Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 292325
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
625 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Ongoing widespread convection will continue through the remainder
of the evening while clearing from west to east. Low ceilings into
the low MVFR to high IFR range are likely behind the passing cold
front along with a period of light winds possibly allowing patchy
fog to develop. Conditions will improve after sunrise Saturday
with VFR returning area wide tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The main forecast concern will be severe weather potential through
tonight.

As of 2 PM...surface analysis indicated an area of low pressure
over far SW OK...with a warm front extending E/NE from the low to
just south of the OKC metro and then diving back to the SE toward
the Red River...near or south of Hugo. Persistent convection over
NE TX/far SE OK/SW AR has maintained a more stable airmass over
far SE OK. The main concern will be storms that are now developing
over SW OK and where these storms will be relative to the warm
front...where more favorable low level shear profiles...in what is
already a supercell favorable deep layer shear environment...would
enhance tornado potential. Another concern is that storms
developing in the weakly capped warm sector well east of dryline
across N TX could lift up into SE OK and interact with said warm
front as well. Concerns are great enough for tornadoes that a
Tornado Watch has been issued for portions of SE OK. Will have to
monitor progress of warm front and expand the watch as necessary
later. Lift will continue to increase over the region as an upper
trough and embedded PV max lift out into the Plains tonight...with
a negative tilt. Storms will gradually increase over the region
into the evening in response to this forcing. The surface low will
begin to develop to the northeast with time in tandem with the
DCVA. A cold front will trail the low and sweep thru the area late
tonight...ending the severe weather threat. With another round of
storms expected over areas that received between 2 and 3 inches of
rain last night, the inherited Flash Flood Watch was maintained
and expanded slightly to cover all areas that picked up the
heavier rains.

A polar cold front will slide across the region on Sunday, in the
wake of the upper system as it slides by to our north. Another
system will slide across the Plains Monday...emanating from the
persistent upper height weakness in the SW CONUS...weakening with
time as the system shears out. Nevertheless...the system will
provide enough lift on the cool side of the front to bring rain
chances to our area. The best chances will be across the south
closest to the surface front. Our area will be well north of said
surface front by Monday...limiting instability to the point that
only isolated thunder mention will be maintained across the south.

The upper pattern will transition to a deep trough in the
East...with ridging over the Rockies. We`re not quite to that time
of year when NW flow brings nighttime tstorm complexes. Tranquil
weather will be the rule thru next weekend.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   58  76  49  72 /  80  10  10  10
FSM   64  81  54  78 /  90  30  10  10
MLC   61  77  53  74 /  80  20   0   0
BVO   56  74  47  70 /  80  10  10  10
FYV   61  77  49  71 /  90  30  10  10
BYV   62  79  51  73 /  90  30  10  10
MKO   60  77  50  72 /  80  20  10  10
MIO   60  76  48  70 /  90  20  10  10
F10   59  76  51  71 /  80  10   0   0
HHW   64  81  55  79 /  80  30  10   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for OKZ049-053-
     070>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...07



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