000
ACUS11 KWNS 262334
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262333
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-270430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0043
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0533 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN LONG ISLAND / CAPE COD AND PORTIONS OF ERN MA /
RI / SERN CT

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 262333Z - 270430Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES 1+ INCHES/HOUR WILL PROBABLY BEGIN
BETWEEN 01-03 UTC ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND AND
ERN LONG ISLAND.

DISCUSSION...23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ESTIMATED 994-MB LOW 200
MI SE ACY AND SURFACE TEMPS BELOW FREEZING ALONG THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEGATIVE-TILT MID-LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WRN ATLANTIC EARLY THIS EVENING.
VERY STRONG H5 HEIGHT FALLS /180 M PER 12 HR/ WILL LIKELY OCCUR
DOWNSTREAM DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS TO THE SE OF LONG ISLAND
--LEADING TO A RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW BELOW 980-MB AS IT
DEVELOPS NNEWD TO THE SE OF SRN NEW ENGLAND.  RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY
SHOWS A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW MOVING NWWD OVER MARTHA/S VINEYARD WITH
THIS FEATURE TIMED TO MOVE ASHORE COASTAL RI/MA DURING THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS.

MODELS SHOW THE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF SNOWFALL RATES COINCIDENT
WITH STRENGTHENING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FOR
ASCENT INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AND ERN LONG ISLAND DURING THE 01-03 UTC
PERIOD.  INITIALLY SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH/HOUR WILL BE
CONFINED TO IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF RI AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
MA BUT ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP INLAND DURING THE 01-03 UTC PERIOD.
IT IS LIKELY THE HEAVIER RATES /2 INCHES PER HOUR OR GREATER/ WILL
OCCUR BEYOND 04Z CONCURRENT WITH INTENSIFYING MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR
ASCENT FAVORABLY TIMED WITH STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENESIS OVER SRN
ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND.

..SMITH.. 01/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...

LAT...LON   40757284 41297251 42187098 42167040 41976994 41696990
            41226996 40757284