Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 231937
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231937
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-232130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0386
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN KS AND OK/TX PANHANDLES TO WESTERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 231937Z - 232130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS
WESTERN KS AND OK/TX PANHANDLES TO WESTERN OK. LARGE HAIL IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE INITIAL/MOST PREVALENT SEVERE HAZARD. A WATCH
WILL BE NEEDED BY LATE AFTERNOON /LIKELY PRIOR TO 21Z/.

DISCUSSION...A SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AROUND 995 MB ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST CO
AS OF 19Z. SOUTH OF THIS CYCLONE...AND IN THE WAKE OF
EASTWARD-SPREADING MID-LEVEL CONVECTION/TSTMS...A NORTH-SOUTH
EXTENDING DRY LINE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SHARPEN/MIX SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING SOUTHWEST KS AND
THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
MODEST...BUT 50S/SOME LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO
BECOME INCREASINGLY PREVALENT TO THE EAST OF THE DRY LINE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.

ADDITIONAL MIXING /ESPECIALLY AS SURFACE TEMPS CLIMB THROUGH THE 80S
F/ AND INCREASING CONVERGENCE NEAR THE DRY LINE...ALONG WITH THE
INCREASING INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX
CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. AN ASSORTMENT OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
12Z WRF-NSSL...INDICATE THAT SUCH DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR BY AROUND
21Z-22Z WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS AND TX/OK PANHANDLES.

A SPECIAL 18Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM AMARILLO SAMPLED AN
INCREASINGLY MIXED/UNINHIBITED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH STEEPENING
LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AROUND 1700 J/KG MUCAPE. LIKELY TIED
TO THE UPSTREAM FOUR CORNERS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A
STRENGTHENING/SLIGHT BACKING OF WINDS BETWEEN 3-7 KM AGL WAS NOTED
SINCE THIS MORNING /12Z/.

AS VERTICAL SHEAR/FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE...THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED
HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
DOMINANT SCENARIO. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME TORNADO
THREAT WILL EXIST AS WELL...MAINLY INTO EARLY EVENING AS LCL/S LOWER
AND LOW-LEVEL SRH BEGINS TO INCREASE.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 04/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   34250156 35910140 38210105 38219945 37629913 36449893
            34939896 33569948 33500044 34250156



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