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ACUS11 KWNS 111020
SPC MCD 111020

Mesoscale Discussion 0015
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0420 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

Areas affected...Central/Northeast KS

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation

Valid 111020Z - 111415Z

SUMMARY...A transition from rain to sleet/freezing rain to snow is
anticipated across much of the region over the next several hours.
Periodic heavy snow with snowfall rates around 1"/hr are possible
after transition to all snow occurs.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low about 20 miles
north of STJ (in far northwest MO) with a strong cold front
extending southwestward from the low across southeast KS to another
low in northwest OK. Strong low-level frontogenesis is contributing
to a broad area of precipitation over much of western and central
KS. Much of the precipitation over central KS is currently rain, but
strong low-level cold advection is expected to quickly cool the
850mb to surface layer. As this occurs, a transition to more mixed
precipitation, likely predominately sleet, is anticipated. This
mixed precipitation phase is not expected to last long (i.e. less
than 2 hours) as continued cold advection results in an eventual
transition to snow. After the transition to snow occurs, periodic
heavy snowfall (i.e. up to 1"/hr) is possible as strengthening
mid-level frontogenesis (attendant to the mid-level trough) augments

..Mosier.. 01/11/2018

...Please see for graphic product...


LAT...LON   37899998 38979915 39789773 39889554 39069553 37439770
            37029940 37169999 37899998 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.