Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 120033
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120032
MIZ000-120630-

Mesoscale Discussion 0034
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0632 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

Areas affected...Portions of northern and central Lower Michigan

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation

Valid 120032Z - 120630Z

SUMMARY...Rain and snow will continue to transition to freezing rain
and sleet, possibly with snow mixed in at times tonight. Freezing
rain rates will generally be a couple hundredths a hour, for several
hours tonight.

DISCUSSION...Areas of rain and snow have begun to transition to
freezing rain and sleet across the MCD area, most recently noted at
CAD.  Low level cold advection behind a surface cold front will
allow temperatures to fall below freezing over the next few hours,
and wet-bulb temperatures near to below freezing have shifted
southward over the last hour per 00z mesoanalysis. RAP forecast
soundings indicate a warm layer between 850-700mb from about 0-2
degrees C with a sub-freezing layer below this about 1000-2000 ft
thick. This will support freezing rain and sleet across a relatively
narrow corridor across portions of northern/central Lower Michigan.
Hi-res guidance suggest this swatch of frozen precip will persist
and shift slightly southward with time through at least 06z. Some
areas may see a brief change to snow toward the end of the event as
stronger midlevel cold advection spreads over the area later
tonight, and before precipitation comes to an end.

..Leitman.. 01/12/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

LAT...LON   44318298 43738371 43458446 43178558 43108631 43238657
            43468662 43828668 44828443 44958359 44878326 44618294
            44318298




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