Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 031948
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031948
MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-032145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0538
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 PM CDT TUE MAY 03 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...VA...SRN MD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 031948Z - 032145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS
OF CNTRL AND NRN VA EXTENDING INTO SRN MD. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. WW ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE
MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1006 MB LOW OVER CNTRL VA
WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SSWWD ACROSS WRN VA INTO WRN NC.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE SFC LOW AND ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF THE STORMS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 60S F. SFC TEMPS ARE APPROACHING 80 F WHICH IS RESULTING
IN WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS CNTRL VA. IN SPITE OF WEAK
INSTABILITY...SOME OF THE STRONGER MULTICELLS COULD APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS DUE TO MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT ON REGIONAL WSR-88D
VWPS. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD AID DOWNDRAFT DEVELOPMENT
AND MAKE MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS A POSSIBILITY. IN
ADDITION...500 MB TEMPS OF -14C TO -16C ALONG WITH CONTINUED
DESTABILIZATION COULD ALSO AID IN HAIL FORMATION WITH THE STRONGER
UPDRAFTS.

..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 05/03/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON   38337654 37677681 37117726 36827787 36807845 36877913
            37197967 37697943 39047782 38827689 38337654




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