Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 210208
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210207
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-210430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1590
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0907 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN NEB...SERN SD...WRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 210207Z - 210430Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED HAIL STORM IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...BUT COVERAGE PROBABLY WILL NOT WARRANT A WATCH.

DISCUSSION...A LEFT-MOVING STORM CAPABLE OF HAIL CONTINUES TO TRAVEL
NNEWD INTO CNTRL NEB THIS EVENING...WITH OTHER WEAK CELLS RECENTLY
NOTED ON RADAR FROM NRN NEB INTO SERN SD. THESE CELLS ARE ROUGHLY
COINCIDENT WITH THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET WHERE SOME
ENHANCED LIFT DUE TO WARM ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE EXISTS.

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH MLCAPE UP TO
3000 J/KG PER 00Z OAX SOUNDING. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS
ALSO INCREASING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS.

THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HAIL AND PERHAPS WIND
WILL BE OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS ACROSS NEB...WITH WEAKER AND MORE
ELEVATED ACTIVITY LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS SERN SD INTO SWRN
MN/NWRN IA.

..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 08/21/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   41089881 41009973 41340034 41980005 43499880 44079810
            44209707 43849593 42839602 41889761 41089881



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