000
FXUS64 KTSA 161954
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
254 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017


.DISCUSSION...
Little in the way of a focus for convection today...however
isolated storms through the remainder of the afternoon cannot be
ruled out across southeast OK and west central AR. Hot and humid
day on tap for Saturday ahead of a surface cold front that will
move into the area late Saturday night and Sunday. Warmer
temperatures...higher dewpoints/ RH values will push heat indices
between 105 and 110 degrees for much of the area tomorrow
afternoon. A heat advisory will be in effect for most of eastern
OK and all of west central Arkansas. Parts of far east central OK
and northwest Arkansas should remain below advisory criteria.
However, should higher dewpoints pool further east...some or all
of the remaining counties not currently in the advisory may need
to be added. The aforementioned cold front will move into the area
late Saturday and continue to track south through southeast OK
through Sunday. Storm chances will be maintained along and ahead
of the boundary...especially Sunday afternoon and evening across
southeast Oklahoma as daytime heating ahead of front may reinforce
convection. Behind the front...considerably cooler temperatures
for most of the area is expected along with decreasing rain
chances. High pressure to build into the region for the beginning
of the week...which will suppress rain and thunder chances further
south. Parts of the area may get brushed by a convective complex
or two late Tuesday and Wednesday nights. However...most of the
area should remain dry as the better mid level flow retreats to
the north...so will keep pops low and areal coverage limited for
now.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  96  71  83 /  10   0  40  30
FSM   75  96  75  88 /   0  10  10  30
MLC   76  95  74  87 /   0   0  10  30
BVO   74  96  70  82 /  20   0  50  30
FYV   72  92  71  81 /  10  10  20  40
BYV   73  93  70  80 /  10  10  30  40
MKO   74  94  73  84 /   0   0  20  30
MIO   75  95  70  81 /  20  10  50  40
F10   75  95  73  85 /   0   0  20  20
HHW   75  94  76  91 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....23