000
ACUS11 KWNS 260055
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260055
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-260700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0100
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN SC AND CNTRL NC

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 260055Z - 260700Z

SUMMARY...A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NRN SC SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL
SNOW AND SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO CNTRL NC THROUGH 07Z. SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1 IN/HR WILL BE LIKELY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...00Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
NRN GULF OF MEXICO...AND A WEAKENING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
ERN NC/VA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER TROUGHING ACROSS THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CONUS WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEWD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A BROAD
AREA OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC
LOW EXTENDS FROM MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH INTO NC/SC.

OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NRN SC AS OF 00Z INDICATE NEAR-FREEZING SFC
TEMPERATURES...AND RECENT NSSL MPING REPORTS INDICATE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS BEGINNING TO TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AS DYNAMIC COOLING OF THE
LOW/MID-LEVELS CONTINUES. AS THIS PRECIPITATION MOVES NEWD INTO
CNTRL NC WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...
COOLING AND MOISTENING OF THE DRY SFC-700 MB LAYER EVIDENT IN THE
00Z GSO SOUNDING WILL OCCUR. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TRANSITION FROM A
RAIN/SNOW MIX TO ALL SNOW ACROSS CNTRL NC THROUGH 07Z. STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WAA AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL SUPPORT HEAVY SNOW
WITH RATES OF 1 IN/HR LIKELY. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS FROM
NRN MS/AL/GA...AND SREF PROBABILITIES...LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL
RATES OF 2+ IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE.

..GLEASON.. 02/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   34608291 35018261 35688199 36338080 36547976 36557887
            36407773 35687874 35137999 34688101 34388193 34298271
            34608291