Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 242021
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242021
WVZ000-OHZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-242215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1996
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN KY...WRN WV...AND SRN/CNTRL OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 242021Z - 242215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS IT DEVELOPS EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DISCUSSION...PER 19Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS...HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH ARE LENDING BROAD SUPPORT FOR
ASCENT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. RECENT SFC ANALYSIS
INDICATES A CENTER OF LOW PRES NEAR FDY...WITH A LOW-TOPPED BROKEN
SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING FARTHER TO ITS SOUTH ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. AS
OF 1915Z...THESE CELLS WERE GENERALLY ON A HAO-LEX-SME LINE...WITH
PRES FALLS OF 2-4 MB PER 2 HR ANALYZED AHEAD OF THE LINE.

CURRENTLY...BUOYANCY IS MEAGER WITH MUCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF
100-250 J/KG. THIS IS EVIDENT PER THE OVERALL LACK OF OBSERVED
LIGHTNING...AS WELL AS DUAL-POLARIZATION DATA INDICATIVE OF A
RELATIVE LACK OF MIXED-PHASE REGION ABOVE THE MELTING LAYER IN THE
STRONGER CELLS OF THE LINE. NONETHELESS...A FEW POCKETS OF STRONGER
INSOLATION DUE TO BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WILL WORK IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE STRONG SUPPORT FOR ASCENT TO AID IN SOME INCREASE IN DEEPER
CONVECTION. FURTHERMORE...INCREASING BACKGROUND FLOW WILL PROVIDE
AMPLE MOMENTUM FOR TRANSFER TO THE SFC IN ANY STRONGER CELLS. 1950Z
VWP DATA FROM LOCAL WSR-88DS INDICATE AROUND 50 KTS OF SSW FLOW
AROUND 1 KM AGL. INDEED...KSME REPORTED A GUST TO 53 KTS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE LINE AT 1915Z. THEREFORE...WHILE CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY REMAIN RELATIVELY SHALLOW...MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF THE STRONG
WIND FIELD ABOVE THE SFC WILL SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AS THIS SQUALL LINE DEVELOPS EWD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

..PICCA/CORFIDI.. 12/24/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...MRX...JKL...ILN...

LAT...LON   37708327 38618383 39678399 40528385 40928347 41458263
            41588131 41328070 40108072 39198065 38568077 37408195
            37138258 37708327



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