Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 200201
SPC MCD 200201

Mesoscale Discussion 0523
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0901 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Areas affected...East-central/southeast KS...West-central MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 200201Z - 200330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A downstream watch may be needed to address the potential
severe threat across east-central and southeast KS.

DISCUSSION...A line of severe thunderstorms is moving southeastward
across central KS at about 20-25 kt. This storm motion will put this
line of storms near the edge of watch 149 around 03Z. Some slowing
of the cold front and, as a result, the storms along it, is
anticipated as it becomes more displaced from its parent upper
system (currently moving across the northern Plains). Even so,
increasing low-level flow will increase convergence into the frontal
zone and the general expectation is for thunderstorms to persist for
the next several hours into east-central and southeast KS. Effective
bulk shear will remain supportive of organized updrafts but given
the linear storm mode and continually stabilizing low-levels, the
areal coverage of any severe threat is uncertain. Southwestward
backbuilding is expected across western portions of the front moving
into south-central KS. Some hail and wind threat is possible across
this area, particularly with any initial development, but, as with
area farther east, decreasing instability, a more linear storm mode,
and undercut nature to the convection suggest a fairly limited
overall severe threat. Convective trends across this entire region
will be monitored closely for potential downstream watch issuance.

..Mosier/Edwards.. 04/20/2017

...Please see for graphic product...


LAT...LON   37509904 37989772 39149602 39399556 39519499 39549444
            39399423 39119418 38919427 38579465 38299497 38039534
            37739587 37109720 37079870 37509904 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.