000
ACUS11 KWNS 290438
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290438
KSZ000-COZ000-290545-

Mesoscale Discussion 1180
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Areas affected...Northeast CO...Northwest KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 290438Z - 290545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible across
northeast CO and northwest KS into the early morning hours. Hail is
the greatest risk with this activity.

DISCUSSION...Weak large-scale ascent is spreading across the central
Rockies along the southern fringe of a short-wave trough digging
across the northern inter-mountain region. Over the last hour or so
convection has gradually increased in areal coverage/intensity along
the Palmer Divide within favorable easterly low-level flow. This
activity is developing within a sheared regime that is supportive of
maintaining organized updrafts as they spread toward northwest KS.
Latest radar data suggests severe hail is observed with the
strongest storms and convection may increase over the next few hours
as it encounters a strengthening LLJ over western KS. Latest HRRR
guidance supports this scenario and there is increasing confidence
this activity may have some longevity. Will monitor this region for
possible WW but coverage/intensity may be inadequate for severe
thunderstorm watch.

..Darrow/Weiss.. 06/29/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON   39410378 39810236 39810046 38770055 38730373 39410378