Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 181551
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181551
MIZ000-MNZ000-181945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0070
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0951 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Areas affected...Northeastern Minnesota

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 181551Z - 181945Z

SUMMARY...Sustained heavy snow rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour
appear to be in the process of developing across northeastern
Minnesota, near Hibbing.  This is expected to continue and spread
east northeastward across the Minnesota Arrowhead region through 3-5
PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...Moderate to heavy snow is already underway within an
area of northeastern Minnesota centered around Hibbing.  This is
occurring in response to lift associated with low-level warm
advection and lower/mid tropospheric frontogenesis, within a band to
the northeast of a relatively deep surface cyclone over eastern
South Dakota.  Models generally indicate that this forcing will
increase into the afternoon hours, and gradually pivot across the
Minnesota Arrowhead region as the upstream pattern continues to
gradually amplify.

Forecast soundings suggest that lift may become maximized within a
deepening mixed phase layer favorable for dendritic ice crystal
growth for a 4-6 hour period through 21-23Z this afternoon.
Although available moisture appears somewhat modest, guidance
indicates that cold soundings with high snow to liquid water
equivalent values will probably support 1-2 inch per snow rates.

..Kerr.. 02/18/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...

LAT...LON   47589325 48229285 48759085 48298889 47398956 46929175
            46909277 47589325




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