000
ACUS11 KWNS 131638
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131637
PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-131730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1353
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...OH...WRN PA...WRN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 131637Z - 131730Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCT-NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS AFTERNOON.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY RISK.

DISCUSSION...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH HAS PROGRESSED INTO THE BASE OF LARGER TROUGH
ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER.  ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX SHOULD EJECT
ACROSS WI/MI INTO SRN ONTARIO/SWRN QB BY 14/00Z FORCING BELT OF
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ACROSS  PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER THE OH
VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.  12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION
ARE NOT PARTICULARLY CAPPED AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NO
MORE THAN THE LOW-MID 80S.  CU FIELD IS EXPANDING/DEEPENING AHEAD OF
FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS OH/INDIANA AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW MATURING
NEAR CMH IN CNTRL OH.  A GRADUAL UPWARD EVOLUTION IN CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED WITHIN THE MORE CONFLUENT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  DEEP WLY FLOW APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..DARROW/HART.. 07/13/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON   40058405 40778186 42067982 41277834 39408045 38778372
            38818502 39738516 40058405