Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
ACUS11 KWNS 291738
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291737
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-291900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0496
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL MS...FAR NE LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 291737Z - 291900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LINE OF STRONG/OCCASIONALLY SEVERE TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST AS IT CONTINUES EWD/NEWD INTO NRN/CNTRL MS AND FAR NE LA. WW
ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE IF RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST INCREASING
STORM STRENGTH.

DISCUSSION...AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF A LINE OF TSTMS EXTENDING FROM
JUST W OF NQA SWWD TO MLU -- MOVING ROUGHLY NNEWD AT 35 KT -- IS
GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING AS A RESULT OF MODEST DIURNAL HEATING.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES MLCAPE FROM 1000-2000 J PER KG AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE OF SOME
UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND ISOLATED SVR THREAT. HOWEVER...SOME
DISSOCIATION EXISTS BETWEEN THE BETTER SHEAR /NEAR AND N OF NQA/ AND
THE BEST INSTABILITY /ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN MS/. THIS DISSOCIATION
COUPLED WITH A PRIMARILY LINEAR MODE IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT UPDRAFT
STRENGTH AND/OR ORGANIZATION AS THE LINE CONTINUES EWD/NEWD. EVEN
SO...EPISODIC UPDRAFT STRENGTHENING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
ISOLATED/SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL AND TRENDS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL WW.

..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 04/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   33729071 34459023 34908969 34898885 34568851 33878856
            32698890 31918960 31779017 32239175 33729071



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.