Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 050051
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050051
TXZ000-050645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0118
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 PM CST WED MAR 04 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 050051Z - 050645Z

SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF CNTRL TX THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION RATES SHOULD REACH A
TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND BANDS WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ON THE TX
COASTAL PLAINS WITH A SUBFREEZING AIRMASS SETTLING IN OVER THE SRN
PLAINS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE TOP OF THIS COLD AIRMASS WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FROM THE WEST.
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF SAN ANGELO.
SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP THIS ACTIVITY ENEWD INTO NCNTRL
TX AND THE TX HILL COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DUE TO A WARM
LAYER ABOVE 850 MB EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN ALTHOUGH SLEET MAY ALSO
OCCUR. PRECIPITATION RATES OF A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND BANDS.  LOCALLY HIGHER RATES MAY
OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

..BROYLES.. 03/05/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   32330030 32849864 32929790 32709748 32299752 31849791
            31249915 31030070 31020180 31700185 32090096 32330030



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