Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 150246
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150246
OKZ000-150415-

Mesoscale Discussion 1718
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0946 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Areas affected...Portions of western...central...and northeast OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 150246Z - 150415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal risk of severe hail and wind will continue into
the late evening. Watch issuance is not currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Strong thunderstorms have recently developed across
portions of western OK, with weaker convection developing in the
wake of a fast-moving cold front across northern OK. The strongest
storm across Washita County OK is currently located ahead of the
front and appears to have developed out of a midlevel ACCAS field.
MU CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg and effective shear of 30-40 kts will
continue to support occasionally organized storm structures capable
of marginally severe hail with the strongest cores. Relatively
strong low/mid-level flow will also support the potential for
localized severe wind gusts (as recently observed at KCSM), mainly
with convection that is ahead of, along, or just immediately behind
the surging cold front. With time, convection will become
increasingly undercut by the front, resulting in a decrease in storm
intensity later tonight.

..Dean/Guyer.. 10/15/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   35659967 36349896 36879747 36929656 36949530 36939477
            36419469 35889513 35469635 35229761 35059869 34969938
            35239978 35659967



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