Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 201414
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201414
NYZ000-PAZ000-201845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1928
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0814 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...LEE OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 201414Z - 201845Z

SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES /EXCEEDING 2 INCHES PER HOUR/ AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSNOW ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY MIDDAY IN LEE
OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN SOUNDINGS /INCREASING HEIGHT OF THE INVERSION
ACROSS LOWER MI BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z TODAY/ ARE INDICATIVE OF THE
COOLING TEMPERATURES AND HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MID-LEVEL TROUGH.  12Z SOUNDING AT
BUF SHOWED SIMILAR TRENDS IN THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE COLDER AIR SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE
RELATIVELY WARMER LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS PER
12Z RAP/HRRR OVER AND EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES CONFIRM THESE
OBSERVATIONS WITH AN INCREASE IN BUOYANCY.  THUS...THE INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE DEPTH SHOULD RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSNOW
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ONGOING BANDS...FURTHER ENHANCING THE HEAVY
SNOWFALL RATES.

..PETERS.. 11/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CLE...

LAT...LON   44377635 44607563 44617485 44277448 43247536 42287748
            42057948 42228044 43087900 43707815 44097703 44377635




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