000
ACUS11 KWNS 152101
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152100
NCZ000-SCZ000-152300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0361
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SC AND SERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 152100Z - 152300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AS STORMS DEVELOP ALONG AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...A WATCH APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE MAP SHOWS A LOW OVER NRN SC AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER VORT MAX WITH OUTFLOW-ENHANCED COLD FRONT
EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS NC AND INTO SERN VA. THIS FRONT WAS SURGING
SEWD QUICKLY AND WILL STABILIZE THE AIR MASS. THE FRONT CONTINUES
SWD ACROSS CNTRL SC AND SERN GA...WHERE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS
ATTEMPTING TO FORM.

THE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY WEAK...AND MAY REMAIN SO DUE TO WEAK
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...PERSISTING STRONG SHEAR PROFILES COULD
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A STORM OR TWO WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS...AND
SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AT TIMES. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR ANY UPTREND...BUT A WATCH APPEARS UNLIKELY FOR SUCH
ISOLATED AND CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL.

..JEWELL/HART.. 04/15/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...

LAT...LON   32877930 32338013 32368045 32658070 33138067 33698040
            34747986 35227950 36047830 36237746 36007656 35667622
            34657617 34487700 34157755 33777784 33717831 33587879
            33207907 32877930