000
ACUS11 KWNS 030551
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030550
WVZ000-KYZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-031045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0167
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CST SUN MAR 02 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF KY...FAR SWRN WV AND VA

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 030550Z - 031045Z

SUMMARY...PRECIPITATION RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO EARLY
MON MORNING ACROSS KY...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOWFALL CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF KY. MIXED P-TYPES
FEATURING PREDOMINATELY SLEET/FREEZING RAIN SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SRN HALF OF KY...ALTHOUGH A TRANSITION TO SNOW MAY OCCUR
BY 10-11Z.

DISCUSSION...A BROAD SWATH OF PRECIPITATION PERSISTS ACROSS KY
WITHIN A WARM CONVEYOR PRECEDING AN UPPER WAVE EJECTING EWD OUT OF
THE SRN PLAINS. OBSERVATIONS FROM 05Z INDICATE MIXED P-TYPES ACROSS
MOST OF THE STATE...WHILE SNOWFALL IS BECOMING MORE COMMON NEAR THE
OH VALLEY. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER COLD ADVECTION IS LIKELY TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...WARM ADVECTION ABOVE ROUGHLY 1 KM
AGL SHOULD MAINTAIN AN ABOVE-FREEZING WARM NOSE AND RESULTANT MIXED
P-TYPES ACROSS MUCH OF KY THROUGH 08-09Z. AS THE UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES THE AREA...ACCOMPANYING LLJ WILL SHIFT E OF THE REGION
AND AID IN COOLING TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALOFT...WITH P-TYPE
INCREASINGLY BECOMING SNOW FROM NW-SE THROUGH 11Z.

PRECIPITATION RATES ARE LIKELY TO BE MAINTAINED OR GRADUALLY
INCREASE /SNOWFALL APPROACHING 1 IN/HR/ AS A BAND OF ASCENT
ACCOMPANYING THE PRIMARY UPPER WAVE ARRIVES. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY SLOT IN ITS WAKE QUICKLY PROGRESSING EWD...AND
SHOULD SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN PRECIPITATION RATES FROM
W-E. CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS FEATURE HAS IT REACHING THE I-65
CORRIDOR IN THE 09-10Z TIME FRAME.

..ROGERS.. 03/03/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...PAH...

LAT...LON   36658500 36658317 36708244 37758236 38138221 38578228
            38428406 37958629 37788734 37428765 37048779 36708772
            36658500