Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 241008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241007
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-241130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1950
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0407 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL PNHDL INTO SRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 241007Z - 241130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LOW-PROBABILITY RISK FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
EXIST WITH TSTMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...A NE-SW-ORIENTED BAND
OF TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED INLAND ACROSS THE CNTRL FL PNHDL WITH THE
MOST INTENSE STORM LOCATED OVER WRN JACKSON COUNTY FL AS OF 1005Z.
ASIDE FROM WEAKLY CONFLUENT FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER...ITS UNCLEAR
AS TO WHETHER OTHER FORCING MECHANISMS ARE PROMOTING THIS STORM
DEVELOPMENT. TRENDS IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DOWNSTREAM FROM THESE
STORMS FROM THE ERN FL PNHDL INTO SRN GA INDICATE A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN DEWPOINTS WHICH IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO AT LEAST A MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. MORE ROBUST DESTABILIZATION AND ASSOCIATED
POTENTIAL FOR MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFT GROWTH IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED
BY THE QUITE POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED BY 00Z RAOBS AND
PREDICTED BY NAM/RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

NEAR-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THESE STORMS COULD PERSIST
THROUGH DAYBREAK...GRADUALLY DEVELOPING NEWD WITH TIME INTO PORTIONS
OF SRN GA. WHILE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OWING TO THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF
HIGH-MOMENTUM FLOW ALOFT WITHIN CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS.

..MEAD.. 11/24/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   30218579 30688551 31008531 31498481 32108394 32118334
            31958299 31718300 31368305 30668361 30288437 30038476
            29948498 30008535 30218579



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