Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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598
ACUS11 KWNS 270336
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270336
ARZ000-OKZ000-270430-

Mesoscale Discussion 0853
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1036 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Areas affected...Portions of eastern Oklahoma...northwest
Arkansas...southwestern Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 270336Z - 270430Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorm development over east-central
Oklahoma may pose a risk for severe hail and wind, and perhaps a
tornado. It remains unclear to what extent additional development
will occur, but a watch would likely be needed for more than
isolated development. Trends continue to be monitored closely.

DISCUSSION...A couple of strong thunderstorms have developed along a
warm front across east-central Oklahoma as of 0325z. The storms were
located within a strongly unstable environment with surface-based
CAPE of around 3500 j/kg. This degree of instability coupled with
45-50 kts of effective shear would result in a risk for large hail
and damaging winds, and perhaps even a tornado given proximity to
the warm front and 200 m2/s2 of low-level SRH. There are, however,
concerns regarding storm longevity and coverage given the presence
of a pronounced cap on the 00Z Norman OK and Little Rock AR
soundings, with a noticeably weaker cap on the 00Z Springfield MO
sounding. Should confidence increase in greater storm coverage then
a watch would be possible.

..Bunting/Guyer.. 05/27/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...

LAT...LON   36269545 36359528 36499447 36359380 36129365 35729373
            35559387 35019449 34719504 34899560 35269591 35659608
            36269545




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