Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 220408
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220408
INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-WIZ000-MOZ000-220515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1353
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NW INDIANA...NRN/CENTRAL IL...ERN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 407...

VALID 220408Z - 220515Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 407
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS HAS DIMINISHED AND WW 407 WILL
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 05Z.

DISCUSSION...A WELL-DEVELOPED MCS IS MOVING TO THE S AND SSW AT
25-30 KT ACROSS NW INDIANA/NRN IL AND ERN IA.   THE CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WHILE MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL
IL AND SE IA/EXTREME NE MO...SUSTAINED BY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW OF A
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM THE WSW.  HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND
VERTICAL SHEAR WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT AND OUTFLOW IS TENDING TO
UNDERCUT THE UPDRAFTS...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD
CONTINUE.  STORM MOTIONS HAVE ALSO SLOWED TO AOB 30 KT AND ONLY
SUB-SEVERE GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS CONVECTION SINCE
03Z...ALL OF WHICH SUGGEST THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
DAMAGING WINDS HAS LIKEWISE DIMINISHED.  AS SUCH...WW 407 WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 05Z...OR REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE WATCH COULD
BE CANCELED PRIOR TO EXPIRATION.

..THOMPSON.. 07/22/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...ARX...

LAT...LON   41268846 41558750 41598707 41378689 40718683 40328694
            39898785 39658886 39698997 39849087 40089150 40689183
            41699187 42279178 42909153 42999128 42829089 42239067
            41679014 41238931 41268846



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