000
ACUS11 KWNS 242333
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242332
NCZ000-VAZ000-250030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1464
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0632 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN VA / NERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 440...

VALID 242332Z - 250030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 440
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK /MAINLY LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WINDS/ WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC AND RECENT SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS A SW-NE ORIENTED QLCS FROM NEAR RDU NEWD TO ORF.  STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HR ON THE SWRN PORTION OF THE QLCS ON THE
WESTWARD EXTENSION OF AN EARLIER-DAY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT ARCS FROM
S OF CAPE FEAR TO THE RDU VICINITY.  A LONGER-LIVED HP STORM
EXHIBITING SOME SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS WILL CONTINUE SEWD OVER
THE NEXT HR IN EXTREME SERN VA ALONG AN AGGREGATE OUTFLOW/SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY.  EXPECTING THE QLCS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD INTO NERN NC
AND MOVE INTO A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS EMANATING
FROM CONVECTION OVER ERN NC.  NONETHELESS...THE APPROACH OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT FROM THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
WILL AID IN STORMS PERSISTING WELL INTO THE EVENING.  THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH THOUGH AS STORMS MOVE TO NEAR THE EDGE
OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.  AN ADDITIONAL WATCH AND/OR WATCH
EXTENSION-IN-AREA WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED.

..SMITH.. 07/24/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

LAT...LON   35957855 36587741 36907635 36357579 36027614 35617785
            35607844 35957855