Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 231038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231038
OKZ000-TXZ000-231215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0721
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0538 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 231038Z - 231215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY PARTS OF AN MCS
CROSSING THE PANHANDLE THROUGH MID-MORNING...BUT OVERALL LONGEVITY
OF THE RISK APPEARS TO BE LIMITED.

DISCUSSION...AMALGAMATING TSTM CLUSTERS HAVE YIELDED A QLCS FROM
SHERMAN TO PARMER COUNTIES. WITH MEASURED WIND GUSTS AROUND 65-70
MPH REPORTED BY MESONET OBS NEAR THE BOWING PORTION OF THE LINE
AROUND AMARILLO...THE COLD POOL HAS BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SEVERE GUSTS PENETRATING THE NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER THAT LIKELY LIES
FROM ABOUT I-40 NWD. WITH THE SFC WARM FRONT STILL OVER THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS...THIS EWD-PROPAGATING BOWING STRUCTURE SHOULD WEAKEN
IN THE PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE AIR MASS LIKELY PRESENT OVER THE
E-CNTRL TX PANHANDLE. 1-MIN IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS MAY ALREADY BE
UNDERWAY AS THE AREAL EXTENT OF COLDEST CLOUD TOPS HAS BEGUN TO
DECREASE IN THE PAST HALF HOUR. BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANOTHER
SMALL-SCALE BOW COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE TRAILING SWRN FLANK OF THE
LINE AS IT SHIFTS EWD CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT.

..GRAMS/HART.. 05/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   36180152 36290089 36210028 35930003 35199999 34400075
            34310121 34250272 34380289 34570287 35030173 35590149
            36180152




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