Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 221845
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221844
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-222045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1730
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS...CNTRL/NRN AL...FAR WRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 221844Z - 222045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT MAKES WW
ISSUANCE UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...AT 1840Z...SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS
PARTS OF CNTRL/NRN AL INTO FAR WRN GA...WHERE STRONG HEATING HAS
ALLOWED MODERATE BUOYANCY TO DEVELOP...WITH THE MOST RECENT
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWING MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA.
IN ADDITION...A BELT OF MODESTLY ENHANCED MIDLEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH A VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER AR IS RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF
25-35 KTS...SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES.
WHILE MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TEND
TO LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT...A FEW WEAK SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING
SEGMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.

FURTHER WEST ACROSS NRN MS...LINGERING CLOUDINESS HAS DELAYED
DESTABILIZATION AND SFC-BASED INITIATION...BUT CONTINUED HEATING
THROUGH THE DAY COMBINED WITH INCREASING ASCENT AHEAD OF THE VORT
MAX ACROSS ARKANSAS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENTAL EVOLUTION IS EXPECTED
AS WAS DESCRIBED ABOVE ACROSS AL...WITH A THREAT FOR A FEW WEAK
SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.

DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE/COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE
THREAT...WW ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

..DEAN/CORFIDI.. 08/22/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   32468472 32728646 33068884 33129003 33359084 33819084
            34219061 34549032 34859004 34958870 34918724 34898662
            34638587 34128528 32468472




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