025
FXUS63 KGLD 140122
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
722 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather is possible over much of the area on Friday.
  Storms will develop in Colorado during the afternoon and move
  eastward through the remainder of the area Friday evening into
  Friday night. Some of these storms will be capable of
  producing large hail and damaging winds. Locally heavy
  rainfall and isolated flash flooding are also possible.

- Return of triple digit heat expected on Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 700 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024

As of 0100 UTC, convection has since progressed ESE-SE into
central and southern Kansas. Regional mesoanalysis data
indicates a considerable amount (200-300 J/kg) of convective
inhibition is already present over the Goodland CWA.. and that
CIN will further increase with loss of heating AOA sunset.
Additional development is not anticipated. Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 410 was cancelled at 621 PM MDT / 0021 UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 122 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Across the Tri State region this afternoon, skies are sunny for
most except for clouds developing along a front near the I-70
corridor from Highway 27 and points west. Temperatures as of 100
PM MDT are ranging from the mid 90s into the lower and mid
100s. Winds are northeasterly gusting to 20-25 mph at times.

The main wx concerns in the short term period will be the threat for
strong to severe storms during the afternoon/evening hours today and
again on Friday.

For the remainder of the afternoon into tonight, the focus for
convective initiation will be along the frontal boundary which
currently sits along/south of I-70. Some cumulus is popping up and
will be monitored through the afternoon. Parameters suggesting even
some landspouts are also possible initially as storms move along the
front. The latest CAMs are showing convection beginning in earnest
around sunset and continuing into the evening hrs. With a very dry
airmass, soundings are showing strong DCape values around 00z Friday
in the 2200-2400 j/kg range and SBCape/MUCape in the 1800-1900j/kg
range.

Looking for main threats as large hail and damaging winds. SPC has
upgraded the CWA to a Slight Risk for severe, with wind/hail
threats. Can`t rule out an isolated tornado as well. The NamNest,
HRRR and RAP all show most of the activity moving east this evening,
with the bulk south of I-70 and the front. Some lingering rw/trw is
possible through 12z Friday, but pops will be in the 30-40% range
tapering to 15-20% overnight.

Going into Friday/Friday night, the region again blanketed under a
Slight Risk for storms, for the afternoon and evening hours.
Guidance is showing the upper ridge currently over the southern
Rockies to shift east into the southern Plains. This will allow for
a couple shortwaves to work into the CWA along the northern
periphery of the upper ridge. The one set to interact with a strong
surface trough during the evening hours, will create the best
chances for severe storms. Wind and hail are main threats, along
with an isolated tornado, especially north of I-70. Soundings
suggest large hail of at least 1-2 inches are possible, with some
2+. PW values of 1-2 inches will also result in the threat for
locally heavy rainfall creating flash flooding concerns. Convection
shifts/clears west to east overnight as both the surface/upper
features clear the CWA towards 12z Saturday. Best chances after 06z
will be east of Highway 25, but the bulk of highest pops 70-80% will
be during the evening hours.

For temps, the region will see daytime highs on Friday range in the
mid to upper 80s. This will be offset by lows tonight ranging in the
lower to mid 60s, and lows Friday night ranging from the lower 60s
west into the mid and upper 60s east of Highway 25.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Saturday we will see the leftovers over the upper-level low move
through and out of the area. This could sparks up some showers and
lower end storms. The greatest potential hazard would be if this
precipitation moved over areas that had been rained on the previous
couple of day, creating a flooding risk.

Sunday, the low will clear the area and we will be under weak
southwesterly flow aloft. This will give us about a 15-20% daily
chance of precipitation due to shortwaves in the evenings, but
nothing highly organized is expected until the weak flow is
disrupted, likely Tuesday afternoon. Around this time, the pressure
gradient tightens up as the low over the NW CONUS pushes farther
inland. This would work to amplify any disturbances and increase
chances for PoPs. By mid-next week, we could see the low moving into
the Great Plains and sending a cold front through the region. This
would spark up some storms and start cooling temperatures down some.

High temperatures until mid-next week look to be in the low 90s to
low 100s. After the cold front moves through, after Tuesday, we will
likely only warm into the 80s and low 90s. Overnight temperatures
will follow a similar pattern and drop into the 60s to low 70s each
night, save for Sunday night. Sunday night, additional cloud cover
and fairly strong winds from the south are expected to keep
temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Gusts overnight could get up
to 30 kts. Behind the cold front, lows will cool down into the mid
50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 600 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024

GLD: Aside from a potential for MVFR-IFR ceilings a few hours on
either side of sunrise Friday morning.. and a potential for
thunderstorms Friday evening (00-06Z Sat).. VFR conditions will
otherwise prevail. NE winds at 10-17 knots this evening will
veer to the E (overnight) and SE (Friday).

MCK: Aside from a potential for thunderstorms Friday evening
(00-06Z Sat).. VFR conditions will prevail. NE winds at 10-17
knots this evening will veer to the E (overnight) and SE
(Friday).

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Vincent
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Vincent