Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 231340
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231340
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-231545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1984
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE/SWRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231340Z - 231545Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...GRADUAL INCREASE IN SEVERE RISK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGION AND FL PANHANDLE
VICINITY MAY EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT S CENTRAL/SERN U.S.
ATTM...WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD
OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGHING WHICH CONTINUES TO DIG ESEWD ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY REGION.  THE INLAND BOUNDARY-LAYER AIRMASS ACROSS GA
AND ERN AL SHOULD REMAIN COOL/STABLE -- REINFORCED BY A COLD AIR
DAMMING REGIME E/SE OF THE APPALACHIANS.  HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN FARTHER S AND W -- I.E. INTO THE CENTRAL AND ERN
GULF COASTAL REGION -- WILL CONTINUE...WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
DEWPOINTS SUPPORTING SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR FURTHER INCREASES IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY.

AS STORM COVERAGE EXPANDS...MIXED STORM MODES/CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION
SHOULD PREVAIL.  WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT
ROTATION ACROSS A BROAD AREA...RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL -- AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES -- WILL EXIST
WITH STRONGEST CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.  GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL...WW
ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.

..GOSS/EDWARDS.. 12/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...

LAT...LON   31198825 32348733 31138475 29958407 29138494 29268653
            29828861 31198825



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