000
ACUS11 KWNS 091752
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091751
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-WVZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-091915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1327
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 PM CDT WED JUL 09 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NE GA...SC...WRN NC...SRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 091751Z - 091915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF ERN
GA...THE WRN CAROLINAS AND SRN VA. MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. WW ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING EWD
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LOCATED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SRN AND CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S F ACROSS THE MCD AREA WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM ERN GA NNEWD ACROSS THE WRN
CAROLINAS INTO VA. MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED AROUND 1500 J/KG ALONG MUCH
OF THIS CORRIDOR BY RAP-V2 DATA. IN ADDITION...THE WSR-88D VWP AT
RAONOKE VA SHOWS A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF
FLOW ABOVE 2 KM AGL. THIS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES THIS AFTERNOON...SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND-DAMAGE
THREAT WITH CELL MERGERS AND SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS.

..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 07/09/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

LAT...LON   33338129 32908234 32908312 33258360 34848360 37238115
            37687980 37387841 36607802 35337990 34548057 33338129