000
FXUS64 KTSA 290518
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1118 PM CST THU NOV 28 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 846 PM CST THU NOV 28 2013/

DISCUSSION...

NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. A RATHER FLAT
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES THROUGH
FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA THIS
EVENING WILL SLIDE EAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. A WEAK
LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS WELL. SO
AFTER CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND TONIGHT...WINDS SHOULD
BECOME SOUTHERLY AND MAY BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN TODAY...MAINLY
OVER EASTERN OK. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHTER OVER WESTERN AR CLOSER
TO THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOSE
TO TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE FORECAST IN THE LOW LVL THERMAL
FIELDS.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 PM CST THU NOV 28 2013/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID
PERIOD AT ALL AREA TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CST THU NOV 28 2013/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS POSITIONED ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...TEMPS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
HAVE WARMED TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS COMMON.
THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH THE CWA STAYING JUST TO THE SOUTH. LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT COULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO GET DOWN INTO
THE LOW TO MID 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTHWARD FRIDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.

BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY QUICKLY MOVING WITHIN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL HELP TEMPS TO REACH UP INTO THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60
DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND BRINGING AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. TEMPS SUNDAY LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...THOUGH STILL
NEAR THE SEASON AVERAGE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN MONDAY AND BECOME BREEZY TUESDAY AHEAD OF
A LONGWAVE TROF PUSHING ONTO THE WEST COAST AND A STRONG COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE PLAINS. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR FOR ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS TO BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO DEVELOP
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE CWA. HIGH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES COULD CREATE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

LATEST MODEL RUNS DIFFER SOME ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT ENTERING
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. GFS HAS THE FRONT ENTERING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE THE ECMWF TIMING IS ABOUT 12 HRS SLOWER WITH IT
ENTERING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY... CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN SHOWERS
REMAINING POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COLDER
AIR AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE LONGWAVE TROF REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO FEED SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION
WHILE COLD AIR REMAINS AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR CHANCE
FOR WINTRY PRECIP TO POSSIBLY DEVELOP BEFORE THE WAVE PUSHES
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SETUP AS MORE
DATA COMES IN.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10