Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
000
ACUS11 KWNS 140225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140224
TXZ000-140400-

Mesoscale Discussion 0177
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0824 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

Areas affected...portions of south-central and central TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 140224Z - 140400Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Transient rotation may occur with the stronger updrafts
this evening as storms continue to develop/intensify.  A low-tiered
risk for a severe thunderstorm and other strong thunderstorms is
expected to increase over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic at 0220 UTC shows a north-south band of
quasi-discrete thunderstorms from 30 mi south of HDO to 25 mi north
of JCT.  This activity has developed during the past 1-2 hours in
the vicinity of a stationary front.  As mid- to upper-level forcing
for ascent continues to increase as the upper low near El Paso
approaches, a capping inversion noted on the 00 UTC DRT and CRP
raobs will likely erode further and support a risk for prolonged
thunderstorm activity across the discussion area.  Strong shear
profiles coupled with weak buoyancy will probably foster an
environment capable of several intermittent strong thunderstorms and
perhaps a localized-severe risk with the most intense cores.  The
overall severe risk will be tempered in part by weak
buoyancy/diurnal heat loss.

..Smith/Grams.. 02/14/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   28739950 31319977 31689876 31019832 30319902 28679918
            28739950




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.