Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 171140
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
640 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY AT ALL SITES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT RESULTING IN
MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BLOSSOMED OVER EASTERN KANSAS WITHIN THE PAST
HOUR OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO A DISTURBANCE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
THE APPROACH OF A STRONG UPPER JET. MOVEMENT OF THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY CONFIRMS THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR SOLUTIONS THAT KEEP THE
BULK OF THIS NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS BORDERS UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL POPS IN FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH HIGHER
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. ONGOING PATCHY BUT
OCCASIONALLY DENSE FOG IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD BE GONE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. PER SURFACE OBS...VISIBILITIES HAVE VARIED
WILDLY THIS MORNING AT ANY ONE LOCATION WHICH COULD MAKE FOR A
DIFFICULT COMMUTE ESPECIALLY IN THE BENTON AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN
MOST AREAS...WITH SOME SPOTS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 LIKELY
TO TOUCH 90 DEGREES.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND AFFECT A BIGGER
SECTION OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT AND
PERHAPS INTO TOMORROW AS ANOTHER SEGMENT OF THE UPPER JET
STRENGTHENS TO OUR EAST AND A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH MISSOURI
AND ARKANSAS. A BRIEF DRYING TREND STILL APPEARS TO BE IN THE
OFFING FOR FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS UPPER RIDGING QUICKLY
BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS.

THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...HOWEVER...AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE MOVING INTO THE REGION...A HEAVY RAIN EVENT CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKELY SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF...MOST MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL PLACE THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS TO OUR
NORTH...WHILE STILL ALLOWING FOR SOME BENEFICIAL RAIN AMOUNTS
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 18Z
SATURDAY AND 06Z SUNDAY. THE RAIN SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A DRY BUT COOL BEGINNING TO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05




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