637
ACUS11 KWNS 201745
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201744
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-202015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1362
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Areas affected...Portions of GA...eastern AL...north FL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 201744Z - 202015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms this afternoon will have the potential to
produce strong wind gusts. A few isolated damaging wind gusts cannot
be ruled out, though Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms developing within a moderately to
strongly buoyant and weakly capped air mass will spread generally
southward and southwestward today, along the western fringes of a
mid-level cold pool/trough centered off the Southeast Coast. This
activity will develop along a weak baroclinic zone shifting
southward from the TN Valley, sea-breeze boundaries, and amid
diurnally deepening boundary-layer circulations. While mid-level
flow is modest in strength, the presence of 10-20 kt of northerlies
in the 2-4-km layer per area VAD wind profiles suggests that a few
loosely organized multicell clusters could evolve. Furthermore, with
steepening low-level lapse rates owing to widespread insolation,
DCAPE may approach 1500 J/kg in some locations -- suggesting
enhanced downward convective mass fluxes. Strong wind gusts may
accompany this activity, and a few isolated damaging wind gusts may
occur. Poor mid-level lapse rates, the lack of stronger deep shear,
and weak deep ascent will all limit the severe risk.

..Cohen/Coniglio/Hart.. 07/20/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...

LAT...LON   31718609 32688593 33268485 33168343 32298157 30708141
            29358154 28818211 29108285 29698423 29728536 31718609