Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 291551
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291551
LAZ000-TXZ000-291715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1838
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0951 AM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EAST TEXAS AND INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 291551Z - 291715Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ELEVATED STORMS ONGOING ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF EAST TX
MAY POSE LOCAL HAIL RISK.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR
MORE SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION TO EVOLVE WITH TIME...AS A WARM/MOIST
GULF AIRMASS SPREADS STEADILY NORTHWARD.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS
ONGOING IN THE NACOGDOCHES/ANGELINA COUNTY VICINITY OF EAST TX...
WHICH HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST HOUR.  THE STORMS ARE BEING DRIVEN
BY LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT WHICH IS
CURRENTLY MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND AT THIS TIME
INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AND GENERALLY
SUB-SEVERE.

WITH THAT SAID...THE STEADY INLAND ADVANCE OF THE GULF AIRMASS --
FEATURING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S -- WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING.  GIVEN STRONG MID-LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION PROVIDING FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR ROTATING STORMS...ANY SUSTAINED
SURFACE-BASED STORM EVOLVING IN THIS BACKGROUND KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT WOULD POSE A CONCERN FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE RISK.
WHILE THIS SCENARIO APPEARS RELATIVELY UNLIKELY ATTM AS MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS RISE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY (SUGGESTING LITTLE SUPPORT FOR
STORM INITIATION AWAY FROM THE ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY)...SOME HI-RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL RUNS DO
MAINTAIN STORMS NEAR/NORTH OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY
CONVECTIVE AND ENVIRONMENTAL EVOLUTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN LA
VICINITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

..GOSS/THOMPSON.. 11/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON   31219498 31969424 32619303 32839205 32719130 31979122
            31629182 31359311 31259426 31219498




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