Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 180706
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180706
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-180900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1520
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Areas affected...the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into northwestern
Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 180706Z - 180900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will likely continue developing in the OK and TX
panhandles into northwest OK next few hours, and some storms could
produce a few instances of downburst winds and hail. Overall threat
does not appear sufficient for a WW.

DISCUSSION...Early this morning, elevated storms continue developing
over the TX and OK panhandles within a zone of isentropic ascent and
warm advection north of a quasistationary front. This corridor of
ascent is being fostered by a southerly low-level jet that has
increased to around 40 kt and will gradually veer to southwesterly
during the morning in association with a progressive, low-amplitude
shortwave trough. Effective-bulk shear is modest, but the
thermodynamic environment with 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE and 7.5-8 C/km
lapse rates in the 850-500 mb layer is sufficient for a few
instances of downburst winds and marginally severe hail next few
hours.

..Dial/Thompson.. 08/18/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   35719908 35720119 35430246 36050268 36820212 37010104
            35719908




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