Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 150928
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150927
NEZ000-SDZ000-151430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1978
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0327 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN TO CENTRAL NEB

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 150927Z - 151430Z

SUMMARY...A MIXTURE OF SLEET/SNOW OR JUST SLEET IS EXPECTED THROUGH
12Z WITHIN A NARROW CORRIDOR...GENERALLY 15-25 MILES EITHER SIDE OF
A LINE FROM 25 SW KEAR TO 15 ESE KYKN.  FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL WITH
RATES TO AROUND 0.05 INCHES PER 3-HR APPEARS TO BE GREATEST IN A
SMALLER AREA FROM ERN BOONE AND PLATTE COUNTIES TO CEDAR COUNTY.

DISCUSSION...RECENT TRENDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS HAVE INDICATED PREDOMINATELY SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW BEING
REPORTED WITHIN THIS RELATIVELY NARROW DISCUSSION AREA.  THESE
OBSERVATIONS CORRELATE FAIRLY WELL WITH AREA WSR-88D DUAL POL
IMAGERY SHOWING A MELTING ZONE WITHIN THIS SSW-NNE ORIENTED
CORRIDOR.  THIS TRANSITION ZONE OF MIXED-WINTRY PRECIPITATION ALSO
MARKS THE LINE BETWEEN SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST
AND TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S EWD ACROSS FAR ERN
NEB/WRN IA.

WHILE 03Z SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTED A PRE-DOMINATE P-TYPE OF FREEZING
RAIN IN THE DISCUSSION AREA...A SMALL SUB-SET AREA FROM MAINLY
PLATTE TO CEDAR COUNTIES NEB WILL HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING RAIN.  GIVEN THE TRACK OF A SURFACE LOW FROM CENTRAL KS TO
FAR NWRN MO INTO THIS MORNING...LOW-LEVEL WAA SHOULD MAINTAIN A
SUFFICIENT WARM NOSE FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF
NERN NEB.  MEANWHILE...TRENDS IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS BEING 1-2
DEGREES COLDER THAN MODELS AND LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM W-E
INTO THE MORNING SUGGESTS A TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE
REST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN 12-15Z.

..PETERS.. 12/15/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   42839719 42869727 42719702 42219697 41659734 41119837
            40399916 40459952 41299904 41959843 42349812 42899743
            42839719




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