Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 242206
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242205
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-250030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0710
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0505 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR/FAR WESTERN TN/EASTERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 242205Z - 250030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY /FAR SOUTHEAST MO AND NORTHEAST AR/ AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY /NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL AR/ OF THE ORGANIZED
EASTWARD-MOVING MCS WHICH ENCOMPASSES SOUTHEAST MO TO NORTHERN AR.
PORTIONS OF THIS AREA FROM CENTRAL AR INTO FAR EASTERN OK MAY NEED
AN UPGRADE TO GREATER SEVERE PROBABILITIES AND A SLIGHT RISK
CATEGORY.   WW ISSUANCE IS BEING CONSIDERED.

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN MCS WITH AN EMBEDDED MCV
TRACKING TO THE EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THIS COMPLEX...WHICH HAS REMAINED THE MOST ACTIVE WITH NEW TSTM
DEVELOPMENT...ACROSS NORTHERN AR.  DESPITE EARLIER VWP AT
SPRINGFIELD MO SHOWING A VEER-BACK-VEER WIND PROFILE WITH MODEST
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...THE WIND FIELDS /POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY THE MCV
CIRCULATION/ APPEAR TO BE RESULTING IN STRONGER EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
OF 35-40 KT FROM EASTERN OK TO FAR WESTERN TN.  MEANWHILE...
S/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED THE SOUTHERN
FLANK OF THIS MCS WITH A RATHER MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT /GIVEN MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J PER KG/.

BULK SHEAR VECTORS ARE GENERALLY ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN AR...SUGGESTING EMBEDDED LINEAR STRUCTURES WILL
BE THE PRIMARY STORM MODE...THOUGH SUPERCELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH STEEP
LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE TRAILING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL OK...WITH THE EXPANDING AREA OF
COOLING CLOUD TOPS LOCATED IN NORTHWEST AR.  THIS AREA IS CLOSER TO
THE STRONGER INFLOW OF MOIST AIR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY.  STORMS
MOVING EAST FROM SOUTHEAST MO AND NORTHEAST AR SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY
MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EASTWARD EXTENT INTO FAR
WESTERN KY/WESTERN TN.

..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 05/24/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...TSA...

LAT...LON   34519136 34319195 34249274 34409359 34669433 34979466
            35459467 35839309 36049213 36209156 36379077 36029025
            35479018 35199026 34719079 34519136




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