Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 152321
SPC MCD 152320

Mesoscale Discussion 0055
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0520 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

Areas affected...Central/North Central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 152320Z - 160115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Severe threat is gradually increasing across central/north
central Texas.  Locally damaging winds and marginally severe hail,
and perhaps a tornado or two are the primary threats.  Watch may be
required to address this potential.

DISCUSSION...Over the last hour or so convection has gradually
increased in areal coverage/intensity along the I-35 corridor from
central TX, northward to near the Red River.  Much of this activity
is cellular in nature with several deeper updrafts having the
characteristics of supercells.  One storm has a longer history of
rotation as it lifts north across Williamson/Bell/Coryell counties.
Weak supercells are now evolving northwest of Waco over
Hamilton/Bosque counties.  Surface-based buoyancy is still quite
weak across this region but dew points are gradually increasing and
near-sfc based convection could yield a small but increasing threat
for isolated tornadoes.  Even so, the primary risk should be locally
damaging winds and marginally severe hail.  This region is being
considered for a watch.

..Darrow/Guyer.. 01/15/2017

...Please see for graphic product...


LAT...LON   29989851 32289824 33639761 33399618 31499642 29889719
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