000
FXUS64 KTSA 112021
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
321 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Overnight convection has essentially worked over the atmosphere
today and also shoved the synoptic boundary well south of the
forecast area. Thus...chances of any convective redevelopment the
remainder of the day will be slim.

Models continue to struggle with the placement of the heaviest
rainfall through the weekend/early next week...although current
indications point to the Red River area as the favored area
beginning late Saturday. The aforementioned frontal boundary is
expected to lift a bit north tomorrow...with increasing convection
north of the boundary by the afternoon as a well-defined mid-level
wave traverses the southern Plains. This activity should continue
to organize and peel east-southeast...impacting areas mainly
south of I-40 during the evening and overnight hours. Some severe
weather will be possible along with locally heavy rainfall given
forecast PWATs near 2 inches. Have held off on any flood headlines
at this time as the event is still a good 24-30 hours
away...although evening/overnight crew will need to revisit.

The GFS and ECMWF diverge significantly with their respective QPF
later Sunday into early Monday...with the GFS much farther north
with the axis of heavy rain. Will lean toward a farther south
solution at this time (essentially blending the two
solutions)...which places additional heavy rainfall along the I-40
corridor.

The upper pattern is expected to become a bit more southwesterly
going into mid-week...which should eventually lift the synoptic
boundary north of the area along with decreasing rain chances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  83  70  84 /  10  30  60  50
FSM   72  87  72  83 /  10  20  60  70
MLC   71  87  73  84 /  20  40  80  60
BVO   65  82  66  82 /  10  20  50  50
FYV   64  81  67  78 /  10  20  50  60
BYV   64  82  65  78 /  10  20  50  60
MKO   69  84  71  82 /  10  30  60  60
MIO   65  83  67  79 /  10  20  50  60
F10   70  83  71  83 /  20  40  70  60
HHW   73  91  74  85 /  20  40  80  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....18