Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
ACUS11 KWNS 042019
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042019
OKZ000-042145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1297
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0319 PM CDT SAT JUL 04 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 042019Z - 042145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SOME SVR HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EVENING. ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...SLOW-MOVING TSTM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS
DEWEY...BLAINE...AND CUSTER COUNTIES IN W-CNTRL OK. THIS ACTIVITY IS
LOCATED ALONG A CONFLUENCE ZONE STRETCHING FROM THESE STORMS SEWD
INTO PUSHMATAHA COUNTY. THIS CONFLUENCE BOUNDARY AS WELL AS THE
OUTFLOW FROM THE ONGOING STORMS WILL LIKELY PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR
ADDITIONAL TSTM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION IS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S...DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW 70S...AND STRONG INSTABILITY /MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES
MLCAPE OVER 2500 J PER KG/.

STRONG UPDRAFTS COUPLED WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.6 INCHES /NEAR THE
75TH PERCENTILE BASED ON SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY/ WILL LIKELY
PROMOTE PRECIP LOADING. ADDITIONALLY...MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATED DCAPE
IS OVER 1500 J PER KG FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. AS SUCH...A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THROUGH THE EVENING. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY...SOME SVR HAIL IS POSSIBLE TOO. SVR STORM COVERAGE IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED WITH THE NEED FOR WW UNLIKELY.

..MOSIER/MEAD.. 07/04/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   34419810 34809887 35319924 35679921 36139831 35529669
            34809589 34219578 33949665 34419810



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.