Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 291328
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291328 COR
TXZ000-291430-

Mesoscale Discussion 0367
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0828 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Areas affected...Southeast Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 291328Z - 291430Z

CORRECTED FOR WORDING IN THE SUMMARY PARAGRAPH

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat is expected to move across
southeast Texas over the next few hours. A few damaging wind gusts
and perhaps a brief tornado may occur with short bowing line
segments. However, the severe threat should remain marginal for WW
issuance.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a continuous line of
thunderstorms located from about 40 statute miles west of Houston
extending south southwestward to the vicinity of Victoria. The line
appears to be located along an old outflow boundary. Ahead of this
line, a moist airmass is present with surface dewpoints in the upper
60s F with moderate instability in place (MLCAPE of 1000 to 1500
J/kg). The line of storms is being supported by a subtle shortwave
trough moving around an upper-level low in the southern high Plains
and this will help maintain the line as it moves across the
remainder of southeast Texas over the next few hours. Concerning the
environment, the Houston WSR-88D VWP shows substantial directional
shear in the boundary layer with ample speed shear above 2 km AGL.
This is resulting in about 70 kt of 0-6 km shear suggesting storm
organization will be possible with this convection. The current
thinking is that this line will continue to have an isolated severe
threat and that a few damaging wind gusts will occur as the line
moves across the Houston area. A brief tornado can also not be ruled
out but low-level shear appears to be marginal for a more sustained
tornado threat.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 03/29/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...

LAT...LON   30879545 29429642 28599715 28199652 28089572 29609410
            30859382 30879545




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