Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 182326
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182326
NYZ000-PAZ000-190200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1926
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0526 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL AREAS OF LAKE ERIE IN WRN NY

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 182326Z - 190200Z

SUMMARY...VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL
PROBABLY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...RADAR LOOP OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS SHOW LITTLE
OVERALL MOVEMENT IN AN INTENSE SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BAND DOWN THE AXIS
OF LAKE ERIE INTO THE ERN SHORES OF LAKE ERIE IN WRN NY.  SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE
SURROUNDING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 8-9 DEG C PER KM RANGE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.  LIGHTNING FLASHES HAVE BEEN NOTED RECENTLY TO THE
ESE OF BUF.

AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS --CURRENTLY UPSTREAM OVER SWRN
ONTARIO-- PIVOTS THROUGH THE AREA...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IN THE
SNOWFALL RATES IS EXPECTED.  MODELS VARY SOME REGARDING THE VEERING
OF THE FLOW TO A MORE WLY COMPONENT IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM...BUT ONCE
THIS OCCURS...A SLIGHT SWD SHIFT IN THE VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES
NEAR BUF MAY SHIFT INTO MORE OF CHAUTAUQUA AND CNTRL AND SRN
PORTIONS OF ERIE COUNTY.

..SMITH.. 11/18/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CLE...

LAT...LON   42837888 42907855 42667842 42487873 42207954 42277978
            42477967 42837888




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