Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 012346
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012346
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-020115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1660
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS AND ADJACENT NRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 486...

VALID 012346Z - 020115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 486
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR AT LEAST SOME
INCREASE IN TORNADIC POTENTIAL...GENERALLY DURING THE 00-02Z TIME
FRAME...NEAR/NORTH OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER
AREA.

DISCUSSION...DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOW WELL UNDERWAY ALONG A
SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM PRIOR CONVECTION.  THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS EAST OF A WEAK SURFACE
LOW NEAR MEDICINE LODGE KS...NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER...INTO THE JOPLIN MO AREA.  IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATELY
LARGE MIXED LAYER CAPE BENEATH 40 KT WESTERLY FLOW AROUND 500
MB...THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE TO THE EVOLUTION OF INTENSIFYING
SUPERCELLS...BEFORE LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION CONTRIBUTES TO UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH LATER THIS
EVENING.

ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS APPEAR RATHER MODEST IN STRENGTH...
THEY SHOULD BEGIN TO ENLARGE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE 00-02Z
TIME FRAME...AS THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN
ATOP THE DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER.  AS THIS OCCURS...AT LEAST A
SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR TORNADIC
DEVELOPMENT IN THE DISCRETE STORMS PROPAGATING ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY.

..KERR.. 09/01/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   37759718 37699580 37559469 36919445 36789593 36869754
            37309828 37649782 37759718




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