


Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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462 ACUS11 KWNS 031918 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031918 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-NDZ000-032145- Mesoscale Discussion 1550 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Areas affected...Central Minnesota...far northeast Iowa...and central/western Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 031918Z - 032145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong storms possible posing a threat for severe wind/hail possible this afternoon/evening DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery shows a remnant MCV traversing southern portions of North Dakota. Ahead of this feature, weak convection has persisted throughout the morning into the early afternoon. SPC mesoanalysis shows a destabilizing environment downstream of this ongoing activity, with MLCAPE values now exceeding 15000-2000 J/kg. Visible satellite supports this notion, particularly along a northwest to southeast oriented warm/moist axis (weak warm front) where dew point temperatures are nearing 65-70 F south of the boundary. The aforementioned MCV is aiding in enhancement of deep-layer shear, ranging from 30-40 kt, across the region. Continued insolation across the region should support further destabilization, which may lead to a re-intensification of the ongoing activity entering west-central Minnesota where MLCIN is relatively lower. Additional storm formation is also possible downstream (as supported by the latest HRRR runs) by late afternoon/evening. Isolated instances of severe wind/hail are possible should this occur. Watch issuance is not anticipated at this time, though convective trends will continue to be monitored. ..Karstens/Mosier.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FGF... ABR... LAT...LON 46519273 45959167 45089023 44018887 42978895 42398954 42199033 41989141 42179225 42789314 43709370 44689470 44919517 45119574 45419624 46019657 46729658 47309626 47369549 47129445 46519273 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN