Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 101849
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101848
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-102045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1708
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL MO...CNTRL IL...FAR W-CNTRL IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 101848Z - 102045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
WIND DAMAGE AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
FOR A POTENTIAL WW.

DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA HAVE INDICATED
AN INCREASE IN TSTM STRENGTH ACROSS CNTRL IL AHEAD OF A SEWD
PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
KEEP LAPSE RATES AND OVERALL INSTABILITY LOW BUT A VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL STILL PROMOTE AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY. THIS
AREA IS ON THE SWRN EDGE OF THE INCREASED LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW BUT
SHEAR REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. RECENT
ILX VAD SHOWS DECENT LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR WITH 0-3
KM SRH OVER 300 M2/S2.

STORM MODE WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY MULTICELLULAR WITH TRANSIENT BOWING
SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A FEW LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS. AS A
RESULT...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH A
BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE. TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL WW.

..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 09/10/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   38659156 39209127 40078972 40628799 40128712 38438848
            37858996 38229105 38659156




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