Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 240142
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240142
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-240445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0094
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LA...CNTRL MS...AND FAR WRN PORTIONS OF CNTRL
AL

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 240142Z - 240445Z

SUMMARY...A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL OCCUR THROUGH AT
LEAST 04Z. FREEZING RAIN RATES UP TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH/HR
WILL BE LIKELY. HIGHER RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHALLOW CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS ACROSS CNTRL MS.

DISCUSSION...A SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION EVIDENT ON
AREA RADARS AS OF 0130Z IS MOVING EWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW/MID-LEVEL LIFT. LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL AS
NORTHERLY WINDS BRING COLDER LOW-LEVEL AIR OVER THE REGION...AND
SLEET/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS BAND OF
PRECIPITATION.

THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM JACKSON MS SUPPORTS FREEZING RAIN AS THE
PREDOMINANT P-TYPE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS GIVEN A PRONOUNCED WARM
NOSE ALOFT MAXIMIZED AROUND 850 TO 800 MB...AND A SHALLOW LAYER OF
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE THE SFC. INDIVIDUAL ELEMENTS
WITHIN THE BROADER PRECIPITATION BAND WILL MOVE FROM NRN LA INTO
CNTRL MS AND FAR WRN PORTIONS OF CNTRL AL AS SFC TEMPERATURES FALL
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...AND
FREEZING RAIN RATES OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR WILL BE
LIKELY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RATES MAY BE HIGHER IN SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THAT SHOULD MOVE OVER THE JACKSON MS METRO AREA
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A 50+ KT WIND MAXIMUM CENTERED AT 700 MB. BEYOND
04Z...SHORT-TERM MODELS SUGGEST THE CURRENT SWATH OF PRECIPITATION
WILL SHIFT EWD INTO PORTIONS OF SRN/CNTRL AL WHILE WEAKENING...WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF LA/MS BY 06Z.

..GLEASON.. 02/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...SHV...

LAT...LON   31999266 32049317 32189361 32359340 32979226 33079133
            33088953 32998874 32788818 32498783 32078798 31908874
            31919161 31999266




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