Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 272040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272040
UTZ000-AZZ000-272245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1771
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...AZ...UT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 508...

VALID 272040Z - 272245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 508
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN...HAIL...AND
A POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...WILL MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AZ OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

DISCUSSION...MOST VIGOROUS STORMS WITHIN SEVERE TSTM WATCH 508
CURRENTLY RESIDE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL MARICOPA COUNTY
AND WESTERN AND NORTHERN YAVAPAI COUNTY...AND WERE DEVELOPING
NORTHEAST AROUND 30KT. VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS
SOUTHERN AZ SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN
THE FORM OF HAIL AND HIGH WINDS AS THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
PHOENIX METRO AREA...AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST...OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS.

CONVECTION WITHIN THE NORTH-SOUTH PLUME OVER NORTHERN AREAS OF THE
WATCH...FROM NORTHERN AZ INTO SOUTHERN UT...HAS SHOWN A TENDENCY TO
WEAKEN OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS DESPITE THE CONTINUATION OF STRONG
LIFT ACCOMPANYING THE APPROACH OF THE LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER TROUGH
FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...ISOLATED DISCRETE STRONGER UPDRAFTS APPEAR
TO BE FORMING IN THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR TO THE EAST...OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN NAVAJO COUNTY...AND EASTERN KANE COUNTY IN UT. EXPECT
THE PROSPECTS OF AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND/OR STRONG WINDS
TO DEVELOP WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS
OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC REGIMES REMAIN CONDUCIVE TO
ORGANIZED STORMS IN THE FORM OF TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS AND FAST-MOVING
LINE SEGMENTS.

..CARBIN/MEAD.. 09/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...GJT...TWC...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF...

LAT...LON   32591175 32591312 35521273 38471234 38471087 38470938
            35520988 32591037 32591175



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