Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 291729
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291728
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-291930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1436
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN MO...CENTRAL/NRN AR...EXTREME
E-CENTRAL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 291728Z - 291930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS. A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
SEVERE RISK.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING/INTENSIFYING
ALONG A COMPOSITE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL MO
SOUTH/WEST ACROSS NORTHWEST AR AND INTO SOUTHERN OK AT 1720Z. TO THE
EAST OF THIS FRONT...STRONG DIURNAL HEATING OF A MOIST /MID-UPPER
70S SURFACE DEW POINTS/ AIR MASS HAS RESULTED IN STRONG
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY /MLCAPE ABOVE 2500 J/KG/ AND NEGLIGIBLE
CINH. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS FRONTAL FORCING AND A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATION OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN OK PROVIDE MODEST ASCENT.
RELATIVELY WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL RESULT IN EFFECTIVE
SHEAR VALUES AT OR BELOW 25 KTS...HOWEVER DEEP MOISTURE RESULTING IN
PW VALUES OF 1.75 TO 2 INCHES SUGGESTS THAT DOWNDRAFT WATER LOADING
IN THE STRONGER STORMS MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS.

WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS...A WATCH IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

..BUNTING/KERR.. 07/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   34039368 34429495 35419467 36099408 36389383 36579363
            36749346 36969323 36959309 36959276 36889211 36459119
            35769110 35079100 34519141 33969209 34039368




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