602
ACUS11 KWNS 241806
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241805
NCZ000-SCZ000-242030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1146
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Areas affected...Parts of the South Carolina piedmont into North
Carolina coastal plain

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 241805Z - 242030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms accompanied by a risk for occasional
localized strong surface gusts may continue to develop through the
4-6 PM EDT time frame.  Trends will continue to be monitored, but
the need for a watch is not currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Despite generally weak lower/mid tropospheric lapse
rates, a corridor of stronger pre-frontal boundary layer heating
(with surface temps around 90F) is contributing to moderate CAPE on
the order of 1500+ J/kg across parts of the South/North Carolina
piedmont into the North Carolina coastal plain.  This is occurring
in the presence of seasonably high moisture content (lower/mid 70s
surface dew points and 2+ inch precipitable water), and a belt of
modest west southwesterly lower/mid tropospheric flow on the order
of 30 kt.

Deepening convective development is already evident within this
environment, downstream of a subtle mid-level impulse now beginning
to progress east northeast of the Georgia piedmont.  And further
intensification seems likely through the peak afternoon heating.
Eventually, heavy precipitation loading and downward momentum
transfer may contribute to a risk for localized potentially damaging
wind gusts near the stronger activity.  This could include small
upscale growing clusters, but the potential for the evolution of one
large well organized convective system seems low, and likely to
limit widespread severe weather potential.

..Kerr/Guyer.. 06/24/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   34728137 35298021 35537837 35727703 35527607 34847604
            34557860 33588085 33648183 33928177 34728137