Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 232015
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232015
TXZ000-NMZ000-232245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1136
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0315 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Areas affected...Portions of central/southern NM into west TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 232015Z - 232245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal wind/hail threat should persist through this
evening. Due to the very isolated severe risk, watch issuance is not
expected at this time.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have formed along a shallow cold
front across southeastern NM into west TX this afternoon. Additional
isolated convection may develop along the central mountain chain in
NM within a forced upslope/easterly low-level flow regime. Modest
northwesterly flow around 500 mb of 20-25 kt will likely act to
limit updraft organization and overall storm motions. But, a
strongly veering wind profile with height in the vicinity of the
cold front per recent LBB VWP is supporting generally 30-40 kt of
effective bulk shear. With steep mid-level lapse rates and MLCAPE of
500-1500 J/kg present across this region, the strongest
thunderstorms may pose a very isolated large hail risk, in addition
to some threat for strong to locally damaging downdraft winds. Due
to overall thunderstorm coverage expected to remain generally
isolated, and marginal low/mid-level winds forecast to remain over
this region through this evening, watch issuance is not anticipated.

..Gleason/Guyer.. 06/23/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   32960003 32160078 31940169 31840343 31820492 32330566
            32740589 34230615 35130608 36090584 36330551 36320496
            36020453 35740450 34980456 33960437 33550330 33440266
            33490088 33540003 32960003




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