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ACUS11 KWNS 220025
SPC MCD 220025

Mesoscale Discussion 0034
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0625 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

Areas affected...Northeast Texas...southeast Oklahoma...western

Concerning...Tornado Watch 1...

Valid 220025Z - 220230Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 1 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat of a tornado or two persists from northeast
Texas into western Arkansas, and may increase over the next few
hours. A few damaging wind gusts are also possible this evening.

DISCUSSION...An initial zone of storms persist within a zone of
deeper low-level moisture convergence, near the wrn edge of the
low-level jet. Weak but sufficient instability remains in place for
strong to severe storms, given the presence of low 60s dewpoints and
continued cooling aloft. The 00Z FWD sounding shows a rather deep
boundary layer, but also resides farther west near a cold front
aloft with veered winds at 850 mb. In addition to cooling aloft,
rapid drying is also occurring.

Shear profiles farther east near the low-level jet axis remain
favorable for supercells, and several small storms have shown at
least weak mesocyclones. The strongest cell is currently over
Navarro county TX with a well defined mesocyclone. The southern end
of this line also has access to slightly better moisture, and a
tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

With time, convergence will increase along the approaching front,
and this may boost overall storm activity, perhaps consolidating it
into more of a line. Shear will remain favorable as this line
advances eastward, with a wind and QLCS tornado threat.

..Jewell.. 01/22/2018

...Please see for graphic product...


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