Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 282301
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282301
MNZ000-290100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1754
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0601 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...BOUNDARY WATERS OF NERN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 282301Z - 290100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND MAY ACCOMPANY
SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING SE FROM ONTARIO THROUGH ABOUT 03Z.
RELATIVELY LIMITED SPATIOTEMPORAL EXTENT AND OVERALL AMPLITUDE OF
THE THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE A SVR TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...A RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELL JUST N OF RAINY LAKE APPEARS
LIKELY TO HAVE A SEVERE HAIL CORE PER RECENT MRMS MESH DATA WITHIN
INCREASING TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NWRN ONTARIO. THIS ACTIVITY
APPEARS TO BE TIED TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EVIDENT IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY CROSSING THE BORDER REGION THAT SHOULD ALSO BE
SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WAA PER AFTERNOON MODEL PROGS.
THE MAJORITY OF CAMS APPEAR A BIT OVEREAGER WITH CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR. BUT ON THE FRINGE OF MODERATE MID-LEVEL WNWLYS
AND PROBABLE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...IT APPEARS PLAUSIBLE THAT
A COUPLE TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS AND/OR A MULTICELL CLUSTER DEVELOPS
ESE ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WATERS AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET.
WEAKENING SHEAR WITH SRN EXTENT AND INCREASING MLCIN WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN DIMINISHING INTENSITY TOWARDS LATE EVENING.

..GRAMS/DARROW.. 08/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...

LAT...LON   48759278 48249080 47769091 47419144 47349209 47469282
            47769346 48059380 48619361 48759278




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