Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 021938
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021937
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-022200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1282
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 PM CDT THU JUL 02 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN/CENTRAL/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 021937Z - 022200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING RISK OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE ISSUANCE OF A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC MESOANALYSIS PLACES A QUASISTATIONARY
FRONT FROM THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE THROUGH W-CNTRL OK N OF CLINTON TO
THE TULSA AREA EXTENDING ENEWD INTO PARTS OF SWRN MO. WITH THE FRONT
HAVING OUTRUN DEEPER ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX
FARTHER N...THE MOST NOTABLE EQUATORWARD SURGES OF LOW THETA-E
AIR -- ENCOURAGED BY THE OUTWARD SPREAD OF RAIN-COOLED AIR -- HAVE
BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS GENERALLY N OF THE KS/OK BORDER.
REGARDLESS...DIURNAL DIABATIC SFC HEATING ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY...WITH THE 18Z
LMN RAOB SAMPLING AROUND 2600 J/KG OF MLCAPE N OF THE BOUNDARY WITH
ONLY LIMITED MLCINH. MODIFICATIONS TO THE 12Z OUN RAOB FOR CURRENT
OKLAHOMA MESONET OBSERVATIONS INDICATE GENERALLY SIMILAR MODERATE TO
STRONG BUOYANCY S OF THE BOUNDARY WITH LITTLE CAPPING.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS INDICATE CONVECTION
DEEPENING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH RECENT LIGHTNING BEING DETECTED
IN GARFIELD COUNTY. TSTMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SCATTERED OWING TO
PERSISTENT ASCENT INVOF THE FRONTAL ZONE...ALONG WITH BAROCLINIC
CIRCULATIONS DRIVEN BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON THE EDGES OF
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS...AND AS PBL CIRCULATIONS CONTINUE TO DEEPEN.
SPEED-MAX RELATED CONVECTION IN KS MAY ALSO SPREAD SEWD INTO NRN OK
AND INTENSIFY AS IT ENCOUNTERS HIGHER-THETA-E AIR.

WITH THE STRONGEST DEEP SHEAR GENERALLY DISPLACED N OF THE STRONGEST
BUOYANCY...CONFIDENCE IN WELL-ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED. REGARDLESS...LARGE DCAPE EVIDENT IN THE 18Z LMN RAOB AND
THE MODIFIED 12Z OUN RAOB OF 1000-1700 J/KG WILL BE CAPABLE OF
SUPPORTING STRONG DOWNBURSTS/OUTFLOW WINDS ON AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
BASIS. WITH STEEPENING TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AND SUBSTANTIAL
UPDRAFT/DOWNDRAFT MASS FLUXES...LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 70
MPH WITH MICROBURSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AREAS NEAR/N OF OKLAHOMA
CITY TO NORMAN TOWARD ENID AND EWD TO THE TULSA AND MCALESTER AREAS
INTO WRN AR WILL BE AT GREATEST RISK FOR THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED SVR HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR.

..COHEN/HART.. 07/02/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   34899709 35429833 36229915 36979907 37159842 36789653
            36689451 36719206 36339103 35489149 35019297 34789548
            34899709




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