Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
037 ACUS11 KWNS 291829 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291828 NEZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-292030- Mesoscale Discussion 1509 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Areas affected...eastern WY...the NE Panhandle ...southwest SD Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 291828Z - 292030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...At least isolated large hail and severe gusts are likely, with scattered coverage possible by late afternoon. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is expected. DISCUSSION...Initial, lower-topped convection has formed across far southeast MT towards the Black Hills. This activity is expected to strengthen over the next couple hours amid modest MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg and effective bulk shear around 40 kts. While the parameter space is a step-down from yesterday, which should mitigate overall intensity, the coverage of storms should be greater by peak heating. Additional storms should develop within the weak upslope flow regime across southeast WY. Both areas may eventually converge in the NE Panhandle to far southwest SD vicinity by early evening. A few supercells with large hail are most likely in the northern regime surrounding the Black Hills. Severe gusts may be the primary hazard farther south where multicell clustering dominates. ..Grams/Hart.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... LAT...LON 45350502 44520346 43690208 42970166 42050152 41470218 41160293 41120431 41070513 42440530 43820586 44550635 45350502 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN