000
FXUS64 KTSA 122024
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
324 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED AS A NEGATIVE PNA PATTERN...WITH A
TROUGH IN THE PAC NW AND A RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER THE PLAINS. 500MB
HIGH CENTER HAS BECOME LARGE AND ELONGATED...BASICALLY STRETCHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS OK AND AR AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST EJECTS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK...THE MID/UPPER RIDGE
WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AND CENTERED OVER OK WHILE EVENTUALLY
SLIDING EAST BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST A WINDOW
OF RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. AT THE SURFACE...A COOL FRONT TO THE
NORTH OVER KANSAS WILL SLIDE DOWN INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND WILL STALL. THIS
FRONT SHOULD REMAIN DRY GIVEN OUR PROXIMITY TO 500MB RIDGE
CENTER...AND WILL MERELY SERVE TO KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF THE
TEMPS WITH SOME HIGHER HUMIDITY AS WELL.

AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST THIS WEEKEND...A TUTT LOW
LOCATED OVER SOUTH TX WILL ROUND THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH
SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEKEND...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/UPPER JET STREAK WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND WILL PUSH A
FRONT DOWN INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF
THESE FEATURES WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS AND RAIN CHANCES...GOOD
NEWS FOR THOSE THAT DO NOT LIKE HEAT WAVES. IN FACT...NEW DATA
FROM THE 12Z EURO SUGGESTS WE COULD SEE MCS ACTIVITY IN THE NW
FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT TIMING THIS THAT FAR OUT IS
DIFFICULT. THE IDEA OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE REGION
AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES IS VALID HOWEVER.

DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD BACK OVER
THE PLAINS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS WE RETURN TO THE
NEGATIVE PNA PATTERN THAT WE ARE CURRENTLY IN. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS A RESULT AND THE SUMMER HEAT WILL RETURN.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  92  74  94 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   75  96  73  94 /   0   0  10  10
MLC   73  95  72  95 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   69  90  68  94 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   70  90  67  88 /   0  10  10  10
BYV   71  88  66  89 /  10  10   0  10
MKO   72  92  72  93 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   71  88  68  91 /  10  10   0  10
F10   72  93  72  94 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   72  95  74  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30