Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 230614
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230613
IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-230745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0690
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL NEB AND SE SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 195...197...

VALID 230613Z - 230745Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
195...197...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ERN
PART OF WW 197 AND WW 195 OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WIND DAMAGE AND
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE SHOULD
BECOME MORE MARGINAL TOWARD 08Z AND ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW A SOLID LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED FROM WEST OF SIOUX FALLS SSWWD TO JUST
NORTHEAST OF MCCOOK NEB. THIS LINE IS LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF AN
AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE 1000
TO 1800 J/KG RANGE. THE LINE IS BEING SUPPORTED BY LIFT ON THE WRN
EDGE OF A 50 TO 65 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. THE INSTABILITY AND STRONG
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE
LINE FOR A SEVERAL MORE HOURS. HOWEVER...THE LINE SHOULD GRADUALLY
BECOME ELEVATED AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DECOUPLE. FOR
THIS REASON...THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BECOME MARGINAL.
HAIL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CORES BUT SHOULD ALSO
BECOME MARGINAL AS INSTABILITY DECREASES.

..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 05/23/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON   44029788 43359875 42259961 41220024 40050024 40009919
            40359859 42019770 43429640 43969658 44149732 44029788




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