Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 022343
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022343
VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-030115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1667
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0643 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NE PENNSYLVANIA...PARTS OF ERN NEW YORK STATE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 489...

VALID 022343Z - 030115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 489
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A NEW SEVERE WEATHER WATCH MAY NOT BE REQUIRED...BUT THIS
WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE RESULTS OF COORDINATION/COLLABORATION
WITH IMPACTED LOCAL WFOS.

DISCUSSION...AREA OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION NOW SPREADING TOWARD THE
CATSKILL AND POCONO MOUNTAINS REGION STILL APPEARS SUPPORTED BY
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE GRADUALLY
ACCELERATING NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY.  HOWEVER...WDSS-II CAPPI DATA SUGGEST THAT STORMS
HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND
NEAR SURFACE INFLOW...IF ANYTHING...SHOULD BECOME PROGRESSIVELY
WEAKER AS ACTIVITY ADVANCES TOWARD THE HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
THROUGH 02-04Z.  PEAK SURFACE GUSTS AT OBSERVED SITES HAVE BEEN
MOSTLY AROUND 35 KTS.  ALTHOUGH THIS MAY STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALIZED DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES AS LONG AS
IT PERSISTS...GENERAL ANTICIPATED WEAKENING TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THIS
THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.

..KERR.. 09/02/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...

LAT...LON   42737516 43027445 43587341 42657327 41797399 41347568
            42417561 42737516



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