Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 140225
SPC MCD 140224

Mesoscale Discussion 0177
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0824 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

Areas affected...portions of south-central and central TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 140224Z - 140400Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Transient rotation may occur with the stronger updrafts
this evening as storms continue to develop/intensify.  A low-tiered
risk for a severe thunderstorm and other strong thunderstorms is
expected to increase over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic at 0220 UTC shows a north-south band of
quasi-discrete thunderstorms from 30 mi south of HDO to 25 mi north
of JCT.  This activity has developed during the past 1-2 hours in
the vicinity of a stationary front.  As mid- to upper-level forcing
for ascent continues to increase as the upper low near El Paso
approaches, a capping inversion noted on the 00 UTC DRT and CRP
raobs will likely erode further and support a risk for prolonged
thunderstorm activity across the discussion area.  Strong shear
profiles coupled with weak buoyancy will probably foster an
environment capable of several intermittent strong thunderstorms and
perhaps a localized-severe risk with the most intense cores.  The
overall severe risk will be tempered in part by weak
buoyancy/diurnal heat loss.

..Smith/Grams.. 02/14/2017

...Please see for graphic product...


LAT...LON   28739950 31319977 31689876 31019832 30319902 28679918
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