Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 260437
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1137 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES. A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN KBVO
TAF AT THIS TIME.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 902 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST PRODUCTS EARLIER TO REMOVE POPS THAT WE
HAD IN WESTERN ARKANSAS. ALSO UPDATED TO REMOVE EXPIRED EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING. ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE DOMINATING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
CONTINUED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A FEW DEGREES LOWER THIS AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO 24-HRS AGO...THOUGH WERE STILL HELPING TO CREATE HEAT
INDICES OF AROUND 105 TO NEAR 110 DEGREES. THUS...WILL LET THE
CURRENT HEAT HEADLINES RIDE AS IS. ALSO THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE
CWA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THESE PULSE TYPE
STORMS...THOUGH A STRONG WIND GUST COULD BE POSSIBLE.

PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK ACROSS THE CWA AS THE RIDGE HOLDS OVER
THE REGION. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES AND HEAT INDICES OF AROUND 105 DEGREES TO NEAR
110 DEGREES ARE FORECAST. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE A BIT LOWER EACH
AFTERNOON AS THE CWA CONTINUE TO TRY TO DRY OUT SOME...WHICH WOULD
HELP KEEP HEAT INDICES FROM GETTING TO FAR OUT OF CONTROL.
HOWEVER...MOST LOCATIONS LOOKS TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED ANOTHER
ADVISORY.

BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO SHIFT WESTWARD SOME AND A WAVE...FORECAST TO MOVE OVER
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...DROPS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD
THE REGION. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE HELD ONTO THE RIDGE LONGER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS...WHICH COULD LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF
THE FRONT AND PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
AT THIS TIME...A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE UNDER THE HIGH AND WILL
CONTINUE SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS FOR THE CWA...FOR NOW...

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-053>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...10



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