Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 190718
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190717
TXZ000-190915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0774
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Areas affected...Southwest Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 190717Z - 190915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and perhaps
wind damage are expected to form by 8-9Z across southwest Texas.

DISCUSSION...Southeasterly surface to 850 mb flow is helping a
dryline to retreat northwestward to near the Big Spring to
Midland/Odessa area. Storms are now beginning to form, and this
trend should persist, with an eventual storm complex oriented
southwest-northeast but with embedded supercells. Ample instability
with increasing moisture and favorable lapse rates aloft and long
hodographs should favor some long lived storms capable of mainly
large damaging hail. With time, storms may evolve into an MCS driven
by outflow and continuing into northwest TX this morning.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 05/19/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   31470367 32040231 32910042 33019983 32929946 32639915
            32389901 31830023 31540173 31330264 31220329 31220358
            31280369 31470367




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