Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 281645
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281645
TXZ000-NMZ000-281815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0822
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...TX SOUTH PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN...NORTHWEST
TX...FAR SERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 281645Z - 281815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL....DMGG WIND GUSTS...AND A
COUPLE TORNADOES WILL INCREASE FROM SERN NM EWD ACROSS THE TX S
PLAINS INTO W-CNTRL TX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED BEFORE 18Z.

DISCUSSION...ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED GENERALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF LUBBOCK THIS MORNING...WITH A SEPARATE WEAKER AREA OF
CONVECTION NEAR MIDLAND. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A LOBE OF ASCENT ACCOMPANYING AN UPPER IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE
TX/OK PANHANDLES. A COMPLEX SFC PATTERN IS IN PLACE AS A RESULT OF
EARLIER/ONGOING CONVECTION...FEATURING A DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ANALYZED NEAR I-20...AND A MORE RECENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SWD
FROM THE SWRN TX PANHANDLE TO S OF SPS.

VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /SAMPLED IN 12Z MAF SOUNDING/
COMBINED WITH RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE YIELDING WIDESPREAD MLCAPE
VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG...BUT WEAK CAPPING IS STILL LIKELY IN
PLACE...WITH CONVECTION REMAINING ELEVATED UNTIL TEMPERATURES REACH
THE UPPER-70S F. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND COULD INCLUDE A FEW SUPERCELLS
WITH A LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND THREAT. ACCOMPANYING TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AS CONVECTION BECOMES SFC-BASED. A WW WILL PROBABLY BE
ISSUED BEFORE 18Z.

..ROGERS/GOSS.. 05/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   32129951 33789927 34009925 34230053 33900180 33490415
            32570481 31800456 31650292 31810183 31950051 32129951



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