Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 250057
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250057
OKZ000-TXZ000-250230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0750
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...OK/TX PANHANDLES AND FAR NORTHWEST OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 250057Z - 250230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TO THE SOUTH OF TORNADO WATCH 206 ACROSS EASTERN
CO/WESTERN KS...MONITORING FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO NORTHWEST OK.

DISCUSSION...WHILE MUCH OF THE CU FIELD SINCE AFTERNOON HAS LARGELY
WANED ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE
PAST HOUR REFLECTS A SUSTENANCE/TOWERING OF THE CU FIELD
PARTICULARLY NEAR THE GUYMON OK/PERRYTON TX VICINITIES IN THE OK
PANHANDLE/NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLE...WITH SUBSEQUENT STORM DEVELOPMENT
INTO THE LIBERAL KS VICINITY. NEAR-SURFACE CONVERGENCE HAS TENDED TO
INCREASE WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR WITH LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS
PREVALENT TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF A DRYLINE WHERE THIS DEVELOPMENT
IS OCCURRING. CONTINUED INCREASING CONVECTIVE TRENDS COULD PROMPT AN
ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE FOR A LARGE HAIL/SOME TORNADO
RISK...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THAT A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING WITH A RELATED INCREASE IN SRH.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

LAT...LON   36860158 36819987 36079967 35500028 35920117 36860158



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