Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 181922
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181921
ALZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-LAZ000-182145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1717
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH NERN MS AND NWRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 181921Z - 182145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
TOO MARGINAL FOR A WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER NRN MS THIS
AFTERNOON PROMOTED BY A DESTABILIZING MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WEAK
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AS WELL AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDING A
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER ERN ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES
RISING THROUGH THE 80S AND 70F SFC DEWPOINTS ARE PROMOTING 1500-2000
J/KG MLCAPE IN WARM SECTOR. WHILE WINDS THROUGH THE LOWEST 2 KM ARE
WEAK...A MODEST MID LEVEL JET WITHIN BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROMOTING 30-40 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR...SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS TO
DEVELOP WEAK/TRANSIENT MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION. WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL...BUT A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AS
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.

..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 09/18/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   33469047 34168999 35018943 34908839 34448781 33548823
            32349001 32319090 32829107 33469047




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