Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 231813
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231812
FLZ000-GAZ000-232015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1986
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1212 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231812Z - 232015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
MAY POSE A THREAT FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR BRIEF TORNADOES
AS THEY MOVE ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...INCREASING WAA ALOFT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW-LEVEL
FORCING FROM A LINE OF CONFLUENCE EXTENDING S OFFSHORE THE FL
PANHANDLE...HAS LED TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST KEVX DATA INDICATE A FEW OF THESE
CELLS ARE ACQUIRING LOW/MID-LEVEL ROTATION /I.E. CELLS SSW OF PANAMA
CITY/...AND THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS THEY PROGRESS THROUGH
AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY EFFECTIVE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50
KT. HOWEVER...ONCE THESE CELLS MOVE ONSHORE...THEY WILL ENCOUNTER A
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY RELATIVELY LOWER DEW
POINTS AND DECREASING MUCAPE /E.G. LESS THAN 500 J PER KG/ ACROSS
THE AREA. WHILE EFFECTIVE SRH DECREASES WITH NEWD EXTENT...LATEST
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FURTHERMORE...ADVECTION OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR FROM OFFSHORE WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SFC-BASED
BUOYANCY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS SUCH...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL WATCH THIS AFTERNOON.

..PICCA/CORFIDI.. 12/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

LAT...LON   29668517 30328606 30928608 30898512 30608363 30168339
            29888359 30098421 29668482 29668517



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