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000
ACUS11 KWNS 031106
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031105
NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-031700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0168
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0505 AM CST MON MAR 03 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WV...VA...MD...DE...SRN NJ

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 031105Z - 031700Z

SUMMARY...AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW AND SLEET WILL DEVELOP EWD OUT OF KY
AND WV INTO VA...MD...DE AND SRN NJ LATER THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL
ALSO CHANGE BRIEFLY TO FREEZING RAIN THEN SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS
CNTRL VA.

DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY MIXED-PRECIPITATION
STRETCHED FROM ERN KY EWD INTO SRN NJ AT 11Z WITH HRLY LIQUID
EQUIVALENT OF 0.05 TO 0.10 INCHES COMMON. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WERE NOTED ACROSS ERN KY APPROACHING 0.20 IN/HR.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE FREEZING LINE IS MOVING SWD WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING 2-4 DEGREES F/HR. THE RELATIVELY STEEP FRONTAL
SLOPE WILL FAVOR A QUICK CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW AS
THE FRONT CONTINUES S. AS THIS OCCURS...A ZONE OF FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WILL PERSIST AS THE FRONTAL INVERSION DEEPENS AND
WARM-CONVEYOR MOISTURE IS LIFTED NEWD.

..JEWELL.. 03/03/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...RLX...

LAT...LON   38507496 38077511 37367680 37087780 36758022 36768117
            37138158 37358166 37638158 38727973 39507770 39847549
            40167403 39887399 39277429 38937465 38507496