Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 281901
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281900
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-282130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1630
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE...TX SOUTH
PLAINS...WRN OK...CNTRL/SRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 281900Z - 282130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS CURRENTLY UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A COLD FRONT ARCING FROM
CNTRL KS TO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE...WITH THIS BOUNDARY REMAINING
STATIONARY FARTHER W INTO NRN NM. A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS S OF THE
FRONT FROM THE NERN TX PANHANDLE TO SERN NM. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE STEEPENING W OF A MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD BAND THAT IS ADVANCING
EWD FROM CNTRL KS TO WRN OK AND THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF TX. THIS
IS YIELDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE BUOYANCY INVOF THE SFC
TROUGH. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE. ADDITIONAL
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM FROM THIS REGIME AND PERHAPS FARTHER
N ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO KS...AS DCVA SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA IN
ADVANCE OF A MID/UPPER PV MAX CROSSING CO PER MOISTURE-CHANNEL
IMAGERY. GIVEN 25-35 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW SURROUNDING THE PV MAX AS
SAMPLED BY AREA VWPS...A FEW ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED STORMS INCLUDING
MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND MARGINAL SUPERCELLS COULD EVOLVE. ISOLATED
SVR HAIL/WIND COULD OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY
WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW EVIDENT IN SFC OBS AND PLAN-VIEW DEPICTIONS OF
VWP DATA CAST SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY ON THE COVERAGE OF SUCH
POTENTIAL. FURTHERMORE...THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF SUCH RISK WILL BE
LIMITED BY STUNTED DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD BAND.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 08/28/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   33920258 34640253 36590024 38129906 38939856 38459803
            36779845 34969951 34050045 33680193 33920258



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