Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 250605
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250605
TNZ000-MSZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-250800-

Mesoscale Discussion 0326
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Areas affected...Parts of eastern AR...western TN...northern
MS...southeastern MO...far southern IL...and far western KY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 250605Z - 250800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for localized strong to damaging winds and
perhaps a brief tornado may continue for the next several hours
before diminishing. Due to the isolated nature of this threat, watch
issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...A line of strong to severe thunderstorms with a history
of producing wind damage across parts of central AR continues to
move quickly east-northeastward into the Mid-South around 45-50 kt
as of 06Z. Although low-level moisture remains limited ahead of this
line, modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates are supporting MUCAPE
up to 500 J/kg per recent RAP Mesoanalysis. VWP from KNQA shows a
veering/strengthening wind profile with height, and 45-50 kt of 0-1
km shear should allow for continued line maintenance for at least
the next several hours. Strong to locally damaging winds will likely
remain the primary threat, although a brief tornado may also occur
within the line given the strength of the low-level shear. As the
line approaches and eventually crosses the MS River over the next
several hours, continued slow diurnal cooling and weakening
instability with eastward extent suggest that the line will probably
undergo weakening. This scenario is supported by recent HRRR runs.

..Gleason/Grams.. 03/25/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   34429088 36079083 37049057 37278946 37068900 36068885
            34758893 34288916 34008964 34049051 34429088



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