Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
677
ACUS11 KWNS 111828
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111827
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-112030-
Mesoscale Discussion 1642
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025
Areas affected...Parts of MN into eastern SD
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 111827Z - 112030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms are possible this
afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Storms are gradually increasing in coverage early this
afternoon across west-central MN, in the vicinity of a cold front.
Additional building cumulus and initial storm development has
recently been noted along/ahead of the front across north-central
MN. Additional storm development will be possible along/ahead of the
front this afternoon as a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moves
across southern SK/MB and ND and approaches the region from the
west.
The strongest mid/upper-level flow associated with the approaching
shortwave will lag behind the front, resulting in relatively weak
deep-layer shear along/ahead of the front. This will tend to limit
storm organization to some extent, but moderate to locally strong
buoyancy and steepening low-level lapse rates will support a threat
of isolated hail and damaging gusts with the strongest storms this
afternoon.
..Dean/Mosier.. 07/11/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...
LAT...LON 45389362 44229458 43629557 43259706 43349846 43649861
43839831 44459720 45259629 45789599 46269561 47619498
48879501 49259502 49359479 48629224 48319156 46699259
45389362
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN