Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 292233
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292232
AZZ000-300000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1235
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0532 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 292232Z - 300000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL POSE A LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUST THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE
ISOLATED AND SPORADIC NATURE OF THE THREAT...A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED
UNLESS SIGNS OF BETTER ORGANIZATION TOWARD A FORWARD PROPAGATING
STORM CLUSTER HAPPENS TO OCCUR.

DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL TRACK TOWARD THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
AS THEY MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARD THE LOWER DESERTS.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 25-30 KT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO
BRIEF...VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...BUT LACK OF STRONGER FORCING AND MORE
MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENT WILL LIMIT
LONGEVITY/ORGANIZATION. THESE STORMS MOVING OFF THE RIM...ALONG WITH
MORE ISOLATED CELLS BETWEEN PHX AND TUS...WILL POSE A STRONG WIND
RISK GIVEN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH A DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER...AS EVIDENT IN 12Z REGIONAL RAOBS AND 22Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
STRONG OUTFLOWS FROM THESE STORMS MAY ALSO LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST. GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT A WATCH IS NOT
EXPECTED...UNLESS BETTER ORGANIZATION THROUGH STORM
MERGERS/INTERACTIONS LEADS TO FORWARD PROPAGATING STORM CLUSTER.

..LEITMAN/CORFIDI.. 06/29/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

LAT...LON   32661334 33331342 33761343 34341334 34791292 34911236
            34851155 34371096 33981062 33091038 32511063 32071101
            31781142 31651196 31881261 32021297 32661334




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