385
ACUS11 KWNS 240525
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240525 COR
NCZ000-SCZ000-240715-

Mesoscale Discussion 1144
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Areas affected...Central North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 240525Z - 240715Z

CORRECTED TO CHANGE WSR-88D VWP REFERENCE TO ROANOKE, VIRGINIA

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated wind damage threat may develop across central
North Carolina over the few hours. However, the threat is expected
to remain marginal and weather watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows the remnants of Cindy moving
eastward across the southern and central Appalachians. A couple
bands of convection are ongoing across western Virginia extending
southward into western North Carolina. The airmass ahead of this
convection is very moist with surface dewpoints in the 70s F across
much of North Carolina which is resulting in a corridor of moderate
instability across the Piedmont of North Carolina. MLCAPE values are
estimated in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range from near the NC-SC
stateline extending northeastward into southeastern Virginia. In
addition, the WSR-88D VWP at Roanoke, VA shows a strong deep-layer
shear profile with 0-6 km shear of 50 to 55 kt and substantial speed
shear in the lowest 1km AGL. This appears representative of the
environment in central North Carolina and may support an isolated
wind damage threat as the line segment moves eastward into central
North Carolina over the next couple of hours. The latest CAM
solutions suggest that the line that is currently in west-central
North Carolina may persist for a couple more hours and then weaken.
This seems reasonable and weather watch issuance remains unlikely
due to the short duration that is expected for any wind damage
threat.

..Broyles/Dial.. 06/24/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   35007822 34747989 34798055 35228086 35988002 36407917
            36097801 35007822