Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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431
ACUS11 KWNS 060122
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060121
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-060315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1870
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0721 PM CST MON DEC 05 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE AND NORTH
FL...SOUTHERN GA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 515

VALID 060121Z - 060315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 515 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REMAINING VALID COUNTIES IN TORNADO WATCH 515.
A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CURRENT WATCH AREA AND EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA
AND EXTREME SOUTHERN GEORGIA.

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL SHORT-LIVED BOWING SEGMENTS WITH LOW-LEVEL
ROTATION HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR DESTIN...FL EAST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN GA AS OF 01Z.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
A WEAK MESOLOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT NEAR DESTIN. IN THE
SHORT TERM...BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AND PERHAPS
A TORNADO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST GA EAST OF THE MESOLOW WHERE VWP DATA AND SHORT-TERM
GUIDANCE SUGGEST EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE.

BEYOND 02Z...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
FL PANHANDLE NORTHWARD INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN GA MAY ALLOW THE
FRONT/MODEST SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD
OVER SOUTHERN GA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 06Z FROM THE LATEST RAP
GUIDANCE SHOW CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND EFFECTIVE SRH OF
300-400 M2/S2 IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN GA.  AS
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH INCREASES OVER
THE DISCUSSION AREA...SOME INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME.  GIVEN
THESE TRENDS...A NEW TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY THAT WILL INCLUDE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF WW 515 EAST ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH-CENTRAL GA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH FL.

..BUNTING.. 12/06/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON   30008267 29668421 29558519 29698564 30268615 30858627
            31288614 31558540 31838438 32048392 32128292 32048233
            30918209 30008267




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