Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 052327
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052326
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-060130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1869
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0526 PM CST MON DEC 05 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AL...FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 515

VALID 052326Z - 060130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 515 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO CONTINUES THROUGH 02Z.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE MESOANALYSIS AT 23Z SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO EAST TO NEAR FT. WALTON BEACH AND EXTREME SOUTHERN
GEORGIA.  WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER CONTINUES TO
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
AND AS A RESULT LITTLE TO ONLY VERY SLOW NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT.  APPRECIABLE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY REMAINS OFFSHORE OR
VERY NEAR THE COAST...AND ANY ADDITIONAL INLAND DESTABILIZATION WILL
LIKELY BE TOWARDS THE END OF THE VALID TIME OF WW 515 WHEN LOW-LEVEL
FLOW INCREASES WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.

RADAR IMAGERY SINCE 22Z HAS SHOWN OCCASIONAL AND SHORT-LIVED BOWING
SEGMENTS NEAR THE COAST...AND ADDITIONAL SIMILARLY-STRUCTURED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z WITH
STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS THE MAIN CONCERN.  AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR
TWO WILL INCREASE WITH STRONGER STORMS AS EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES
AVERAGE 300-350 M2/S2.

..BUNTING.. 12/05/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON   30908764 30988628 31218555 31188532 30988500 30518502
            30128501 29738519 29478520 29278534 29208565 29318637
            29428675 29508742 29588766 29788780 30248788 30718791
            30908764




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