Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 240423
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240422
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-240515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1991
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1022 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWEST FL AND
SOUTHWEST GA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 561...

VALID 240422Z - 240515Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 561 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED PRIOR TO 05Z FOR
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWEST FL AND SOUTHWEST
GA.  A LINE OF STORMS WILL TRACK EWD OVERNIGHT THROUGH THIS
REGION...PRODUCING A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO
THREAT AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES.

DISCUSSION...AT 04Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A LINE OF STORMS
EXTENDING FROM JUST EAST OF KATL SWWD THROUGH FAR SERN AL TO THE WRN
FL PANHANDLE.  LIGHTNING PRODUCTION HAS INCREASED ALONG THE PORTION
OF THIS LINE IN SERN AL WHERE IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED COOLING
CLOUD TOPS.  DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE NERN
GULF INTO THE SERN STATES AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH 12Z...WITH A 50-60 KT SSWLY LLJ
TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.  MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVANCE POLEWARD WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S
SPREADING INTO SRN GA...WITH VALUES AROUND 70 F ALONG THE NERN GULF
COAST.  RECENT TRENDS IN OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED ONGOING
DESTABILIZATION WITH MODERATE MUCAPE INTO THE ERN FL PANHANDLE AT
04Z.  GIVEN THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
ACROSS THIS DISCUSSION AREA AND THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING...PARCELS
WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME NEAR-SURFACE TO SURFACE-BASED FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH ENHANCING THE TORNADO POTENTIAL.  IN ADDITION...THERE COULD BE
STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR EAST OF THE ONGOING LINE OF
STORMS THAT WOULD ALSO POSE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

..PETERS/MEAD.. 12/24/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   29688692 30538619 31378511 32048460 32098422 32018366
            31908301 31388270 30558279 29908290 29328307 29118346
            28928425 29688692




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