Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 291748
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291748
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-291945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0777
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND PARTS OF THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 291748Z - 291945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO NEAR
TCC...AND IN THE NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE NEAR BPC.  HAIL IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER ACTIVITY...AND TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
FOR A WATCH ISSUANCE THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES A FEW ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AREA...WITH A COUPLE OF AREAS OF INCREASING CUMULONIMBUS
ELSEWHERE IN THE DISCUSSION AREA /PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE.  THIS CONVECTION MAY BE TIED TO A WEAK MIDLEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRAVERSING THE AREA...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMICS FOR STRENGTHENING CONVECTION INCLUDING...

1/ STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE REGION AND WEAKENING
INHIBITION AND...
2/ STRONG INSTABILITY ALOFT DUE TO 9-9.5C H7-H5 LAPSE RATES.

ENVIRONMENTAL WIND FIELDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN THIS
AREA...ALTHOUGH 50-60 KNOT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE
VENTING ALOFT FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS.  GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY IN
PLACE AND RELATIVELY WEAK LOW- AND MID-LEVEL FLOW...HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.  CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY
EVENTUALLY BECOME UNDERCUT AS A COLD POOL CONTINUES TO ESTABLISH
ITSELF IN THE AREA DUE TO EARLIER ELEVATED AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
CONVECTION.

MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED THE INITIATION OF THIS CONVECTION
PARTICULARLY WELL...ALTHOUGH OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THIS
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES INDICATED IN
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES.  STORMS MAY CONGEAL WITH TIME AND MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...WHICH MAY NECESSITATE
A WW ISSUANCE.

..COOK/CORFIDI.. 05/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   33460321 33560356 34030389 34760403 35420385 36000334
            36630277 36790213 36850142 36630093 36120060 35690064
            35090054 34180083 33830172 33460321



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