000
ACUS11 KWNS 170201
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170200
MNZ000-170330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1512
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0900 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Areas affected...Central MN

Concerning...Tornado Watch 454...

Valid 170200Z - 170330Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 454 continues.

SUMMARY...A marginal tornado risk continues across the northern part
of WW 454, though environmental trends suggest the overall
severe-weather threat is diminishing.

DISCUSSION...Trends in mosaic radar imagery showed a band of showers
with embedded thunderstorms continued to advance north from southern
into central MN where the air mass is more stable.  This would
suggest further waning of the severe-weather threat.  However, in
the short term (through around 03Z), low-level shear (effective SRH
200-300 m2/s2 per mesoanalysis) indicates low-level rotation is
still possible with sustained updrafts.  The tornado threat is
nonzero, though is expected to diminish further as the boundary
layer stabilizes.

..Peters.. 08/17/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...

LAT...LON   44679511 44959531 45429515 45459399 45299336 44889323
            44589329 44519364 44659417 44679511