Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 041843
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041843
NDZ000-MTZ000-042045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1296
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0143 PM CDT SAT JUL 04 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN MT...WRN/CENTRAL ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 041843Z - 042045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND A WATCH IS LIKELY
PRIOR TO 20Z.

DISCUSSION...MESOANALYSIS AT 18Z SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MT...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT
OVER FAR NORTHEAST MT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE LOW INTO
WESTERN SD. STRONG HEATING AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S HAVE
RESULTED IN MODERATE/STRONG SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...AND A
VEERING WIND PROFILE HAS RESULTED IN 30-35 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

VISIBLE SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOW TOWERING CU AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT...AND WITH LITTLE
REMAINING CINH THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT AND
SURFACE TROUGH. INITIAL STORM MODE SHOULD BE SUPERCELLULAR GIVEN THE
LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREATS. LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS/HIGH LCLS WILL
TEND TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. WITH
TIME...STORMS SHOULD MERGE INTO CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS
BECOMING THE MAIN THREAT.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND A WATCH IS LIKELY
PRIOR TO 20Z.

..BUNTING/MEAD.. 07/04/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...GGW...

LAT...LON   46940356 47030574 47250628 47680653 48220653 49000525
            49000272 48960074 48690021 47439959 46629983 46539999
            46940356



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