Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 162130
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162129
NCZ000-SCZ000-162330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1719
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0429 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 162129Z - 162330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW MARGINALLY SVR THUNDERSTORMS MAY CROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CAROLINAS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT
BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE IN THE BASE OF BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CROSSING THE SRN
APPALACHIANS. DCVA IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE ENCOURAGED EARLIER
STORM DEVELOPMENT IN PROXIMITY TO A SFC FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE
OUTER BANKS TO WRN NC TO NRN GA. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WIDESPREAD INSOLATION AMIDST MIDDLE 60S SFC DEWPOINTS HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. AND...WITH 20-25 KT OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...A FEW SUSTAINED MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE ESEWD/SEWD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. A FEW ISOLATED INSTANCES OF DMGG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY
SVR HAIL CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT...THOUGH THE LACK OF STRONGER
BUOYANCY SHOULD PRECLUDE GREATER SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL.

..COHEN/HART.. 09/16/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   33517967 33408116 34168221 34878219 35948063 35597902
            34987812 34497829 33517967



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