Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 101123
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
523 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR/IFR cigs will prevail at most sites through the morning, with
brief IFR cigs across the NW AR sites through mid morning.
Strong sfc winds with gusts between 20-30 kts will aid scattering
out cigs by early afternoon. VFR elements to prevail into late
evening when MVFR/IFR cigs are expected to redevelop at all sites
after 06z.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 408 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Impressive vapor imagery this morning of upper low which recently
came ashore over southern California. This wave is expected to
track eastward into the western High Plains by this evening and
then lift sharply northeastward into the Central Plains by
Thursday morning. Sfc gradient will continue to strengthen ahead
of the wave with gusty winds today and seasonably mild
temperatures despite extensive cloud cover. An area of light rain
may spread across northeast Oklahoma tonight as the upper wave
passes however the bulk of the precip will focus north of the
region. The associated strong cold front will enter NE OK around
sunrise Thursday and quickly sweep through western AR by mid to
later afternoon. Steadily falling temps can be expected once the
front passes.

The evolution of the shortwave trough associated with the
aforementioned wave remains somewhat uncertain as 00z EC solution
has shifted nearer the more progressive GFS solutions of recent
days. While considerable spread remains in ensemble solutions
regarding this evolution, the local impacts are not too large
either way as the zone of highest winter weather impacts will
remain east of the region. That being said, large scale lift will
remain over the region as the cold front sweeps eastward and light
precip is likely with all precip type transitions shown in
forecast soundings as the cold air deepens. Additionally a band of
strong mid level frontogenetic forcing is likely to develop
Thursday afternoon supportive of a band of higher snow totals.
This band would be rather progressive given the recent model
trends which would limit snow totals. Overall any snow and ice
amounts are likely to remain light but travel may be briefly
impacted Thursday into Thurs evening before all precip moves east
of the area.

Sharply colder temperatures will prevail through the weekend with
continued low chance of light rain or snow on Monday. Again any
snow amounts at this time frame would appear to be very low.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....23



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