Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
ACUS11 KWNS 242025
SPC MCD 242025
Mesoscale Discussion 0319
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017
Areas affected...Portions of the Arklatex northward to the Ozarks
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 242025Z - 242200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...An organizing band of thunderstorms across far eastern
Oklahoma may continue to strengthen through the evening, with an
attendant threat for damaging winds and perhaps a couple tornadoes.
Watch issuance is possible.
DISCUSSION...A relatively shallow, linearly forced band of
thunderstorms has developed across far eastern Oklahoma this
afternoon, in response to the eastward progression of a large upper
trough. Ahead of this line of convection, some clearing has occurred
over Arkansas, with temperatures rising into the lower/mid 70s.
While mixing has lowered surface dew points into the upper 50s in
spots, continued moist southerly flow should bring dew points back
into the lower 60s through the evening hours. Combined with modest
moistening/cooling aloft, this low-level environment may yield
MLCAPE upwards of 500-1000 J/kg by early/mid evening, with a
resultant uptick in convective intensity.
Meridional mid/upper flow and some backing of 850-700 mb flow
suggests primarily linear modes are expected, with bowing segments
generally developing to the north/northeast. Therefore, damaging
winds would be the primary threat where convection is rooted near/at
the surface. As a southerly 850-mb jet strengthens later this
evening, amplifying low-level shear may favor a couple of
line-embedded tornadoes; however, damaging winds would likely remain
the primary threat. Convective trends will be monitored for a
potential uptick in organization/intensity, which would necessitate
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 34989240 34039261 33069311 32679355 32839469 33099496
34229491 35479496 36829465 37329383 37309285 36009224