000
ACUS11 KWNS 162029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162028
MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-170230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0195
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN WV INCLUDING THE
PANHANDLE...CENTRAL/NRN VA...MUCH OF MD...DC

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 162028Z - 170230Z

SUMMARY...SNOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH RATES OF ONE
INCH/HR DEVELOPING BY...AND ESPECIALLY BEYOND...02Z.

DISCUSSION...A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A DE-AMPLIFYING UPPER LOW
OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY. A DIFFUSE SFC LOW...CURRENTLY OVER NERN
MS...WILL MOVE INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY 02Z. RESULTING N/NE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT VERY DRY AIR INTO THE
DISCUSSION AREA...AND INITIALLY DRY LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL COOL/SATURATE WITH TIME ALLOWING FOR SNOW TO BECOME THE
DOMINANT P-TYPE...BECOMING WIDESPREAD DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS EVENING WITHIN CONFLUENT 700 MB
FLOW...WITH DEFORMATION-INDUCED FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WITHIN THE 800 MB TO 700 MB LAYER. MESOSCALE BANDING WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE INCH/HR BY...AND ESPECIALLY
BEYOND...02Z.

..BUNTING.. 03/16/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON   39128038 39517834 39517611 38917585 38287607 37887711
            37677889 37668001 37788053 38258095 39128038