Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 150756
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150755
KSZ000-151400-

Mesoscale Discussion 0048
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

Areas affected...west-central KS eastward into parts of central and
north-central KS

Concerning...Freezing rain

Valid 150755Z - 151400Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain rates exceeding 0.05 inch per 3 hours are
forecast to gradually develop northward through the discussion area
during the 08 UTC - 14 UTC period.  The heaviest 3-hourly rates
(0.10-0.20 inch) will likely be confined to south of I-70 and begin
to occur generally after 10 UTC.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic indicates a northward advancing shield of
moderate precipitation ---surface observations confirm hourly
freezing rain rates 0.05-0.20 inch--- moving across the northeastern
TX and OK Panhandles and eastward along the OK/KS border as of 0755
UTC.  The precipitation is occurring atop a shallow sub-freezing
near-surface layer ---reference the 00 UTC DDC raob--- and is in
response to increased forcing for ascent via low-level
warm-air-advection and moisture flux processes and related to the
approaching mid-level low/trough located over northwestern Mexico
and the Desert Southwest.

Short-term models suggest precipitation will expand northward into
the discussion area tonight into the early morning.  The locally
heavier rates will be associated with convective showers south of
I-70 with lighter freezing rain amounts associated within the
peripheral areas of the rain shield.  Forecast soundings show the
shallow cold wedge being maintained through 14 UTC and supportive of
a freezing-rain precipitation type.

..Smith.. 01/15/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39629667 39069624 38359643 37910063 38210107 38790110
            39290082 39839754 39629667



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