Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 250142
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250141
ILZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-250245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0751
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0841 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHWEST IL TO FAR
WESTERN KY/TN AND NORTHEAST AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 205...

VALID 250141Z - 250245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 205 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...MAIN SEVERE/TORNADO RISK WITHIN TORNADO WATCH 205 SHOULD
REMAIN SEMI-FOCUSED ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL MO INTO
SOUTHWEST IL THROUGH MID-EVENING INCLUDING AREAS TO THE SOUTH/EAST
OF ST LOUIS. TORNADO WATCH 205 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z. EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT A TEMPORAL WATCH EXTENSION COULD BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE REGION BEYOND 03Z.

DISCUSSION...SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CONTINUE NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER ROUGHLY 30-50 MILES TO THE SOUTH OF THE ST LOUIS AREA AS 830
PM CDT/130Z. THESE ONGOING STORMS AND OTHERS IN THIS GENERAL
VICINITY...TO THE NORTHEAST OF NORTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING
CLUSTERS/BANDS CURRENTLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MO/WESTERN KY...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO POSE THE MAIN SEVERE/SOME TORNADO RISK ACROSS FAR
EAST-CENTRAL MO INTO SOUTHWEST IL. LOW-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BACKED MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...WITH A RELATED INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL SRH...WITH EFFECTIVE SRH ESTIMATED TO BE AT LEAST 200
M2/S2 BASED ON ADJUSTED ST LOUIS/PADUCAH WSR-88V VWP DATA. THIS
ENVIRONMENTAL SCENARIO SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME TORNADO
THREAT PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE 02Z-03Z TIME FRAME WHILE SOME
DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE PARTICULARLY WITH THE
MORE PRONOUNCED NORTHEASTWARD-BOWING SEGMENTS.

..GUYER.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...

LAT...LON   37479054 38609069 39149040 39428908 38598863 37668863
            34788879 34378903 34949008 36789020 37479054



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