


Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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872 ACUS11 KWNS 022042 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022042 MTZ000-WYZ000-022215- Mesoscale Discussion 1541 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Areas affected...southern/central MT Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 022042Z - 022215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Erratic and isolated severe gusts will remain possible across a broad portion of southern to central Montana over the next few hours. Whether sufficient coverage/organization potential will exist for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is uncertain. DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have been gradually increasing across the higher terrain of southwest/south-central MT. Despite meager buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear, one initial cell produced a measured severe gust of 64 kts at KDLN. This activity is expected to spread northward, mainly across the central portion of MT, into early evening where the downstream airmass is slightly more unstable. With 40-50 F surface temperature-dew point spreads, sporadic severe gusts are the expected hazard. Coverage of both convection and organizational potential is uncertain. Short-term guidance suggest severe gust potential may remain erratic with relatively disorganized convection. It is possible that a loosely organized cluster might evolve to the north-northeast at some point during the early evening, which would raise the potential of downstream watch issuance. ..Grams/Mosier.. 07/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...MSO... LAT...LON 48390825 47450806 45610827 45120967 44811229 45111259 46041309 46981319 47801197 48501044 48390825 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH