Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 280715
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280715
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-280915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1605
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN SD/SERN ND/WRN AND CENTRAL MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 280715Z - 280915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ELEVATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NEWD ACROSS NERN
SD INTO PARTS OF WRN AND CENTRAL MN AND POSSIBLY A PORTION OF SERN
ND.  MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A BAND OF ELEVATED STORMS OVER
NERN SD MOVING NEWD WITH TIME...WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET.  THE STORMS ARE
BEING FUELED BY MODERATE /AROUND 1500 J/KG/ CAPE ABOVE 850 MB...PER
THE 00Z ABR RAOB AND MODEL POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS.  WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL JET TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
CAPE...EXPECT STORMS TO SPREAD NEWD INTO MN AND LINGER THROUGH MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  GREATEST RISK FOR HAIL NEAR/IN EXCESS OF
ONE INCH IN DIAMETER WILL LIKELY...HOWEVER...OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...AS MODELS HINT THAT STRONGER MID-LEVEL WLYS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT E OF THE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ENEWD
ADVANCE OF THE PARENT UPPER SYSTEM NOW CROSSING WRN ONTARIO.

..GOSS/GRAMS.. 08/28/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON   45349849 45719806 46479639 46609419 45819311 44499360
            44449480 44619632 45089737 45349849




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