Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 230820
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230819
KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-231015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1438
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0319 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN SD/WRN NEB/NERN CO/NWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 230819Z - 231015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ELEVATED STORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA...WHERE ISOLATED SEVERE RISK -- MAINLY IN THE FORM OF HAIL --
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITH A COUPLE OF THE
STRONGEST CELLS.  WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE OF
THE THREAT.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A SMALL/PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MOVING SEWD ACROSS SWRN SD...WHILE ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP FARTHER SWD/SEWD ACROSS WRN NEB/NERN
CO.  THE CONVECTION REMAINS ELEVATED ABOVE A STABLE SURFACE LAYER --
AND IS BEING DRIVEN BY LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
SELY LOW-LEVEL JET IMPINGING UPON THIS REGION.

WITH MODERATE /AROUND 30 KT/ MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP THE REGION ON THE
NERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE PROVIDING AMPLE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS...A FEW STRONGER CELLS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS -- AIDED BY AMPLE /1000 TO 1500 J/KG/ ELEVATED CAPE.
THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR HAIL UP TO
GOLF-BALL SIZE...BUT OVERALL RISK SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED -- THUS
LIKELY PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR WW ISSUANCE.

..GOSS/CORFIDI.. 07/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   44090281 43530176 42590032 40829917 39609855 39150025
            39290205 39780311 41510398 43490389 44090281



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