Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 172130
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172129
KSZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-172300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1516
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0429 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Areas affected...Portions of the southern/central High Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 172129Z - 172300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will spread
across the region this evening, with an attendant threat of damaging
winds and large hail in the strongest storms. Watch issuance is
possible within the next two hours.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery and radar mosaic data
indicate isolated convection has developed across eastern Colorado
and New Mexico late this afternoon. A surface trough and nearby
residual frontal boundary extending from the Texas Panhandle
northward towards the Colorado/Kansas border are supporting weak
low-level convergence, which should enable further convective
development this evening. As storms move east, they will encounter
greater boundary-layer moisture, characterized by surface dew points
in the lower/mid 60s. In turn, MLCAPE values upwards of 2500 J/kg
will likely promote an uptick in intensity. Furthermore, owing to
around 30-40 kt of effective shear, occasional mid-level updraft
rotation is possible, supporting a few instances of large hail.
Damaging winds will also be possible, as downdraft momentum is
enhanced by steep low-level lapse rates. Convective trends are being
monitored for potential watch issuance this evening.

..Picca/Edwards.. 08/17/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   34010343 34920359 36250382 37700374 38410348 38770313
            38760212 38480119 37870110 37030109 34800097 33930166
            33840250 34010343




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