000
ACUS11 KWNS 222231
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222231
WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-230030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1730
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0531 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NE UT...SW WY AND FAR SE ID

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 222231Z - 230030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NE UT...FAR SE ID AND SW WY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
UPON COORDINATION WITH LOCAL WFOS...SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
CONCERNING HOW LONG THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LAST. FOR THIS
REASON...WW ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING ESEWD
ACROSS NRN AND WRN UT. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ARE GENERALLY IN THE 50S F WITH AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY
LOCATED ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN UT ACCORDING TO RAP MESOSCALE ANALYSIS.
A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ALONG THE NRN
EDGE OF THE STRONGER INSTABILITY IN NE UT CLOSE TO THE ID
STATE-LINE. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO LOCATED IN THE EXIT REGION OF A
MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WHICH IS ENHANCING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LIFT
ACROSS NRN UT THIS EVENING. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS HAVE SOME VEERING
OF THE WINDS WITH HEIGHT ALONG WITH STRONG SPEED SHEAR IN THE
MID-LEVELS...CONTRIBUTING TO 75 TO 85 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. FOR THIS
REASON...THE STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE CLUSTER MAY HAVE AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT AS THE CONVECTION MOVES NEWD INTO FAR SE ID
AND SW WY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

..BROYLES/HART.. 09/22/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH...

LAT...LON   42711222 41671211 41191134 41231084 41331048 41570997
            42360963 43070994 43301145 42711222