Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 062318
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062318
IAZ000-070115-
Mesoscale Discussion 0661
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0618 PM CDT Mon May 06 2024
Areas affected...Portions of western/central Iowa
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 062318Z - 070115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Storms will move east-northeast out of Nebraska into
western and eventually parts of central Iowa. Damaging winds and
QLCS tornadoes will be possible.
DISCUSSION...Aided my the mid-level shortwave trough, a line of
convection continues to the east-northeast in eastern Nebraska. This
will likely continue into parts of western into central Iowa this
evening. Dewpoints have risen into the low 60s F in the mid-Missouri
Valley. Though overall destabilization has not been robust due to
cloud cover, the upper-level forcing and continued moisture
advection should promote some severe threat. Regional VAD profiles
from KFSD/KOAX/KDMX show ample low-level shear in place. This shear
should remain and increase as the low-level jet intensifies and
moves east. Damaging winds and QLCS tornadoes will be possible. A
tornado watch will likely be needed this evening. The primary
uncertainty will be how far north/northwest the severe threat will
be.
..Wendt/Guyer.. 05/06/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...
LAT...LON 40689462 41629511 42709641 42939647 43299620 43299572
42619440 40629387 40689462