Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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982
ACUS11 KWNS 190715
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190715
TXZ000-190845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0695
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 190715Z - 190845Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS ACROSS WCNTRL TX. HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE THREAT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN MCS ONGOING IN
WCNTRL TX. THE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ON THE WRN EDGE
OF A MOIST AIRMASS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE STORMS ARE IN
THE LOWER 70S F...CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF 1500 TO 1800 J/KG
ACCORDING TO MESOANALYSIS DATA. IN ADDITION...THE WSR-88D VWP AT SAN
ANGELO SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS
WITH 50 KT OF WSWLY FLOW JUST ABOVE 6 KM. THIS IS CREATING MODERATE
TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THIS POINT...RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST THE FAVORED MODE HAS TRANSITIONED TO LINEAR WITH A BOWING
STRUCTURE MOVING EWD TOWARD SAN ANGELO. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS CELL CLUSTER BUT THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE MARGINAL AS INSTABILITY DECREASES OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

..BROYLES.. 05/19/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   30240036 30690146 31070160 31370155 31830127 31660037
            31229986 30240036




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