Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
ACUS11 KWNS 312050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312050
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-312245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0852
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...WRN KS...EXTREME SWRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 312050Z - 312245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND. DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE OF SEVERE THREAT...WATCH ISSUANCE IS
CONSIDERED UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS ERN CO INTO
WRN KS THIS AFTERNOON...AS SFC TEMPS WARM INTO THE 80S BENEATH STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. MEANWHILE...MODERATE NWLY FLOW ALOFT IS
RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS...SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
STORM STRUCTURES. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTORS ARE THE LACK OF
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OVER THE REGION AND A RATHER UNFAVORABLE SFC
PATTERN...WITH LIMITED UPSLOPE FLOW AND ONLY WEAK CONVERGENCE AT
LOW-LEVELS.

DESPITE THESE LIMITING FACTORS...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE THREAT IS
LIKELY TO MATERIALIZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A WEAK
SFC LOW ACROSS YUMA COUNTY CO AND A TRAILING WIND SHIFT/CONFLUENCE
ZONE MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORM INITIATION. IN
ADDITION...ONGOING STORMS EMERGING OUT OF THE HIGH TERRAIN MAY
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS THEY MOVE SEWD INTO A MORE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING SEGMENTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED...WW ISSUANCE IS
CONSIDERED UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

..DEAN/MEAD.. 05/31/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   38910413 39860462 40850406 40900317 40900236 39920092
            38850070 37830135 37250158 37090223 37290388 38070483
            38910413



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.