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725
ACUS11 KWNS 220025
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220025
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-220230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0034
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0625 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

Areas affected...Northeast Texas...southeast Oklahoma...western
Arkansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 1...

Valid 220025Z - 220230Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 1 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat of a tornado or two persists from northeast
Texas into western Arkansas, and may increase over the next few
hours. A few damaging wind gusts are also possible this evening.

DISCUSSION...An initial zone of storms persist within a zone of
deeper low-level moisture convergence, near the wrn edge of the
low-level jet. Weak but sufficient instability remains in place for
strong to severe storms, given the presence of low 60s dewpoints and
continued cooling aloft. The 00Z FWD sounding shows a rather deep
boundary layer, but also resides farther west near a cold front
aloft with veered winds at 850 mb. In addition to cooling aloft,
rapid drying is also occurring.

Shear profiles farther east near the low-level jet axis remain
favorable for supercells, and several small storms have shown at
least weak mesocyclones. The strongest cell is currently over
Navarro county TX with a well defined mesocyclone. The southern end
of this line also has access to slightly better moisture, and a
tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

With time, convergence will increase along the approaching front,
and this may boost overall storm activity, perhaps consolidating it
into more of a line. Shear will remain favorable as this line
advances eastward, with a wind and QLCS tornado threat.

..Jewell.. 01/22/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   35669426 35649368 35529317 35319288 35019279 34429290
            32869353 32209382 31789448 31609501 31629538 31599625
            31719666 31929667 32859629 33949571 34819535 35439499
            35599457 35669426




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