Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 200201
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200201
MOZ000-KSZ000-200330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0523
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0901 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Areas affected...East-central/southeast KS...West-central MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 200201Z - 200330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A downstream watch may be needed to address the potential
severe threat across east-central and southeast KS.

DISCUSSION...A line of severe thunderstorms is moving southeastward
across central KS at about 20-25 kt. This storm motion will put this
line of storms near the edge of watch 149 around 03Z. Some slowing
of the cold front and, as a result, the storms along it, is
anticipated as it becomes more displaced from its parent upper
system (currently moving across the northern Plains). Even so,
increasing low-level flow will increase convergence into the frontal
zone and the general expectation is for thunderstorms to persist for
the next several hours into east-central and southeast KS. Effective
bulk shear will remain supportive of organized updrafts but given
the linear storm mode and continually stabilizing low-levels, the
areal coverage of any severe threat is uncertain. Southwestward
backbuilding is expected across western portions of the front moving
into south-central KS. Some hail and wind threat is possible across
this area, particularly with any initial development, but, as with
area farther east, decreasing instability, a more linear storm mode,
and undercut nature to the convection suggest a fairly limited
overall severe threat. Convective trends across this entire region
will be monitored closely for potential downstream watch issuance.

..Mosier/Edwards.. 04/20/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON   37509904 37989772 39149602 39399556 39519499 39549444
            39399423 39119418 38919427 38579465 38299497 38039534
            37739587 37109720 37079870 37509904




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