Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 301646
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301646
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-301845-
Mesoscale Discussion 1523
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025
Areas affected...eastern/southern Lower MI to northeast IN and
northwest OH
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 301646Z - 301845Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A broken line of thunderstorms may pose a risk for
localized damaging winds and small hail through late afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Along a weak cold front, a broken line of thunderstorms
is bisecting Lower MI into far northern IN. Airmass immediately
downstream has warmed into the low to mid 80s, with heating slowed
farther east in the wake of an MCV over north-central/northeast OH.
Moist low-levels amid weak mid/upper-level rates, combined with
generally weak to modest low/mid-level shear, should serve to
mitigate the overall severe threat. Small hail production is
possible with some speed shear in the upper portion of the buoyancy
profile. Locally strong gusts in wet microbursts should be the main
hazard, but that will likely be modulated by the sub-optimal
thermodynamic environment.
..Grams/Hart.. 06/30/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...
LAT...LON 42898235 41418339 40958489 41128589 41538595 42998463
44028407 44798361 44928319 44408262 42898235
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH