Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 012041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012041
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-012245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0857
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 PM CDT MON JUN 01 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT THROUGH WRN SD...WRN ND AND NERN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 012041Z - 012245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING ERN MT THROUGH THE WRN DAKOTAS INTO NERN
WY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.

DISCUSSION...LATE THIS AFTERNOON THE WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE OVER THE NRN PLAINS WHERE AXIS OF 1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE
IS INDICATED BY LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS
CUMULUS FORMING ALONG A COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER NERN MT AS WELL AS
ALONG A LEE TROUGH ACROSS WRN ND AS WELL AS THE BLACK HILLS OF SD.
DESPITE WEAK FORCING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
RIDGING...ONLY A MODEST CAP IS IN PLACE THAT HAS BEEN FURTHER
WEAKENED BY STRONG SFC HEATING AND MIXING AS EVIDENCED ON THE
GLASGOW SPECIAL 19Z RAOB. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD INITIATE BY 22Z AND SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR.
VERTICAL SHEAR FROM 25-35 KT WILL SUPPORT MULTICELLS AND POSSIBLY
SOME MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS INTO THE EARLY-MIDDLE EVENING...POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO
CLUSTERS SUPPORTED BY A STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ.

..DIAL/MEAD.. 06/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON   43360456 47170447 48840443 48210209 43890291 43360456



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