Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 202200
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202200
MIZ000-210000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1743
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0500 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 202200Z - 210000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR SOME RISK FOR DMGG WIND
GUSTS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS COULD
REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED AT THE LEADING EDGE
OF STRONGER DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT CROSSING THE AREA PER RECENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. CLOUD COVERAGE IN MANY AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY HAS STUNTED DIURNAL GAINS IN BUOYANCY...THOUGH POCKETS OF
INSOLATION HAVE LOCALLY STEEPENED LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT
THE RECENT UPTICK IN CONVECTION APPROACHING THE THUMB OF MICHIGAN.
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE...AND 40 KT OF 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR
SAMPLED BY THE DTX VWP...FORWARD-PROPAGATING MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH
AT LEAST ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE LACK OF
STRONGER BUOYANCY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A MORE WIDESPREAD SVR-TSTM
RISK FROM EVOLVING...THOUGH THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
FOR WW ISSUANCE.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 09/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR...

LAT...LON   42888459 43948329 43788270 42968250 42358354 42508453
            42888459



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