Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 281959
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281958
COZ000-282200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1423
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 281958Z - 282200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
THEN MOVE EWD WITH THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SVR TSTMS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A WW MAY EVENTUALLY
BE NEEDED OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

DISCUSSION...RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS INCREASING CU
ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES AS DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION
CONTINUES UNDER NWLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS OVER SW NEB EXTENDING FROM THE MCS
WWD TO JUST S OF FTG AND THEN NWWD TO BDU. THIS BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE
THE IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS BEHIND THE OUTFLOW ARE CURRENTLY COOL
AND LESS UNSTABLE SO ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SOON MAY HAVE
DIFFICULTLY PERSISTING...ALTHOUGH CONTINUED HEATING WITHIN THE CLEAR
SKIES BEHIND THE OUTFLOW MAY EVENTUALLY LEAD TO DESTABILIZATION
DURING LATE AFTERNOON. AIRMASS TO THE S OF THE OUTFLOW IS WARM --
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S -- AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE -- MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG.

EVENTUAL CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH NWLY FLOW ALOFT THEN TAKING THESE STORMS INTO THE WARM AND
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE ERN CO PLAINS. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES...A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE STRONG COLD POOLS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR UPSCALE GROWTH EXISTS. HOWEVER...ANY UPSCALE GROWTH WILL BE TIED
TO STORM COVERAGE/PROXIMITY AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MCS
DEVELOPMENT IS CURRENTLY HIGH. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE
FAVORED WITH THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WITH A TRANSITION TO MAINLY
STRONG WINDS IF ANY UPSCALE GROWTH IS REALIZED. A WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION TO COVER THE ANTICIPATED SVR
POTENTIAL.

..MOSIER/DIAL.. 07/28/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   39640532 40900546 40940364 40400282 39380238 38270230
            37260280 37110420 37340499 39640532




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