Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
ACUS11 KWNS 152321
SPC MCD 152320
Mesoscale Discussion 0055
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0520 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017
Areas affected...Central/North Central Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 152320Z - 160115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Severe threat is gradually increasing across central/north
central Texas. Locally damaging winds and marginally severe hail,
and perhaps a tornado or two are the primary threats. Watch may be
required to address this potential.
DISCUSSION...Over the last hour or so convection has gradually
increased in areal coverage/intensity along the I-35 corridor from
central TX, northward to near the Red River. Much of this activity
is cellular in nature with several deeper updrafts having the
characteristics of supercells. One storm has a longer history of
rotation as it lifts north across Williamson/Bell/Coryell counties.
Weak supercells are now evolving northwest of Waco over
Hamilton/Bosque counties. Surface-based buoyancy is still quite
weak across this region but dew points are gradually increasing and
near-sfc based convection could yield a small but increasing threat
for isolated tornadoes. Even so, the primary risk should be locally
damaging winds and marginally severe hail. This region is being
considered for a watch.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 29989851 32289824 33639761 33399618 31499642 29889719