Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 291829
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291828
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-292100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1569
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0128 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN LOWER MI...FAR ERN IND...AND WRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 291828Z - 292100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND THEY MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED STRONG/GUSTY WINDS. WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER NRN ONTARIO MOVES NEWD TOWARDS HUDSON BAY. TEMPERATURES ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90...WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. POOR
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 5.0 DEG C/KM AHEAD OF THE FRONT PER 12Z
DTX SOUNDING SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH...WITH MLCAPE
ESTIMATED BY RAP MESOANALYSIS AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE MCD
AREA SUPPORTED MAINLY BY DIURNAL HEATING OF THE LOW LEVELS. SOME
STRONGER FLOW AROUND 30-35 KT BETWEEN 3-6 KM IS MOVING OVER THE NRN
PORTIONS OF THIS REGION PER LATEST VWP FROM KDTX...WHICH MAY BE
PROMOTED TO THE SFC THROUGH CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS. GIVEN THE LINEAR
NATURE OF THE FRONT AND MARGINAL BULK SHEAR...MULTICELL CLUSTERS
WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG/GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN STORM MODE.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS THEY ENCOUNTER A DRIER AND LESS UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER N-CNTRL/NERN OH.

..GLEASON/GOSS.. 07/29/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...

LAT...LON   43098405 43698379 44078318 44088279 43838254 43058239
            42548258 42198297 41858289 41668253 40858268 40088311
            39428372 39448445 39528492 40038489 41078490 42078442
            43098405



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