


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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161 FXUS64 KTSA 242320 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 620 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 146 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2025 - Hot and humid conditions will prevail for the next week with daily heat indices of 95-105 F across the area. - Daily isolated to scattered showers and storms likely much of this week. - Storm coverage may increase early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 146 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Persistent conditions continue through tonight. Highs this afternoon will top out in the low to mid 90s with heat index values around 100 degrees in most locations. Scattered shower and storm development expected over the next couple of hours across parts of southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Brief downpours and some gusty winds could accompany any storms this afternoon. Coverage should be a little more than yesterday, but still widely scattered in nature. Storms should dissipate with the loss of daytime heating toward sunset. The rest of the night will be mild and dry area wide. Bowlan && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Tuesday) Issued at 146 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 The forecast will remain consistent through the rest of the period. More isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development within the higher terrain on Wednesday afternoon similar to the previous few days. After that, the ridge begins to weaken and flatten somewhat over the eastern CONUS which will allow some thunderstorm activity to become possible across the northern portions of the forecast area in the late afternoon and evening hours through the end of the week. Several waves moving across the northern state could push a weak backdoor frontal boundary into the region by late in the weekend toward early next week. If this occurs, this would provide more of a focus for more widespread storm development, but model uncertainty remains high at this time. Temperatures will mostly run near seasonal average with heat index values ranging from 95 to 105 across the region through the period. Any exception would be with any shower/storm that moves over a location during the afternoon could provide a short term relief. Bowlan && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 620 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Any lingering ongoing showers should weaken and dissipate after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Few to scattered mid and high clouds will become mainly few high clouds this evening and remain common into Wednesday morning. During the afternoon hours Wednesday, scattered mid clouds are forecast to develop once again. Isolated showers/storms are also forecast again Wednesday afternoon, though will continue to keep TAFs dry at this time due to limited coverage and uncertainty of impacting any one terminal. Southerly winds are forecast through the period with the exception of KFSM where an easterly wind develops for the overnight/morning period. VFR conditions are anticipated through the TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 74 92 75 92 / 0 10 0 10 FSM 74 95 74 94 / 20 20 0 10 MLC 73 91 72 91 / 0 10 0 10 BVO 72 92 72 92 / 0 10 0 10 FYV 72 92 72 91 / 20 20 0 10 BYV 71 91 71 91 / 20 20 0 10 MKO 73 90 72 90 / 0 10 0 10 MIO 72 90 73 91 / 0 10 0 10 F10 73 90 72 90 / 0 10 0 10 HHW 72 90 72 90 / 0 10 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...20