Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 261825
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261825
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-262100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1622
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0125 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/NRN AZ...FAR SRN UT...FAR SRN NV

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 261825Z - 262100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED...WW ISSUANCE IS CURRENTLY UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOPS IMPLY A BAND OF ASCENT EDGING EWD
ACROSS THE REGION...IN ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL CYCLONE CROSSING SRN
NV AND ATTENDANT TROUGH EXTENDING SSWWD INTO SRN CA. AREAS OF
INSOLATION ON THE FRINGES OF MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THIS
BAND OF ASCENT WILL DIURNALLY BOLSTER BAROCLINICITY ALONG WITH
OROGRAPHIC ASCENT AND INSTABILITY...AMIDST INCREASING DCVA. THESE
FACTORS WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION INTO THE
AFTERNOON...AS HAS ALREADY BEEN EVIDENT IN RECENT 9-KM CAPPI DATA.
SFC OBSERVATIONS AND THE 12Z PHOENIX RAOB SUGGEST AMPLE LOWER/MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN PLACE. POLEWARD FLUXES OF MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA ARE SUPPORTING SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND
60S -- HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. WHEN COUPLED
WITH MODESTLY STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MLCAPE ON THE ORDER
OF 1000-2000 J/KG EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION.

FSX AND ESX VWPS SAMPLE 30-40-KT MID-LEVEL SWLYS/WSWLYS ASSOCIATED
WITH ENHANCED FLOW ALOFT RELATED TO THE TROUGH. THIS WILL YIELD
SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...INCLUDING
MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLY TRANSIENT/BRIEF SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES. DMGG WIND GUSTS AND SVR HAIL MAY OCCUR ON AN ISOLATED
BASIS. MODEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW...ALONG WITH THE LACK OF EVEN STEEPER
LAPSE RATES...MAY PREVENT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM RISK FROM
EVOLVING. NEVERTHELESS...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 08/26/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF...

LAT...LON   33641432 34401462 36511450 37381362 37301204 36621121
            35021116 33731256 33501368 33641432




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