Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 271747
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271746
MIZ000-WIZ000-272015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1407
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 271746Z - 272015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL IS INCREASING BUT A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...STRONG HEATING ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED
BAROCLINIC ZONE WITHIN A NARROW ZONE OF 65-70F DEWPOINTS IS
PRODUCING MIXED-LAYER CAPE VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
RANGE. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS MODEST BUT LARGE ENOUGH /25-30 KT/ TO
SUPPORT LOOSELY-ORGANIZED MULTICELL STRUCTURES. A DEEP MOIST LAYER
UP TO 800-750 MB AND MODERATE LAPSE RATES UP TO 700-650 MB COULD
SUPPORT BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH
ANY OF THE STRONGER AND MORE PERSISTENT STORMS. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THE THREAT IS LIMITED BY A MUCH DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER OVER
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. ADDITIONALLY
THE SEVERE THREAT IN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL STAY EAST OF THE LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY PUSHING SLOWLY EAST FROM BERRIEN TO KENT
COUNTIES IN LOWER MICHIGAN. A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE
EXPECTATION OF A MOSTLY DISORGANIZED AND ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT.

..CONIGLIO/DIAL.. 07/27/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...GRB...MKX...ARX...

LAT...LON   44148645 44228539 44188430 44168355 44028276 43758235
            43528233 43048246 42868275 42808343 42788530 42798547
            42678686 42618813 42778966 43029030 43409041 43749018
            44108872 44138732 44148645




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