


Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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196 ACUS11 KWNS 100127 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100126 SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-100300- Mesoscale Discussion 1623 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0826 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Areas affected...South-central ND...central SD...and north-central NE Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 498...500... Valid 100126Z - 100300Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 498, 500 continues. SUMMARY...Swaths of severe wind remain possible with multiple MCSs traversing the region tonight. Isolated large hail is also possible with the more discrete storms. DISCUSSION...Regional radar data shows two primary MCSs tracking eastward/southeastward across central SD/south-central ND and north-central NE tonight. The northern MCS has already produced a swath of measured severe wind gusts, with more isolated wind reports with the southern MCS over NE. As these systems continue east-southeastward, extremely unstable inflow (sampled by the modified ABR 00Z sounding), 30-40 kt of line-orthogonal effective shear, and a 30-kt low-level jet (per VWP data) should support the maintenance of these systems for at least the next couple hours. It is possible that both MCSs will peak in intensity during this time frame, before the boundary layer nocturnally cools. The primary concern will be swaths of severe wind gusts (some 75+ mph possible), though isolated large hail also remains possible with the more discrete storms evolving along trailing outflow boundaries. ..Weinman.. 07/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 45789993 46569991 46979960 46919872 46529809 45549789 43899803 42949831 42169876 41449955 41340017 41500089 41940110 42440074 43080005 44489998 45789993 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN