Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 032204
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032204
ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-040000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1292
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0504 PM CDT FRI JUL 03 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...TX AND OK PANHANDLES THROUGH CNTRL OK AND NWRN ARK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 032204Z - 040000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS AND
SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH 02Z. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A SFC FRONT FROM NWRN ARK
THROUGH CNTRL OK AND NWWD INTO THE OK PANHANDLE. WHILE MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO 90 F WHICH ALONG WITH NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS
ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE FROM 2000-2500 J/KG. STORMS ARE EMBEDDED
WITHIN MODEST NWLY FLOW ALOFT...AND THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED WET DOWNBURST WINDS WITHIN THE HIGHER
REFLECTIVITY CORES. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER 01Z WITH
ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.

..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 07/03/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...AMA...

LAT...LON   36430194 35699892 35459710 35719552 36079469 36379404
            35959366 35089431 34549558 34349729 34639891 35900168
            36430194




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