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Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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000 ACUS11 KWNS 180006 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180006 TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-180100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1115 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0706 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...PORTIONS TX/OK PANHANDLES...TX S PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 323... VALID 180006Z - 180100Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 323 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...GREATEST DMGG WIND AND LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER ERN NM AND THE TX S PLAINS THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. SVR THREAT CURRENTLY APPEARS MORE ISOLATED ACROSS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE...BUT SHOULD INCREASE AS TSTMS ENCOUNTER A PROGRESSIVELY MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. DISCUSSION...GREATEST COVERAGE OF STRONG-SVR TSTMS IS FOCUSED OVER ERN NM WITH A LOOSELY ORGANIZED BROKEN LINE EVOLVING OUT OF INITIAL UPSLOPE REGIME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED ALONG A BOUNDARY POSITIONED FROM APPROXIMATELY 30 S CVS TO 15 SE LBB AS OF 00Z. CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS ERN NM INTO W TX IS ENCOUNTERING A PROGRESSIVELY MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /60S DEW POINTS/ AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ORGANIZE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS...AND AN ACCOMPANYING THREAT FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL PERSISTING ACROSS THE TX S PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST SVR THREAT COULD REMAIN MORE ISOLATED ACROSS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...WITH A MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT /AS NOTED IN 00Z AMA SOUNDING/...THREAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THIS AREA...ESPECIALLY IF LINE CONTINUES TO EXPAND/FILL NWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. ..ROGERS.. 06/18/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 32639907 31769913 31039997 30830123 30570215 30330371 31010395 32950395 35100446 36090435 36450385 36620340 36730198 36570144 33340028 32639907
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