Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 272042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272041
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-MTZ000-272315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1410
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 272041Z - 272315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED SVR HAIL/WIND IS INCREASING ACROSS
AN EXTENSIVE CORRIDOR OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS.
THIS RISK WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY...THOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM THE VICINITY OF THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS TO THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT RANGE IN WY/CO...ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARCHING
FROM NERN WY INTO SERN MT...AND IN PROXIMITY TO A DIFFUSE SFC
BOUNDARY ORIENTED W/E ACROSS PARTS OF KS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD
GENERALLY SEWD/SSEWD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AMIDST
WEAK-MAGNITUDE -- THOUGH MODESTLY MOIST -- UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE
CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS.

WITH MLCAPE AROUND 500-1500 J/KG -- LOCALLY STRONGER IN WRN KS --
COUPLED WITH AROUND 25-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...ISOLATED SVR
HAIL/WIND WITH OCCASIONALLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES ARE
EXPECTED. SVR COVERAGE IS PRESENTLY FORECAST TO BE TOO LIMITED FOR
WW ISSUANCE...GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IMPLIED
BY WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY. HOWEVER...IF LOCAL COLD-POOL AMALGAMATION
WERE TO FACILITATE A GREATER-COVERAGE SVR-WIND RISK ASSOCIATED WITH
UPSCALE-CONVECTIVE GROWTH...WW PROBABILITIES COULD INCREASE. THIS
COULD BE THE CASE ACROSS PARTS OF ERN WY AND VICINITY...WHERE
MODESTLY STRONGER DEEP SHEAR IS PRESENT.

..COHEN/DIAL.. 07/27/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON   39360065 38650041 38340058 38210140 38750207 39890393
            41030488 43720655 44850709 45530640 45620554 44810506
            44030464 41740377 40870232 39360065



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