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ACUS11 KWNS 222054
SPC MCD 222054

Mesoscale Discussion 1126
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Areas affected...Portions of western/central KS into south-central

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 222054Z - 222330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds may
occur with thunderstorms forming along a cold front over the next
several hours. Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...Strong daytime heating has encouraged surface
temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 90s across
western/central KS into south-central NE as of 2045Z. A weak cold
front draped from northeast to southwest across this region will
provide a focus for low-level convergence and possible convective
development over the next few hours. 20Z RAP Mesoanalysis shows CIN
eroding from west to east along the front, and recent visible
satellite imagery shows several attempts at initiation across
southwestern KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates emanating from the
higher terrain of western/central CO have overspread this region,
and combined with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 60s are
contributing to generally 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE.

The strongest mid-level winds will likely remain a bit to the north
of western/central KS and south-central NE, but a veering wind
profile with height should support 35-40 kt of effective bulk shear
through the early evening. It is not entirely clear how much
convection will form along the front late this afternoon, but any
thunderstorm that does form will pose an isolated threat for large
hail and strong/damaging winds. In addition, ongoing convection
across eastern CO may also contain an isolated severe risk as it
moves into western KS over the next several hours. Radar and
observational trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance
through 23Z.

..Gleason/Guyer.. 06/22/2017

...Please see for graphic product...


LAT...LON   38810193 38740112 38780042 39209985 40299924 40879862
            41019821 40889755 40199742 39339762 38659842 37639985
            37130082 37140193 37970196 38810193 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.