Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 291756
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291756
OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-292000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1773
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NM...CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 291756Z - 292000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
EAST/NORTHEAST FROM THE MOUNTAINS OF NM/CO THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO INTENSIFY AND ORGANIZE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
WITH DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL POTENTIAL INCREASING FROM NORTHEAST NM
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO. A WATCH APPEARS LIKELY BY 20 UTC/2 PM MDT.

DISCUSSION...A POTENT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS
WAS ROUNDING THE BASE OF A LARGE-SCALE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. STRONGLY FORCED ASCENT WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
WAS EVIDENT IN LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS A LAYERED
COMMA-HEAD CLOUD STRUCTURE TRACKING TOWARD THE FOUR-CORNERS.
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS BEEN UNDERWAY WITHIN THE WEAKLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE COMMA-HEAD/VORT MAX...FROM NORTHWEST
NM INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CO. EXPECT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS STRONGER DYNAMIC
FORCING AND LOWERING STATIC STABILITY SPREAD EAST/NORTHEAST.

AIRMASS ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE HAS BEEN WARMING INTO THE
70S F IN MOST AREAS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO THESE AREAS HAS
BEEN ADEQUATE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY RISING THROUGH THE
LOW-MID 50S F. STEEPENING LOW THROUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION COINCIDENT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
STRONGER ASCENT TO SUPPORT A CORRIDOR OF MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 500
J/KG. CONVECTION INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND DEVELOPING EAST
FROM THE MOUNTAINS TO ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS SHOULD GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN
AS THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 50-60KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK TRACK
EAST/NORTHEAST. WHILE INITIALLY CELLULAR/DISCRETE...WITH TIME STORMS
MAY TEND CONCENTRATE ALONG/NEAR STRENGTHENING LEE-TROUGH/LOW
GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING OVER EASTERN CO/NORTHEAST NM. GIVEN 40-60KT
EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR AND ORIENTATION OF MID-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS...INITIALLY CELLULAR CONVECTION MAY TEND
TO EVOLVE INTO FAST-MOVING LINE SEGMENTS AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES. IN ADDITION TO SOME CHANCE FOR SEVERE HAIL AROUND 1 INCH
IN DIAMETER...SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY TO EVOLVE AS
STORMS INCREASE/INTENSIFY AND SPREAD EAST.

ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED FROM NORTHEAST CO INTO
ADJACENT AREAS OF WY/NEB/KS. THESE AREAS WILL BE ADDRESSED IN
SEPARATE DISCUSSION AND MAY ALSO BE PLACED UNDER A WATCH LATER
TODAY.

..CARBIN/MEAD.. 09/29/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   37560566 38580527 38900509 39210465 39340386 39240324
            39090273 38200218 36770228 35970282 35310380 34270593
            34270656 34500711 34930720 35590701 36460627 37560566



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