Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 010854
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010854
RIZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-011000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1263
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 AM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...LONG ISLAND / FAR SRN NY / CT / RI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 010854Z - 011000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LINE OF STORMS OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WILL MOVE NEWD
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CT AND POTENTIALLY YIELD AN ISOLATED
WIND-DAMAGE RISK AS THE SQUALL LINE ORGANIZES FURTHER.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC OVER THE PAST HOUR HAS SHOWN A
CONSOLIDATION OF LINE SEGMENTS INTO A LARGER-SCALE CONVECTIVE LINE
OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND AREAS S OF NYC.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED THIS MORNING.  THE
INCREASING LARGER-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STRENGTHENING
MID-TROPOSPHERIC SWLY FLOW --SAMPLED BY THE OKX VAD FROM 35 TO 55
KT-- OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE LINE LONGEVITY.
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WEDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E CHARACTERIZED BY
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S WITH MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS OVER LONG ISLAND
INTO MUCH OF CT.  TO THE N OVER MA...WARMER/MORE MOIST
BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR WILL PROBABLY NOT PENETRATE THE AREA AS THE
CONVECTIVE LINE WILL OUTRUN THE NWD ADVANCEMENT OF A SLOW-MOVING
WARM FRONT DRAPED OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND.  RELATIVELY DRIER AIR ABOVE
THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER MAY ACT TO ENHANCE OR REINFORCE WIND GUST
POTENTIAL.  AS A RESULT...STRONG TO SEVERE STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS
/GUSTS 40-60 MPH/ MAY YIELD ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE ACROSS SRN NEW
ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 07/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...

LAT...LON   41267389 41797354 42077292 42037210 41707162 41377143
            40977188 40507359 41267389




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