000
ACUS11 KWNS 252144
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252143
FLZ000-GAZ000-252345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0099
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 252143Z - 252345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SURFACE-BASED TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AMIDST WIND FIELDS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. AS
SUCH...A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...AIRMASS S OF THE FL PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO MODIFY AS A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW -- CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 70 MI SSE OF MOB
-- APPROACHES. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ENEWD INTO THE WRN
FL PANHANDLE WITH THE WARM SECTOR SUBSEQUENTLY MOVING INTO THE CNTRL
AND ERN FL PANHANDLE. THIS WARM SECTOR IS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION AROUND 00Z. MATURING CYCLONE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY VERTICALLY-STACKED...ENHANCING MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 0-1 KM SRH VALUES AROUND 500 M2/S2 AND 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR TOPPING 80 KTS. THIS KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO.

MAIN LIMITING FACTOR IS THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING JUST HOW FAR
INLAND THE WARM SECTOR MAKES IT BEFORE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TROUGH.
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

..MOSIER/HART/GRAMS.. 02/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

LAT...LON   30268603 30458599 30718540 30858505 30888465 30788435
            30668426 30198422 29868430 29738469 29758527 29868540
            30208572 30268603