853
ACUS11 KWNS 230448
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230448
ILZ000-MOZ000-230615-

Mesoscale Discussion 1403
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Areas affected...Central MO toward the MS river

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 230448Z - 230615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A complex of thunderstorms may persist in some fashion
across MO, with at least an isolated damaging wind threat.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived and impressive complex of thunderstorms
continues to trek eastward into central MO, with a history of
damaging winds from northeast KS into western MO. This complex has
been primarily instability driven, with an MLCAPE environment in
excess of 4000 J/kg and otherwise weak low-level flow.

CAMS such as the HRRR and NSSL WRF have forecast this complex fairly
well, and suggest it may make it to the MO river, although in a
weaker state.  Therefore, while some damaging wind potential exists,
it may not be as particularly widespread as earlier.

..Jewell.. 07/23/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   38279280 38369343 38589374 38969388 39469390 39969351
            40269306 40329235 40049146 39739096 39149040 38689012
            38409032 38309199 38279280