Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 121936
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121936
SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-122130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1479
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Areas affected...far southern ND...central SD...central and western
NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 121936Z - 122130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Additional storms are forecast to intensify with an
accompanying hail/wind risk with the stronger storms.  A severe
watch will probably be considered for a large portion of this area.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic early this afternoon shows a cluster of
storms within a weak low-level warm air advection regime across the
central Dakotas.  Visible satellite imagery shows an agitated
cumulus field over central SD with the cumulus field extending south
into the NE Sandhills where it remains capped.  Surface streamline
analysis implies the greatest area of convergence is located over
central SD near the MO River and near the WY/NE border.

A mid-level low over the Bakken region of MT/ND will slowly meander
east this afternoon.  As the boundary layer continues to
heat/destabilize and convective inhibition erodes, the
aforementioned areas of convergence will be favored areas for storm
development/intensification and a hail/wind risk for the next
several hours.  Expecting activity to eventually move/develop
farther east in central NE later today with a risk for severe.

..Smith/Guyer.. 08/12/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON   41440372 42520368 46090071 46089915 45369822 43879845
            41600043 41030290 41440372




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