000
ACUS11 KWNS 220208
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220208
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-220345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1424
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0908 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ND...MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 427...

VALID 220208Z - 220345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 427
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE BOWING COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS SPREADING EAST INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF MN. THE
BULK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 427...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
OF SOUTHERN AREAS OF NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST-CENTRAL
MN...WILL LIKELY BE CANCELED BY 0300 UTC/10 PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...A MATURE FORWARD-PROPAGATING SEVERE MCS HAS MOVED
ACROSS AN INSTABILITY CORRIDOR WHERE CAPE VALUES WERE NEAR 5000 J/KG
EARLIER THIS EVENING. THIS INSTABILITY....IN CONCERT WITH
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW TO ABOUT 50KT...HAS AIDED SYSTEM
ORGANIZATION AND INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE
APEX OF THE BOW NOW MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST INTO WEST-CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN MN AT ABOUT 50KT. WHILE THE LARGER COMPLEX HAS LIKELY
PEAKED IN INTENSITY...THE EXTENSIVE COLD POOL AND ORGANIZATIONAL
STRUCTURE OF THE COMPLEX WILL MORE THAN LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO A
CONTINUING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. FLANKING LINE DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO
EVIDENT ON THE TRAILING OUTFLOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST SD AT A
SLOWER PACE OF ABOUT 30KT. LIFT ALONG THIS OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ACT ON SOME OF THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR AVAILABLE WITH A SLIGHT
TENDENCY FOR UPDRAFTS TO CONTINUE TO FORM/PERSIST AND POSE A THREAT
FOR DOWNBURST WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST SD AND INTO WEST-CENTRAL MN.

..CARBIN/THOMPSON.. 07/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   48989949 48999515 48549541 48529559 47159558 47109621
            46599619 45409623 45389606 45189607 45279719 45539715
            45589794 45239796 45209874 45599873 45549966 45969973
            47309997 47880005 47839976 48349979 48989951 48989949