000
ACUS11 KWNS 010826
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010826
NCZ000-VAZ000-011400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0107
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NC AND VA PIEDMONT

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 010826Z - 011400Z

SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NNEWD FROM
CNTRL NC INTO S-CNTRL VA BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  RAINFALL RATES
AROUND 0.05 INCH PER 3 HOURS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 14Z.

DISCUSSION...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 1040 MB HIGH
OVER DELMARVA WITH A CP AIR MASS DAMMED IN LEE OF THE CNTRL-SRN
APPALACHIANS TO THE N OF A RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE.  SURFACE TEMPS
RANGE FROM 32 DEG F OVER CNTRL NC TO THE MIDDLE 20S OVER S-CNTRL VA.
A BROAD WARM-AIR ADVECTION REGIME ENCOMPASSES THE TN VALLEY AND
CAROLINAS AS THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS TRANSITIONS TO A
TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES AND WEAK RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  A GRADUAL MOISTENING IN THE LOWER-MID
TROPOSPHERE WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT FAVORS THE
NEWD SPREAD OF SHOWERS FROM SC AND S-CNTRL NC INTO CNTRL NC AND
S-CNTRL VA THROUGH 14Z.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SUBSTANTIAL
MELTING LAYER PROTRUDING AROUND H8 ATOP A SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING
NEAR-SURFACE LAYER.  THE RESULTANT P-TYPE WILL FAVOR FREEZING RAIN
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 0.05 INCH PER 3 HOUR RATES ARE POSSIBLE
ONCE FREEZING RAIN BEGINS.

..SMITH.. 03/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...GSP...

LAT...LON   36557760 35707859 35618060 36547992 37177860 36557760