000
ACUS11 KWNS 200000
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200000
TXZ000-200130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0372
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...TRANS-PECOS...PECOS VALLEY OF W TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 200000Z - 200130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LOCALIZED MCV WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL POSE A
NEAR-TERM RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AMIDST PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER INSTABILITY
WITH ERN EXTENT.

DISCUSSION...AN MCV CENTERED OVER SRN REEVES COUNTY WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS ARCING INTO NERN PRESIDIO COUNTY HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF
RADAR-ALGORITHM DERIVED LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH STORM-RELATIVE INBOUND
VELOCITIES UP TO AROUND 90 KT. ALTHOUGH DOWNSTREAM SURFACE DEW
POINTS HAVE MIXED INTO THE MID 40S AT KFST...THESE PROBABLE SEVERE
STORMS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THIS AREA WITHIN THE HOUR.

LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MINIMAL MLCAPE EXISTS E OF THE
PECOS RIVER. EVEN SO...STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AND ALREADY
ESTABLISHED STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION SUGGEST AT LEAST A MARGINAL
SEVERE RISK MAY EXTEND TO A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNSET...BEFORE
NOCTURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION FINALLY YIELD DISSIPATION OF
ROTATING UPDRAFTS.

..GRAMS/MEAD.. 04/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   31210373 31310367 31620261 31570203 31080131 30290112
            29710137 29010310 29090338 30090406 31210373