Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 112001
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112001
CAZ000-ORZ000-112100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1973
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0201 PM CST THU DEC 11 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE NRN CA COAST AND EXTREME SWRN ORE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 112001Z - 112100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO MAY ACCOMPANY INTENSIFYING
LOW-TOPPED STORMS AS THEY MOVE INLAND FROM THE COAST.

DISCUSSION...RADAR AND LIGHTNING TRENDS OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES
HAVE SHOWN AN INTENSIFICATION AND INCREASE AS CONVECTION MOVES NEWD
INVOF THE NRN CA COAST.  TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS ARE VERY STRONG AS
A BELT OF MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW MOVES NNEWD TO THE SE OF A
VIGOROUS BUT NOW WEAKENING DISTURBANCE NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
COLUMBIA RIVER.  SCANT BUOYANCY /AROUND 100-250 J PER KG MUCAPE/
WILL LIMIT STORM STRENGTH BUT A LOW POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR A
STRONGER STORM TO TRANSFER HIGHER MOMENTUM ALOFT TO THE SURFACE IN
THE FORM OF WIND GUSTS LIKELY RANGING 35-45 KT.

..SMITH/MEAD.. 12/11/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFR...EKA...

LAT...LON   40382446 41322414 42312382 42202331 41482335 39812340
            39472367 39982403 40382446




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