Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 191837
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191836
NEZ000-KSZ000-192000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1563
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0136 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL KS...SERN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 191836Z - 192000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN NEB INTO PARTS OF KS. TRENDS
ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF ERN CO APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A RECENT INCREASE IN TSTM INTENSITY ACROSS N-CNTRL
KS. RECENT SFC OBS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG OR IN THE WAKE OF
A SW-NE ORIENTED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SWRN KS INTO SERN NEB.
STRONG HEATING S/E OF THE COLD FRONT...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
LOW 80S TO NEAR 90 F...IS ALLOWING FOR MODERATE DESTABILIZATION TO
OCCUR WITH MLCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HRS...AND THE AIR MASS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION AS INHIBITION WEAKENS. DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...WITH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT LAGGING THE
SWD MOVING COLD FRONT...BUT A FEW ORGANIZED CLUSTERS COULD
MATERIALIZE AND POTENTIALLY EVOLVE INTO AN EWD MOVING LINE THIS
EVENING. STRONG TO LOCALLY DMGG WINDS AND SOME INSTANCES OF LARGE
HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

..ROGERS/THOMPSON.. 08/19/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   40779589 39639570 38579612 38209728 38259862 38799913
            39709921 40469811 41039689 40779589




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