Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 142024
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142023
OKZ000-TXZ000-142300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1976
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL OK THROUGH NCNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 142023Z - 142300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW INCLUDING A
PORTION OF CNTRL OK INTO NCNTRL TX. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A
COUPLE OF TORNADOES...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DESTABILIZED IN
A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM WCNTRL OK INTO THE WRN PORTIONS OF NCNTRL TX
WHERE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES AN AXIS OF 500 J/KG
MLCAPE. THIS ZONE OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE
TO POCKETS OF MODEST DIABATIC WARMING WHERE A FEW CLOUD BREAKS EXIST
IN DRY SLOT REGION AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. ALSO MID-LEVEL ASCENT AND
COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGRESSIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS
ADVANCING EWD AND OVERTAKING THE MOIST AXIS. STORMS HAVE UNDERGONE A
RECENT INCREASE IN INTENSITY...AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING AND
ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS THE INSTABILITY
AXIS DEVELOPS EWD. VWP DATA INDICATE LARGE HODOGRAPHS ASSOCIATED
WITH A 40 KT LLJ...AND A MID-LEVEL JET ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO 45-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THOUGH
WEAK INSTABILITY MAY CONTINUE TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR...IT MAY
BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A MODEST THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.

..DIAL/HART.. 12/14/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33989806 34989801 35579787 35689699 34229621 33089631
            32509719 32689822 33989806



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