000
ACUS11 KWNS 022349
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022348
WVZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-030545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0163
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0548 PM CST SUN MAR 02 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF KY...NWRN TN...SRN WV

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 022348Z - 030545Z

SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN THREAT SHOULD EXPAND SWD/EWD THIS EVENING
FROM NWRN TN....ENEWD ACROSS KY INTO SRN WV. MIXED P-TYPES MAY
BECOME MORE PREVALENT WITH NWD EXTENT...WHERE A MIX OF SLEET AND/OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION PERSISTS.
AN EVENTUAL CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ACROSS WRN/NRN KY IS EXPECTED LATE
SUN EVENING INTO EARLY MON MORNING.

DISCUSSION...BROAD SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION
PRIMARILY ALONG/S OF THE OH VALLEY IS CO-LOCATED WITH AN AXIS OF
0.75-1 INCH PW. SFC COLD FRONT HAS REACHED THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS...AND AT LEAST MODEST POST-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION IS ONGOING...WITH THE SFC FREEZING LINE ROUGHLY BISECTING
KY FROM SW-NE AS OF 23Z. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT A WARM NOSE CENTERED ABOVE 1.5 KM AGL.

FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD INTO THIS EVENING AS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL. THIS WILL OCCUR
CONTEMPORANEOUSLY WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION RATES /0.1-0.25 IN
PER HR/ AS AN UPSTREAM LEAD WAVE OVER THE ARKLATEX APPROACHES THE
MID-MS VALLEY...AND 1.5-3 KM AGL LAYER FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS.
SLEET MAY BECOME MORE COMMON WITH TIME /ESPECIALLY IN CNTRL/NRN KY/
AS WARM NOSE BECOMES LESS PRONOUNCED AND SFC TEMPERATURES FALL INTO
THE 20S F.

..ROGERS.. 03/02/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   38068327 38108151 37658134 37198241 36768483 36398658
            36028890 36408917 36738909 37088842 37478678 37818497
            37968406 38068327