Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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680
ACUS11 KWNS 282231
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282231
OKZ000-TXZ000-290000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0357
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0531 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Areas affected...Parts of nwrn Texas and adjacent southwestern
Oklahoma

Concerning...Tornado Watch 95...

Valid 282231Z - 290000Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 95 continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for potentially damaging surface gusts appears
likely to increase in association with an evolving mesoscale
convective system by 7-9 pm CDT.  Tornado potential will probably
maximize in this time frame as well, mainly in the isolated discrete
supercells.

DISCUSSION...Vigorous convective development appears to be in the
process of consolidation/growing upscale between Childress and
Abilene, aided by forcing for ascent associated with modest
low/mid-level warm advection beneath difluent/divergent upper flow.
Additional discrete storm development continues to the south and
east of this activity, near and southwest of Abilene, in the
presence of a moist, weakly capped boundary layer that appears
characterized by CAPE up to 2000 J/kg.

Low-level hodographs still appear somewhat modest in size, but are
expected to substantively enlarge between now and 00-02Z, with
southerly 850 mb flow forecast to strengthen in excess of 50 kt.  As
this occurs, and the evolving convective system and nearby
supercells tend to develop north/northeastward, the risk for strong
surface gusts is expected to increase across parts of northwest
texas into southwestern Oklahoma.

Despite some weakness in the high-level flow/length of deep layer
hodographs, the environment still appears conducive to the risk for
tornadoes.  This probably will remain most prominent with the
discrete supercells, and the threat may maximize in the 00-02Z time
frame, within areas near/between Wichita Falls and Mineral Wells Tx.

..Kerr.. 03/28/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON   34879986 35019829 34369749 32669768 32449909 33069960
            33679959 34879986




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