Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 032232
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032232
GAZ000-FLZ000-040000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0090
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0432 PM CST WED FEB 03 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN GA AND NRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 032232Z - 040000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS CROSSING PARTS OF SRN GA AND NRN FL MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED STRONG/DMGG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WW ISSUANCE
IS NOT NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...A BAND OF TSTMS FROM S-CNTRL GA TO THE CNTRL FL
PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EWD INTO MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F. THIS
IS SUPPORTING MLCAPE AROUND 250-1000 J/KG...THOUGH POOR MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES SAMPLED BY EARLIER 12Z RAOBS WILL TEND TO TEMPER
CONVECTIVE-SCALE UPWARD ACCELERATIONS. VWP DATA AT VAX SUGGEST DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW ORIENTED LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE CONVECTIVE
BAND...WHICH WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH INCIPIENT
CONVECTION BECOMING QUICKLY UNDERCUT. NEVERTHELESS...STRONG DEEP
SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50-70 KT MAY SUPPORT BRIEF CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION...WITH LOCALIZED STRONG TO DMGG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE
WITH THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION. THE AFOREMENTIONED POOR MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES...CONVECTIVE-BAND-PARALLEL FLOW...AND APPROACHING
NIGHTFALL WITH ASSOCIATED GAINS IN BOUNDARY-LAYER STATIC STABILITY
WILL ALL CURTAIL THE DURATION AND MAGNITUDE OF THE SVR-TSTM RISK.

..COHEN/EDWARDS.. 02/03/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   30248510 31488338 31488255 31138228 30748253 30438295
            30158369 29978499 30248510



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