Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 261444
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261443
NCZ000-261545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0150
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0943 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE NC COAST AND OUTER BANKS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 261443Z - 261545Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN INCREASING BUT LOW PROBABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE
RISK WILL OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE NC COAST AND OUTER BANKS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  THE RISK APPEARS MARGINAL AND A WATCH WILL
LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK
TROUGH/CONFLUENCE ZONE INVOF CAPE FEAR NWD INTO PARTS OF E-CNTRL NC.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ARE INHIBITING STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND LOWER
60S DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK BUOYANCY PER THE 12Z MHX
RAOB /700 J PER KG MUCAPE/.  DESPITE A MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
SETUP...VEERING AND STRENGTHENING WINDS WITH HEIGHT ARE SUPPORTIVE
OF UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION.  KMHX SINGLE SITE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A
SUPERCELL 40 MI SE ILM AROUND 14Z BUT THIS STORM HAS SINCE WEAKENED
AS OF 1435Z.  NONETHELESS...THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE REGION AND AN IMPLIED MESOLOW-LIKE FEATURE
PER MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM
CAPABLE PERHAPS OF A STRONG WIND GUST.  THE STRONG STORM RISK WILL
LIKELY CEASE ONCE THE DISTURBANCE EXITS INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC.

..SMITH/MEAD.. 03/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...

LAT...LON   34657695 35707562 35207557 34657695



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