Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 021116
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021116
MNZ000-NDZ000-021345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1582
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0616 AM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/WRN MN...ERN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 021116Z - 021345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SVR-HAIL POTENTIAL WILL EXIST EARLY THIS
MORNING...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...A RECENT UPSWING IN CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED ACROSS
PARTS OF ERN ND INTO NWRN MN WITHIN A BAND OF ASCENT RELATED TO A
MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX CROSSING THE REGION PER WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY.
CLOUD-TOP COOLING IMPLIED BY IR IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS THE WWD
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION INTO THE REGION...WHERE A FEED OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS BEING MAINTAINED FROM THE W. TSTMS WILL CONTINUE
SPREADING SEWD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
AMIDST MUCAPE AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL MAY
OCCUR...AIDED BY AROUND 50 KT OF DEEP SHEAR SAMPLED BY THE MVX VWP.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONGER ELEVATED BUOYANCY DISPLACED ESEWD ACROSS THE
REGION TOWARD THE UPPER MS RIVER AND POINTS EWD...THE SVR-HAIL RISK
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED/MARGINAL.

..COHEN/EDWARDS.. 08/02/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

LAT...LON   46999736 47489548 46819449 45919539 46119687 46999736



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