Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 031859
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031859
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-032130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1290
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 PM CDT FRI JUL 03 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SE CO...NE NM...SW KS...NW OK...NRN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 031859Z - 032130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS SE CO
AND NE NM. A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP FURTHER TO THE
EAST ACROSS SW KS...THE NRN TX PANHANDLE AND IN NW OK. WW ISSUANCE
MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN THE WRN PART OF THE MCD AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WHERE A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS IS IN
PLACE. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SRN CO AND NE NM ARE
GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 F. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO AN
AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ANALYZED FROM THE ERN OK PANHANDLE NWWD
INTO SE CO WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 1500
J/KG RANGE. CONVECTION HAS INITIATED OVER THE LAST HOUR ON THE WRN
EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS FROM WEST OF PUEBLO TO NEAR RATON NM. AS SFC TEMPS
CONTINUE TO WARM...CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO INITIATE AND
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS IS SUPPORTED BY SHORT-TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS
INCLUDING THE HRRR. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR PUEBLO AND RATON FOR
THIS AFTERNOON SHOW SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM THE SFC TO
500 MB WITH 30 TO 35 KT OF NWLY FLOW JUST ABOVE 500 MB. THIS WIND
PROFILE SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.0 TO 8.0 C/KM WILL AID
IN THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST OF
STORMS. AS DOWNDRAFTS MATURE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE FURTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS SW KS AND NW OK WHERE
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR APPEARS STRONG
ENOUGH FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS.

..BROYLES/MEAD.. 07/03/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36869987 37400036 37800114 38320278 38960361 39080390
            38980452 37940617 36920642 36170617 35810537 36040288
            36040193 36000032 36349981 36869987




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