000
ACUS11 KWNS 152228
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152228
TXZ000-160000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0185
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0528 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 29...

VALID 152228Z - 160000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 29
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CONTINUES...AND COULD STILL
INCREASE WITH UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH POSSIBLE INTO THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH 00-02Z.  COUNTIES TO THE SOUTH
OF WW 0029 IN THE FWD CWA MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO WW 0029.

DISCUSSION...STRONGEST STORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN FOCUSED WELL TO
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...ACROSS
AND EAST OF THE ABILENE AREA.  THIS IS WHERE THE MOST SUBSTANTIVE
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION HAS TAKEN PLACE...WITHIN A ZONE OF
DIFFERENTIAL SURFACE HEATING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF MORE
EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...WHERE IT IS
INTERSECTED BY THE DRYLINE.

MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF A CYCLONIC
VORTICITY CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS HAS AIDED
DEVELOPMENT.  AND THIS COULD STILL SUPPORT UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH
ALONG THE ZONE OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE 00-02Z TIME FRAME.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS COULD EVENTUALLY IMPACT AT LEAST SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE METROPLEX...AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY NOT BE
COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE WITH STORMS NOW SPREADING ACROSS THE
METROPLEX...BUT THE HIGHEST SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES NOW APPEAR
SOUTHEAST OF ABILENE INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN AUSTIN AND THE
METROPLEX.

..KERR.. 03/15/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   32389897 33049815 32749624 31479634 30299775 30459924
            31459905 32389897