Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 210556
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210555
MIZ000-INZ000-210730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1752
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 210555Z - 210730Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED TREE DAMAGE WITH
QLCS APPROACHING THE ERN SHORE OF LK MI.

DISCUSSION...MINOR INTENSIFICATION AND SOLIDIFICATION OF
HIGH-REFLECTIVITY CORES HAVE RECENTLY OCCURRED WITH THE LONG-LIVED
QLCS CROSSING SRN LK MI TO THE CHICAGOLAND AREA. 63-65 DEG F SURFACE
DEW POINTS PERSIST DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SRN LOWER MI...WITH MODIFIED
00Z GRB/APX RAOBS SUPPORTIVE OF MEAGER SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY
/LARGELY AOB 500 J/KG/ AMIDST MODEST INHIBITION. WITH VERY STRONG
SPEED SHEAR SAMPLED IN GRR VWP DATA /0-6 KM VALUES NEAR 70 KT/ AND
CURRENT LINEAR MOTION AROUND 40 KT...IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT 35-45
KT WIND GUSTS SHOULD ACCOMPANY EMBEDDED BULGING SEGMENTS WITHIN THE
LINE AS IT REACHES THE WRN LOWER MI LAKE SHORE.

..GRAMS/EDWARDS.. 09/21/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...

LAT...LON   43878675 44388664 44618644 44638620 44608594 44408545
            43808513 42938520 41808596 41608667 41778727 42568680
            43338660 43878675



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