Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
ACUS11 KWNS 202333
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202333
OKZ000-TXZ000-210130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0374
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0633 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO PARTS OF SWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 202333Z - 210130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STILL APPEARS
POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST
TEXAS...ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WIND
AND HAIL.  ALTHOUGH THE THREAT CURRENTLY APPEARS LOW ENOUGH THAT A
WATCH PROBABLY IS NOT NEEDED...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...THE MOST PROMINENT CURRENT CONVECTION IS THE ISOLATED
STORM EAST OF CHILDRESS...WHICH HAS EXHIBITED SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS AS IT SLOWLY PROPAGATES EASTWARD.  ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY
LAYER INSTABILITY BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER WITH EASTWARD EXTENT
ALONG THE RED RIVER...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF PRIOR
CONVECTION...LOCALLY BACKED /SOUTHEASTERLY/ SURFACE FLOW IS
ENHANCING SHEAR BENEATH MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW.  AND THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY SEVERE WIND
GUSTS...PERHAPS ANOTHER BRIEF TORNADO...COULD PERSIST ANOTHER HOUR
OR TWO TO THE WEST OF THE LAWTON/WICHITA FALLS AREA.

OTHERWISE...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER LOBE OF VORTICITY...
PIVOTING AROUND THE BROAD CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION MIGRATING
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE REGION...COULD STILL CONTRIBUTE TO INTENSIFYING
STORM DEVELOPMENT FARTHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.  THE LEADING
EDGE OF A NARROW TONGUE OF RICHER MOISTURE RETURN IS CONTRIBUTING TO
MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
PLAINVIEW AND LUBBOCK.  ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROBABLY WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY MODEST IN STRENGTH...THE EVOLUTION OF A SMALL
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THROUGH
THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME...ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS WHICH COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS...IN ADDITION TO THE RISK
FOR SEVERE HAIL.

..KERR/MEAD.. 04/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   33569973 33530002 33300103 33790220 34500162 35400118
            34899986 34689913 34539871 34189868 33829898 33569973




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.