Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 292326
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292326
WIZ000-300130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1636
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0626 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 292326Z - 300130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY-SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY TO MID EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL WI.  GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
LIMITED COVERAGE OF THE STRONGER STORMS PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR A
WATCH.  THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY
MID-EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

DISCUSSION...AT 23Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A SW-NE CORRIDOR
OF STORMS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL WI TO NERN IA.  THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPED
WITHIN A DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE
ADDITIONAL MORE ISOLATED STORMS ARE FORMING INVOF A W-E ORIENTED
WARM FRONT MOVING NWD THROUGH CENTRAL TO NRN WI.  GIVEN THE MOVEMENT
OF THIS LATTER BOUNDARY...DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES INTO NRN
PORTIONS OF WI TO THE W/NW OF GRB.  A RATHER MOIST WARM SECTOR WITH
PW EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES AND ABOVE-NORMAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1000-2000 J PER KG/...
DESPITE THE LACK OF STRONGER LAPSE RATES.  THIS LATTER FACTOR IS
LIKELY LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE STRONGER STORMS INTO THIS
EVENING.

40-60 METER 500-MB HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED AS THE ERN NEB/WRN IA
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND EWD-MOVING NRN PLAINS TROUGH APPROACH THE UPPER
MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES REGION.  FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT
TO THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KT ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL
TO THE SW-NE BAND OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN PRIMARILY
QUASI-LINEAR STORM STRUCTURES WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING
THE PRIMARY THREAT.

..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 08/29/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   44379117 44849103 45898955 45808830 45088831 44318928
            43898989 43939053 44039095 44379117




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