Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 281904
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281904
TXZ000-282000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0824
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTH AND CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 281904Z - 282000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH AND CNTRL TX
THIS AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS SOUTH AND CNTRL TX /GENERALLY E
OF THE HILL COUNTRY/ HAVE GRADUALLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 1-2
HRS WITHIN A PLUME OF RICH GULF MOISTURE. THIS AREA IS SITUATED
ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF EML PLUME SITUATED OVER WRN/CNTRL PARTS OF
TX...AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE
VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS
SUPPORTIVE FOR PULSE TO BRIEFLY MULTICELL CONVECTIVE MODES...WITH
THE PRIMARY THREAT LIKELY BEING STRONG TO LOCALLY/MARGINALLY SVR
WIND GUSTS. LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND MODERATE DIRECTIONAL LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
WITH S-SELY SFC WINDS TURNING TO SLY ABOVE 1 KM COULD ALSO SUPPORT A
BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO. BOTH OF THESE THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MARGINAL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.

..ROGERS/GOSS.. 05/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   31879645 29989593 28239759 27729850 28279904 30819821
            31959766 32239699 31879645



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