Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 022029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022028
MIZ000-WIZ000-022200-
Mesoscale Discussion 1540
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025
Areas affected...portions of northeast Wisconsin and the UP/LP of
Michigan
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 022028Z - 022200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated severe winds gusts/hail possible this
afternoon/evening.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite/radar shows a small cluster of cells
over portions of northeast Wisconsin, and a few isolated cells over
the LP of Michigan, traversing southeast. These storms initiated
during the heating of the day amid a weakly capped environment.
Persistent downstream heating, where dew point temperatures are in
the low 60s F, is yielding MLCAPE values near 1000 J/kg and low
level lapse rates near 9 C/km. The weak instability combined with
marginal deep-layer shear (approaching 25-35 kt) should limit storm
organization. That said, some potential exists for a localized
damaging wind gust or severe hail with the strongest cells
throughout the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening.
..Karstens/Mosier.. 07/02/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...MKX...ARX...
LAT...LON 45918727 45928808 45558936 45098997 44308987 43708952
43438906 43128768 42898593 42768480 42698390 42968291
43888303 44338350 45078356 45378498 45878694 45838684
45918727
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN