000
ACUS11 KWNS 032242
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032241
SCZ000-GAZ000-040015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0169
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0441 PM CST MON MAR 03 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA...FAR SRN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 032241Z - 040015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF SERN
GA AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 01Z OVER A LIMITED SPATIAL AREA
NEAR THE SAVANNAH VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...22Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A CYCLONE OVER SRN SC WITH
A COLD FRONT DRAPED SWWD THROUGH SERN GA INTO THE ERN FL PANHANDLE.
SEMI-DISCRETE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS HAVE INCREASED IN
INTENSITY DURING THE PAST HOUR ALONG THE FRONT...WITH A COUPLE OF
TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES NOTED RECENTLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
TATTNALL TO BRYAN COUNTIES. WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF MIDDLE 70S SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 60...MODIFIED RAP
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPE HAS REACHED ABOUT 500 J/KG. DESPITE VEERED
SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 25 KT AND
MODERATE CURVATURE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO FAVOR TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF A BRIEF
TORNADO...LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 03/03/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...

LAT...LON   31018145 31358261 32168192 32858085 32937975 31018145