Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
ACUS11 KWNS 011933
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011932
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-012200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0245
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 PM CST Wed Mar 01 2017

Areas affected...Portions of southern MS...southwest AL...southern
LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 011932Z - 012200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe potential will spread across parts of the
lower MS Valley region and vicinity through the late afternoon/early
evening hours. Watch issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development continues southwestward along
a weakly convergent segment of a front -- from parts of central MS
to southwest LA. Despite weak frontal ascent, strong heating of a
moist boundary layer characterized by middle 60s dewpoints is
supporting moderate buoyancy. Given effective shear around 40-50 kt
with deep flow oriented obliquely to the frontal segment,
semi-discrete updrafts and thunderstorm clusters are forecast to
spread eastward through early evening. The aforementioned
shear/buoyancy may support a few severe thunderstorms. However, weak
deep ascent/frontal convergence should tend to limit the overall
severe risk.

..Cohen/Hart.. 03/01/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   30489299 32079056 32378936 32248855 31778832 30799034
            30199227 30489299



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.