Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 271640
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271639
TXZ000-271745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0804
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...TX HILL COUNTRY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 271639Z - 271745Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ISOLATED SVR HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING STORM PERSISTENCE AND SEVERE
COVERAGE...CONFIDENCE IN THE NEED FOR A WW IS LOW AT THIS TIME BUT
TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

DISCUSSION...TSTM ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A WWD MOVING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOW DECAYING MCS PUSHING INTO THE WRN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS PUSHING INTO AN AIRMASS
CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S TO MID 80S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S. THESE WARM AND MOIST LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS
BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES SAMPLED BY THE 12Z DRT RAOB ARE SUPPORTING
MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J PER KG /PER LATEST MESOANALYSIS/. GIVEN
THE WEAKNESS IN THE WIND FIELD BETWEEN 800 AND 600 MB NOTED ON THE
DRT RAOB...A GENERALLY PULSE STORM MODE IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXISTS TO SUPPORT SOME SEVERE HAIL AND
WATER-LOADING WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

..MOSIER/MEAD.. 05/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30749931 30829889 30659803 30169743 29129702 28649774
            28649842 28789961 29350014 30160006 30559966 30749931



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