336
ACUS11 KWNS 150032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150032
MOZ000-KSZ000-150200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1716
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Areas affected...Southeast KS...Far Southwest MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 500...

Valid 150032Z - 150200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 500
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for locally damaging wind and perhaps
marginally severe hail continues across southeast KS. While storms
will eventually move into southwest MO, a weakening trend is
expected later this evening as a cold front sweeps through the area.

DISCUSSION...Multiple potentially severe bowing segments have
evolved across southeast KS over the last 1-2 hours. With moderate
instability and relatively strong low-level flow and effective shear
in place, these features will continue to pose a threat of damaging
wind and localized hail for the next 1-2 hours as they move into
southeast KS and west-central MO. The strongest of the bowing
segments is likely to move east-northeast into Tornado Watch 501,
while the trailing segments will eventually impact the remainder of
southeast KS into southwest MO.

A strong cold front is approaching the southeast KS from the north
and will overtake the strongest convection by mid-evening. With the
strongest large-scale ascent moving northeast away from the region
and weaker moisture and instability with eastward extent (as noted
in 00Z SGF sounding), a weakening trend is expected with time as
convection becomes increasingly undercut over southwest MO. Some
local extension of the WW 500 may be required in the short term
across southwest MO, but at this time new watch issuance is
unlikely.

..Dean/Guyer.. 10/15/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   37059759 37499764 37889687 38199602 38409533 38519489
            38499468 38229439 37989368 37139379 37059759