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ACUS11 KWNS 240059
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240058
MTZ000-IDZ000-WAZ000-240230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1450
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NE WA...WRN MT...NRN ID

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 435...

VALID 240058Z - 240230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 435
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS ACROSS THE NERN PART OF WW 345. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1007-MB LOW JUST TO THE
WEST OF MISSOULA MT WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING NWWD ACROSS NW MT
INTO FAR NE WA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. SFC
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S F WITH
MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATING MLCAPE IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE. IN
ADDITION...THE WSR-88D VWP AT MISSOULA MT SHOWS 50 KT OF 0-6 KM
SHEAR WITH SUBSTANTIAL SPEED SHEAR IN THE 1 TO 4 KM LAYER. THIS
ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EARLY THIS EVENING.
UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS ALONG WITH THE TEMP-DEWPOINT
SPREADS OF 40 DEGREES F WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFT
ACCELERATION AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 07/24/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MSO...OTX...

LAT...LON   46331314 46021356 45851408 46021457 46751518 47601588
            48111697 48111852 48691866 48931833 48941666 48771417
            48241344 47381313 46331314

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