Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 242016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242015
TXZ000-OKZ000-242145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0742
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0315 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WEST AND WEST-CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 242015Z - 242145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO SVR STORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG/AHEAD OF A DRYLINE FROM THE SERN TX PANHANDLE INTO THE WRN
EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED WHICH MAY
PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE SEPARATE AREAS
OF PERCOLATING CU ALONG A SHARPENING DRYLINE ACROSS WEST
TX...INCLUDING THE SRN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN SOUTH PLAINS...AND FARTHER
S FROM SNYDER TO SONORA. WHILE CINH IS LIKELY STILL PRESENT AND
FORCING FOR ASCENT IS WEAK IN BETWEEN A SWRN OK IMPULSE AND A MORE
POTENT UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER SRN AZ...CONVECTIVE INITIATION REMAINS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS VIA A GRADUALLY INCREASING DRYLINE
CIRCULATION/CONVERGENCE AND CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING.
DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...WITH
MLCAPE VALUES LIKELY EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG AMIDST LOW 60S DEWPOINTS.
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
AS A LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACK/STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THUS...A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR A COUPLE
SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. POSSIBLE
WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT IMMINENT...BUT WILL REMAIN DEPENDENT ON
SHORT-TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED.

..ROGERS/GOSS.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON   33210101 34560223 35230230 35490079 35080010 33289931
            31759909 30639970 30570046 30840063 32540060 33210101



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