Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 141919
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141918
FLZ000-GAZ000-142145-
Mesoscale Discussion 1669
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025
Areas affected...southeastern Georgia into northern/central Florida
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 141918Z - 142145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
intensity through the afternoon, posing an isolated threat of
damaging winds. A severe thunderstorm watch is unlikely.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have initiated on low-level convergence
boundaries across the region this afternoon in a hot, unstable
(~2500 J/kg MLCAPE) airmass. While upper-tropospheric flow is weak
(per XMR 14Z sounding), enhanced low-to-midlevel northerly flow on
the west side of the low off the Atlantic coast may help storm
organization. Local VWPs indicate around 25-30 knots of flow
between 700 and 500 mb, which may help to organize
southward-to-south-southwestward-propagating clusters as cold pools
begin to merge. These storms will pose a damaging-wind threat this
afternoon, but the impacts are expected to be too isolated to
warrant a watch.
..Jirak/Mosier.. 07/14/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 26808223 27278110 28788125 29898159 30868165 31688153
31898189 31778225 30928258 30228283 29458293 28818264
28168277 27498273 26808223
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH