000
ACUS11 KWNS 291931
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291930
NMZ000-AZZ000-292200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1744
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN/E-CNTRL AZ AND SWRN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 291930Z - 292200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...A LOBE OF VORTICITY SHEARED OFF FROM NOW POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE ROSLYN HAS MOVED NEWD ACROSS SERN AZ INTO E-CNTRL AZ/W-CNTRL
NM AS OF 1930Z. IN ITS WAKE...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD
REMAIN NEBULOUS/LIMITED ACROSS SERN/E-CNTRL AZ AND SWRN NM.
OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS AND WEAK ELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY
INITIATE SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE MCD AREA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME LOW-LEVEL
HEATING. SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 80S...AND ADDITIONAL HEATING INTO THE UPPER 80S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WITH
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.0-7.0 DEG
C/KM...AND SFC HEATING...MLCAPE HAS GENERALLY INCREASED INTO THE
500-1000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.

A BELT OF 25-35 KT SLY/SWLY MID-LEVEL WINDS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF
ERN AZ/WRN NM...AND A VEERING/STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT
IS CONTRIBUTING TO 30-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. THESE VALUES
WILL SUPPORT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
FORM...AND NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW
ACCELERATING CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS TO POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED
STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. SMALL HAIL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE LACK OF A MORE
OBVIOUS/STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING MECHANISM FOR ASCENT AND EVEN
GREATER INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
MARGINAL/ISOLATED...AND WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.

..GLEASON/HART.. 09/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON   31481176 32211180 33801090 34011017 34060947 33750902
            32850846 31750811 31250812 31231105 31481176