Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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614
ACUS11 KWNS 222256
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222256
UTZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-230100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1731
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0556 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NW AZ...SRN UT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 222256Z - 230100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NW AZ AND SW UT FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL NOT
LIKELY PERSIST AND WW ISSUANCE IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD
ACROSS SRN NV WITH A 1000 MB LOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER FAR SE NV.
AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS NWWD ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM
INTO NW AZ WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S F. AS A RESULT...WEAK INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED IN NW AZ AND
SWRN UT EARLY THIS EVENING WHERE A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING. THE LATEST HRRR RUN SUGGESTS THIS LINE
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ENEWD ACROSS NW AZ AND SCNTRL UT OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. IN SPITE OF THE WEAK INSTABILITY...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS
SHOW WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC NEAR 40 KT INCREASING TO ABOUT 80 KT
IN THE MID-LEVELS. THE STRONG WIND FIELD WILL AID DOWNDRAFT
ACCELERATION MAKING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH
MULTICELLS THAT PERSIST. HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITHIN THE MORE INTENSE
CORES.

..BROYLES/HART.. 09/22/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...VEF...

LAT...LON   36921389 36301426 36051400 36261286 37061172 37961132
            38521177 38631251 38541315 38081358 37571365 36921389




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