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000
ACUS11 KWNS 251938
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251938
INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-252145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1735
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WI/NRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 251938Z - 252145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND CORRESPONDING
UPTICK IN SEVERE RISK IS ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF SRN WI AND NRN IL.
WW NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS SHOW
CONVECTION INCREASING ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION INDICATED JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER S CENTRAL WI ATTM.  WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
HAVING HEATED INTO THE 80S ABOVE MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...MIXED-LAYER CAPE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG IS INDICATED.  THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL A CONVECTIVE INCREASE...AS THE FRONT FOCUSES
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT /OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING MID-LEVEL
TROUGH/.

LATEST VWPS SHOW MODERATE/WEEKLY VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT --
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED/STRONGER STORMS AND OR/BANDS
OF CONVECTION.  WHILE OVERALL SEVERE RISK SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED
ISOLATED DUE TO AN ONLY MODESTLY SUPPORTIVE BACKGROUND
ENVIRONMENT...HAIL APPROACHING 1" IN DIAMETER OR A LOCALIZED
DAMAGING GUST WILL BE POSSIBLE...BEFORE STORMS DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET.

..GOSS/HART.. 09/25/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...

LAT...LON   44448910 44718839 43938762 42288786 41128722 40608835
            40578989 41089028 42818938 44448910