Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 271906
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271905
OKZ000-TXZ000-272130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1626
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 271905Z - 272130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SVR WIND
GUSTS...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS NOT NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...WITHIN A MOIST AND UNCAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER...ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A STEEP SFC-3-KM LAPSE RATE PLUME EXTENDING FROM THE TX
S PLAINS TO CNTRL OK. THE OVERLAP OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM LAPSE RATES IN
THIS LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS PREDOMINANTLY IN THE 60S IS YIELDING
1500-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE PER MODIFICATIONS TO 12Z OUN/AMA RAOBS.
WATER VAPOR LOOPS IMPLY A STREAM OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
EMANATING FROM THE SW...WHICH WILL ENHANCE SHELTERING OF INCIPIENT
UPDRAFTS. FURTHERMORE...CONTINUED DIURNAL HEATING WILL BOLSTER
BAROCLINICITY ALONG EDGES OF PATCHY CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG
WITH BUOYANCY...TO SUPPORT AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE/INTENSITY. HOWEVER...VWPS SUGGEST GENERALLY AOB 20 KT OF
FLOW IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE...WHICH WILL SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...WITH A PRIMARILY PULSE CONVECTIVE MODE
ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE SVR RISK.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 08/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   33850088 33780166 34370174 35500111 36699942 36389877
            35659897 34789958 33850088



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