Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 231155
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231154
ARZ000-231300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1743
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN ARKANSAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 500...

VALID 231154Z - 231300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 500
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THOUGH SOME POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN FOR
ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THAT STORMS WILL REINTENSIFY IN THE NEAR TERM.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING
SEWD FROM NWRN AR THROUGH NERN OK ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING
AT 30-35 KT. STORMS OVER ARKANSAS HAVE SHOWN A CONSIDERABLE
WEAKENING TREND DURING THE PAST HOUR. THIS TREND IS POSSIBLY A
RESULT OF STRONGER CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...BUT ALSO DUE TO A
TENDENCY FOR LLJ TO VEER TO A WLY AND WNWLY DIRECTION RESULTING IN
WEAKER CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. GIVEN THIS
TENDENCY AND TIME OF DAY...CONFIDENCE IN REINTENSIFICATION REMAINS
LOW...AND WW MAY BE CANCELLED BEFORE 13Z IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

..DIAL.. 08/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...

LAT...LON   35869416 35729311 36129206 35899169 35169288 35329397
            35869416




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