Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 200757
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200756
TXZ000-201030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0196
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Areas affected...East-central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 200756Z - 201030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Locally strong wind gusts remain possible through 09-10Z
with storm intensities expected to gradually weaken with eastward
extent into east-central Texas.

DISCUSSION...At 0730Z, mosaic radar imagery showed a bowing line of
storms extending from Limestone County to Burleson County with this
band of storms moving to the east-northeast at 45-50 kt.  The
MCS-related band of storms extended equatorward from Burleson
County, with this southern extension having slower movement.
Surface mesoanalyses indicated persistent pressure rises in the wake
of the bow with values of 3-4.5 mb/2-hour, while GRK WSR-88D
indicated a 45-50 kt westerly rear-inflow jet attendant to the
northern extent of the MCS thunderstorm line.  These factors would
tend to favor a continued east-northeast movement.  Forcing for
ascent attendant to a midlevel impulse tracking to the northeast
across east Texas overnight will support additional convective
development.  However, a more stable environment with eastward
extent should result in a gradual diminishing trend in storm
intensities as activity ingests less favorable surface-based
instability.

..Peters/Edwards.. 02/20/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   31429631 31639586 31869488 31349459 30789515 30679579
            30539630 30489644 31429631



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