Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 200053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200053
TXZ000-200200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1658
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Areas affected...North-central TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 200053Z - 200200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...The small thunderstorm complex northwest of Dallas/Fort
Worth will continue to pose a short-term threat of isolated damaging
wind, before weakening later this evening.

DISCUSSION...The small thunderstorm complex that developed along the
western edge of the deeper low-level moisture has thus far
maintained its intensity and is now approaching the Dallas/Fort
Worth area from the northwest. The recent FWD sounding (modified for
current surface conditions) shows moderate MLCAPE of around 1500
J/kg and effective shear of around 25 kts, sufficient for some weak
convective organization. The longevity of this system will be
limited by increasing SBCINH with time as nocturnal cooling
commences, though it may be sufficiently organized to last for
another 1-2 hours as it approaches the Metroplex. Given the
increasingly linear nature of the convective system, the primary
remaining severe threat should be in the form of isolated damaging
wind, though some hail will also be possible with the strongest
updrafts.

..Dean/Edwards.. 09/20/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33369866 33719790 33419718 33039683 32749676 32529686
            32419732 32669819 32929859 33369866



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