Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 200550
SPC MCD 200550

Mesoscale Discussion 0195
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

Areas affected...Portions of east-central/southeast TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 200550Z - 200715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe potential will continue to spread
northeastward across portions of east-central/southeast TX into the
overnight hours.

DISCUSSION...An established convective cluster crossing the TX Hill
Country will continue spreading northeastward across parts of
southeast/east-central TX into the overnight hours. Low-level warm
advection and amply moist inflow characterized by surface dewpoints
in the middle 60s to around 70F will continue to maintain some risk
for convection during the next several hours. This is especially the
case given the approach of a midlevel speed max from the west and
related large-scale ascent, contributing to modest overnight
instability. Strong vertical shear profiles will support organized
convection, with sufficient low-level shear for brief/embedded
meso-vortices. Locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief
tornado or two could occur. However, the relatively widespread
convective coverage and numerous cell interactions may be disruptive
for a more substantial/longer-duration severe risk. Regardless,
convective and environmental trends will continue to be monitored.

..Cohen/Darrow/Thompson.. 02/20/2017

...Please see for graphic product...


LAT...LON   29799722 30049764 30789749 31319687 31199608 30529594
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