Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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242
ACUS11 KWNS 301814
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301814
NDZ000-301915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0788
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0114 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 301814Z - 301915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SOME ISOLATED HAIL IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT
LIMITED SPATIAL EXTENT OF THE SVR THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE
NEED FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN TSTM
ACTIVITY ALONG A EAST-WEST ORIENTED WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM A WEAK
TRIPLE POINT JUST E OF HZE. NEITHER THE THERMODYNAMIC NOR KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT ARE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY /MLCAPE
APPROACHING 1000 J PER KG ESTIMATED BY RECENT MESOANALYIS/ AND
VERTICAL SHEAR /0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KT BASED ON BIS VAD DATA/
EXIST FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED HAIL. SPATIAL
LIMITED COVERAGE OF SVR EVENTS SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW. A
GREATER SVR THREAT MAY MANIFEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON FARTHER S AND
SW.

..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 05/30/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   47250147 47880114 48259827 47439850 47250147




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