000
ACUS11 KWNS 311528
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311527
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-311700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1505
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY AND PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 311527Z - 311700Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FROM ERN NY
ACROSS NT/NH AND INTO WRN ME. STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SOME HAIL. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY
AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS WEAK DESTABILIZATION OCCURS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 25-35 KT WILL SUPPORT
LINE SEGMENTS WITH POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
SBCAPE GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG AND POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL LIMIT INTENSITY SOMEWHAT...BUT FAST STORM MOTION AND FORCING
FOR ASCENT PROVIDED BY APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL BE
ADEQUATE TO MAINTAIN STORMS EASTWARD ACROSS VT/NH AND INTO WRN
ME...WITH STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. SOME
SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ALSO IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST
STORMS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH
ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

..LEITMAN/HART.. 07/31/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...

LAT...LON   42717332 42837385 43147416 43617419 44307412 44677388
            45127363 45437199 45787110 46187038 46356990 45996969
            45516947 44217005 43287121 42687251 42717332