHOUN AND GULF COUNTIES. LONG-LOOP
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS CLUSTER IS LOCATED AT THE INTERSECTION OF
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ANOTHER OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE WRN FL PANHANDLE
EARLIER. THE CLUSTER HAS REMAINED AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AND HAS RECENTLY EXHIBITED INCREASE FORWARD-PROPAGATION...WHICH WILL
LIKELY PERSIST GIVEN THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF IT. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS INCREASED FORWARD-PROPAGATION AND UPDRAFT
ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO CELL MERGERS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE TSTMS
CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE ERN FL PANHANDLE. ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
THREAT PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR A WW.

..MOSIER/MEAD.. 07/05/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   29808339 29848358 29998392 30068435 29898454 29818472
            29828481 30028496 30238505 30468500 30768469 30888383
            30938377 30838321 30238309 29708318 29808339




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