972
ACUS11 KWNS 172244
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172244
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-180015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1654
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0544 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Areas affected...east New Mexico...southeast Colorado...and the
Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 486...

Valid 172244Z - 180015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 486
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered storms capable of producing
downburst winds and large hail will persist through at least 01Z
over the southern High Plains. However, a gradual weakening trend
should commence with onset of nocturnal cooling.

DISCUSSION...Storms continue spreading off the higher terrain of CO
and NM and are also developing along southwestern extension of a
front as well as in association with numerous outflow boundary
interactions over the TX panhandle. Latest objective analysis shows
the atmosphere to be moderately unstable in this region with 1500
J/kg MLCAPE and 7-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates. Moreover, easterly
low-level winds north of the front beneath modest southwesterly
winds aloft is resulting in sufficient (35-40 kt) effective bulk
shear for a few storms to develop mid-level updraft rotation. The
stronger storms will continue to pose a severe risk next couple
hours followed by an overall weakening trend as the boundary layer
begins to stabilize.

..Dial.. 09/17/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   38570361 38000247 35810095 34200042 33330115 32480305
            32770428 35480487 37970485 38570361