Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 212244
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212243
NEZ000-KSZ000-220045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1597
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0543 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN KS INTO SRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 212243Z - 220045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH EVENING BUT THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN DISORGANIZED.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A CONCENTRATED AREA OF TCU AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM CNTRL INTO NRN KS WITHIN A ZONE OF ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. STRONG HEATING HAS ERODED
CIN...AND A STRENGTHENING SLY LOW-LEVEL JET BODES WELL FOR CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AS CIN WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE DUE TO A
RATHER DEEPLY-MIXED AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.

THIS ACTIVITY IS BENEATH MODEST WESTERLIES ALOFT...WITH CELLS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WITH A NEWD COMPONENT. LOCALIZED
SEVERE WIND AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT COVERAGE PERHAPS TOO
SPARSE FOR A WATCH.

..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 08/21/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39109991 40169937 40799809 40939689 40659650 40229662
            39299807 38609952 38639982 38749990 39109991




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