Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
ACUS11 KWNS 272050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272049
VAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-272245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1487
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN VA THROUGH WRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 272049Z - 272245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO MOVE OR DEVELOP
FARTHER EAST INTO WRN VA AND WRN NC. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...THEY
WILL BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND IN
ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS SEVERE THREAT MAY STILL BE AT LEAST A COUPLE HOURS AWAY FOR
THIS REGION.

DISCUSSION...LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOW A RESERVOIR OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS SWRN VA INTO WRN NC.
THE STRONGER CAPE IS OVER WRN NC WHERE GREATER DIABATIC WARMING OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS OCCURRED. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS CURRENTLY
WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION...AND ANVIL DEBRIS IS LIMITING MORE ROBUST
HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS.
MOREOVER...WLY DEEP LAYER WINDS ARE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO DOWNSLOPE
INDUCED SUBSIDENCE. THEREFORE...NEAR TERM THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...AS UPPER JET EXIT REGION SHIFTS
EWD...STORMS MIGHT EVENTUALLY DEVELOP FROM WRN NC INTO WRN AND SWRN
VA...PRIMARILY AFTER 23Z. SHOULD STORMS INITIATE...STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

..DIAL/HART.. 07/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON   36258190 36848150 37238020 37047889 35927980 35568203
            35808266 36258190




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.