Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 250442
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250441
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-250615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1612
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IA...SERN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 250441Z - 250615Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NRN IA INTO SERN MN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS CURRENTLY RESIDES
ACROSS MUCH OF SWRN-NCNTRL IA WHERE 3000+ J/KG MUCAPE CURRENTLY
RESIDES.  WHILE SFC BASED PARCELS MAY NOT BE CONTRIBUTING TO RECENT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...PARCELS WITHIN 1KM OF SFC ARE LIKELY
FEEDING UPDRAFTS ALONG WEAK WIND SHIFT FROM NEAR DNS...NEWD TO SOUTH
OF RST IN SERN MN.  LARGE HAIL LIKELY ACCOMPANIES THE STRONGEST
UPDRAFTS...PER WDSSII...OVER HUMBOLDT COUNTY IA AND SUFFICIENT SWLY
DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS PRESENT FOR THIS DEVELOPING LINE TO REMAIN
ORGANIZED AS IT SPREADS DOWNSTREAM.  AT THIS TIME THE GREATEST
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL BUT AN OTHERWISE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE BAND MAY ULTIMATELY PROGRESS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NRN
IA TOWARD SWRN WI OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

..DARROW/THOMPSON.. 08/25/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON   42469502 43959216 43419111 41799405 42469502




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