Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
ACUS11 KWNS 012004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012003
NEZ000-012030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1575
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NEB PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 012003Z - 012030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUST AND PERHAPS HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.

DISCUSSION...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A
RESIDUAL/DECAYING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM NERN KS ARCING NWWD
INTO SWRN NEB AND THE PANHANDLE.  ANOTHER COLD POOL SURGE --OWING
ITS ORIGINS TO WEAKENED CONVECTION OVER CNTRL-ERN NEB-- WILL MOVE
INTO THE ERN PORTION OF THE NEB PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OVER THE PAST HOUR...AN AGITATED CU FIELD WITH EMBEDDED DEVELOPING
STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CNTRL NEB PANHANDLE.

AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND THE PROXIMITY TO STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OVER ERN WY/NERN CO HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE BUOYANCY
ON THE WRN EDGE OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /MID 50S TO LOWER 60S
DEWPOINTS/.  THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
DAKOTAS AND HEATING WILL PROBABLY PROMOTE ADDITIONAL STORMS AND LEAD
TO SOME STORM INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AROUND 30 KT MAY SUPPORT SOME STORMS TO ATTAIN ORGANIZED
CHARACTERISTICS AND A LOCALIZED WIND/HAIL THREAT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.  THE PERCEIVED ISOLD NATURE/MAGNITUDE OF THE POTENTIAL
STRONG/SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH ISSUANCE.

..SMITH/HART.. 08/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...

LAT...LON   41830379 42210366 42140245 41710166 41170210 41200294
            41830379



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.