000
ACUS11 KWNS 222050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222049
MTZ000-IDZ000-222215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1432
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AND CNTRL MT...E-CNTRL ID

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 222049Z - 222215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON...POSING AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND
GUSTS. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TOO MARGINAL
TO WARRANT A WW.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF SWRN MT AMIDST AMPLE DIURNAL HEATING. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS CURRENT ACTIVITY IS ISOLATED AND NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG...PROBABLY LIMITED BY THE PRESENCE OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY
/500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE/ AND WEAK DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT.
HOWEVER...40-50 KT MIDLEVEL W-SWLYS ALONG THE NRN PERIPHERY OF A
CNTRL ROCKIES ANTICYCLONE ARE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION...YIELDING
A MODERATELY TO STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT /EFFECTIVE VALUES OF
35-45 KT/ AND FAST STORM MOTIONS. STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR ISOLATED INSTANCES OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL WITH ANY PERSISTENT/MATURE TSTMS THAT CAN EVOLVE OUT OF ONGOING
ACTIVITY. AN EVENTUAL EVOLUTION TO A FEW SMALL CLUSTERS/LINES IS
ALSO POSSIBLE AS TSTMS MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF CNTRL MT...WHERE
A MORE DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN PLACE AMIDST SFC
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-80S TO NEAR 90 F...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A
LOCALLY ENHANCED WIND THREAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

..ROGERS/HART.. 07/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...PIH...MSO...

LAT...LON   45741445 47061287 47701112 47821014 47440833 46400823
            46010824 45550897 45361025 44861194 44591269 44351375
            44801412 45741445