Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 261405
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261405
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-261530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0738
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0905 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ILLINOIS INTO WRN INDIANA...AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF THE LWR OHIO VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 261405Z - 261530Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT A
MODESTLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI INTO
LOWER OHIO VALLEYS REMAINS RATHER STRONGLY CAPPED BY WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES.  HOWEVER...FORCING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
CONSOLIDATED EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS IS
STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THIS INHIBITION AND MAINTAIN VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WESTERLY
AMBIENT DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION IS RATHER
MODEST...ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KT.  AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
ACTIVITY IS TENDING TO FORWARD PROPAGATE INTO A PROGRESSIVELY LESS
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EASTWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY.

LONGER TERM SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM SEEMS LIMITED.  HOWEVER...UNTIL CONVECTION BEGINS INGESTING
LESS UNSTABLE AIR /PERHAPS BY 15Z/...40+ KT SURFACE GUSTS AND
GENERALLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY PERSIST NEAR STRONGER ACTIVITY/

..KERR/HART.. 05/26/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...

LAT...LON   37778965 38238867 38978824 39478747 40228728 41018719
            41078549 39808558 38118739 37338871 37668942 37778965




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