Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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748
ACUS11 KWNS 122346
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122346
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-130215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0024
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0546 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

Areas affected...Eastern South Carolina...North Carolina...Southern
Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 122346Z - 130215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal wind-damage threat appears likely to develop
this evening from eastern South Carolina northward into southern
Virginia. The threat is not expected to be great enough to warrant
weather watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...At the surface, a 1000 mb low is located over the
western Virginia with a cold front extending southward into the
southern Appalachians and eastern Georgia. Ahead of the front, a
moist but weakly unstable airmass is in place with surface dewpoints
generally in the mid 60s F from near Charleston SC northward to the
Raleigh/Durham NC area. The WSR-88D VWP at Raleigh shows strong
deep-layer shear with 0-6 km shear around 65 kt. In addition,
low-level shear is enhanced with 0-1 km shear near 30 kt and 50 kt
of flow just above 1 km. This should be enough for a marginal
wind-damage threat as a line of convection gradually intensifies.
Instability will be the limiting factor due to MLCAPE values
generally below 300 J/kg. Even though the line may not be
accompanied by much lightning, a few strong wind gusts can be
expected along the leading edge.

..Broyles/Edwards.. 01/12/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...

LAT...LON   36728035 35338000 33937988 33537922 33817816 34437747
            36347768 37197865 37287976 36728035




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