Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
ACUS11 KWNS 221704
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221703
SCZ000-GAZ000-221900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1756
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE GA AND SC COASTAL PLAIN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 221703Z - 221900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THEY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. GUSTY
WINDS...A FEW STRONG...WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AHEAD OF THE SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE VALUES
ALREADY AT OR ABOVE 1000 J PER KG WERE NOTED IN 16Z MESOANALYSIS.
POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK TO MODERATE
SBCAPE AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 20-30 KT SHOULD LIMIT ORGANIZATION AND
LONGEVITY OF ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS. BUT...LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
PW VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES IN COMBINATION WITH ADEQUATE DCAPE COULD
ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONGER/MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY
WHERE STORM/OUTFLOW MERGERS OCCUR. GIVEN THE LACK OF SUPPORT FOR A
MORE WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED THREAT...A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

..LEITMAN/MEAD.. 09/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   31298124 31128157 31178232 31288266 31688307 31998304
            32258281 33028105 33248040 33397978 33337924 32897940
            32118046 31758083 31298124



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.