000
ACUS11 KWNS 220040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220039
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-220245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0764
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL - NERN LA / CNTRL MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 220039Z - 220245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL PROBABLY MOVE INTO
NERN LA AND CNTRL MS BY THE MID-LATE EVENING.  ADDITIONAL
STRONG-SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE FARTHER SW OVER CNTRL LA.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE SEGMENTED
INTO SEVERAL QLCS INTERCONNECTED BY A MODIFYING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
LOCATED FROM THE SRN EXTENSION OF THE NRN MS QLCS WWD TO THE SRN
AR/NWRN LA QLCS.  ALTHOUGH SOME SLIGHT SURFACE COOLING WILL OCCUR
PRIOR TO THE APPROACH OF THE QLCS FROM THE NW...THE 00Z/22 JAN RAOB
EXHIBITED A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR /25-30 KT/ SUPPORTIVE OF A LINEAR MCS.  RECENT KSHV VWP
DATA SHOW A 40-45 KT REAR INFLOW JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE QLCS AND A
35 KT GUST WAS OBSERVED AT KSHV.  AS A RESULT...A CONTINUATION OF A
35-50 KT WIND GUST THREAT CAPABLE OF POCKETS OF WIND DAMAGE WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

..SMITH/CORFIDI.. 05/22/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   33548896 33398845 33018819 32558835 30389326 30629355
            31029356 31399341 32509186 33548896