000
ACUS11 KWNS 200433
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200432
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-200600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1136
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...NE SD...FAR WRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 200432Z - 200600Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR HAIL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN
ND...NE SD AND FAR WRN MN DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE PRIMARY
THREAT ACROSS THE MCD AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL SHORT LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING IN NE SD AND SE ND ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF WARM
ADVECTION. THE STORMS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHEAST OF A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD FROM NCNTRL SD INTO SERN SD. REGIONAL
WSR-88D VWPS SUGGEST THAT LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS INCREASED TO ABOUT 40
KT ACROSS THE SRN PART OF THE MCD AREA WHERE MUCAPE VALUES ARE
ESTIMATED FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR
OF 25 TO 30 KT ALONG WITH 700 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.5 C/KM
SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. THE
STORMS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS A SFC INVERSION BECOMES PRONOUNCED
OVERNIGHT.

..BROYLES/CARBIN.. 06/20/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   47819724 48339889 48329975 48200000 47620036 46940039
            46390000 45719929 45119847 44929797 44899737 44989680
            45239644 46429615 47819724