000
ACUS11 KWNS 010842
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010842
MOZ000-ARZ000-011145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0108
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 AM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL AR / S-CNTRL AND SERN MO

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 010842Z - 011145Z

SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN RATES 0.05-0.10 INCH PER 3 HOURS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z ACROSS N-CNTRL AR INTO PORTIONS OF SERN MO.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE OZARK
PLATEAU AND MOVING NEWD TO TOWARDS THE MS-OH RIVER CONFLUENCE WITHIN
A WARM CONVEYER.  GPS DATA AND SATELLITE-DERIVED DATA SHOW PW IN
EXCESS OF 0.75 INCH OVER THE REGION TO THE N OF A STATIONARY SURFACE
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY EXTENDING INTO THE TN
VALLEY.  SURFACE TEMPS GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 27-32 DEG F RANGE AND
INDICATE A SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING NEAR-SURFACE LAYER BENEATH A MELTING
LAYER WHICH FAVORS FREEZING RAIN P-TYPE.  MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
ANOTHER FEW HOURS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION
AND FREEZING RAIN RATES OF 0.05-0.10 INCH PER 3 HOURS ARE PROBABLE
THROUGH 12Z.

..SMITH.. 03/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   36399309 37479123 37539025 37068945 36269102 35639177
            36399309