Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 200716
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200715
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-200845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1584
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST KY AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN OH TO WESTERN WV

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 200715Z - 200845Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUST RISK MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR
AN ADDITIONAL HOUR OR TWO OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN OH/FAR NORTHEAST
KY/WESTERN WV. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER RISK SHOULD
REMAIN MARGINAL.

DISCUSSION...FOCUSED ALONG COMPOSITE OUTFLOW...A WELL-ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE LINE WILL CONTINUE AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL OH/NORTHEAST KY TO WESTERN WV OVERNIGHT...WITH OTHER
SCATTERED/LESS-ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN OH.
EARLIER...MEASURED WIND GUSTS OF 36 KT/39 KT WERE NOTED AT HAMILTON
AIRPORT /KHAO/ AND CINCINNATI-COVINGTON /KCVG/ RESPECTIVELY.
SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS AND UPSTREAM WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM
INDIANAPOLIS SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST A WEAK MCV MAY BE INFLUENCING THE
QUASI-LINEAR ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN OH. EVEN WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED POSSIBLE...A RELATIVELY COOL/INCREASINGLY
STABLE BOUNDARY WILL TEND TO PRECLUDE SEVERE-CALIBER WIND SPEEDS
FROM REACHING THE SURFACE.

..GUYER/CARBIN.. 08/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON   38348395 39478374 39738243 39748142 39348115 38398190
            38268283 38348395



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