Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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968
ACUS11 KWNS 262214
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262213
OKZ000-TXZ000-262345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0336
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0513 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern Oklahoma and north central
Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 86...

Valid 262213Z - 262345Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 86 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will continue to increase
across parts of north central Texas into south central Oklahoma
through the 7-9 pm CDT time frame.

DISCUSSION...Discrete storm development is now underway across parts
of south central Oklahoma into north central Texas, where low-level
convergence has become locally enhanced near a pre-cold frontal
confluence zone in the vicinity of the dryline.  Further
intensification is likely during the next few hours within a
strongly sheared environment characterized by at least modest
instability.

Even within a narrow corridor of relatively higher moisture content
ahead of the dry line, moisture remains somewhat marginal for
intense convective development.  However, thermal profiles are
relatively cool at mid-levels with generally steep lapse rates that
appear quite favorable for severe hail in strongest storms.

A zone of enhanced mid-level forcing for associated associated with
a short wave impulse pivoting east of the south central high Plains
may augment storm development and perhaps support
consolidation/upscale growth of initially discrete storms into an
evolving line as early as the 00-02Z time frame.  As this occurs
potentially damaging wind gusts may become a more prominent threat.


Until then, large hail appears the primary severe threat.  The
extent of the tornadic potential remains a bit more unclear, but the
leading edge of a corridor of better low-level moisture return that
now appears to be spreading across the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex
may contribute to more favorable boundary layer conditions as it
gradually continues to advect northward into the Red River vicinity
through early evening.

..Kerr.. 03/26/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   35509662 35619569 35019512 32999633 32299727 32569842
            34719750 35509662




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