352
FXUS63 KIND 271726
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1226 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A chilly but dry Thanksgiving in the 30s...with robust wind gusts
  up to 20-30 MPH, wind chills climbing from teens to the 20s today

- Wind chills in the teens during overnight-early morning hours
  through much of the forecast period

- Growing confidence in accumulating snow and travel impacts Saturday
  and Saturday night before a gradual mixing with rain into early
  Sunday before ending

- Cold and unsettled pattern for early December with additional
  opportunities for snow and wintry weather

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 959 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

A substantial low level subsidence inversion persists this morning,
trapping low level moisture and keeping an expansive stratus deck in
place. Some very light flurries are falling in spots and will
include a mention of this in the update.

Drier air filtering into the area later this afternoon should allow
for clearing from the northwest to overspread the area, though it
will be too late to significantly impact temperatures, and have
bumped maxes down a few degrees across the board for most of the
area except the far southwest.

Sporadic wind gusts into the low 20KT range will persist through mid
afternoon at least, though certainly nothing like what occurred
yesterday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 246 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

Thanksgiving Day...

Broad and stacked northwest flow to maintain taste of early winter
across the Midwest through the late week.  Broad upper trough over
eastern half of the CONUS will be slow to progress east courtesy of
confluent pattern around recent system`s remnant occluded low over
western Quebec.  1038 mb polar surface high pressure centered over
the Dakotas will maintain its amplified axis into the Mississippi
Delta.

In between these features, central Indiana will continue to receive
the gradient balance on west-northwest breezes out of the Canadian
high.  Past a subtle decrease around the pre-dawn/early-morning
hours, winds will be sustained around 12-22 mph with more reasonable
gusts up to 20-30 mph or so...with the typical overall higher/
northern to lower/ southern gradient.  Can`t rule out stray
snowflakes over far north-central and far northeastern counties,
with no impacts expected.

Variable cloudiness through morning hours will include mainly clear
skies near/south of I-74 pre-dawn...increasing mainly mid-cloud
through dawn...and finally a return to partly sunny skies for all
zones through the afternoon.  Temperatures to only rebound about 10
degrees amid brisk CAA flow, with afternoon highs ranging from mid-
30s near/north of I-74 to around 40F south/west of Bloomfield. Winds
will hold wind chills to mainly the teens this morning and 20s
through the afternoon.

Tonight...

Much of the same pattern to continue following dinner, as H850
readings fall to the lowest of the air mass` residence...to below
negative 12 Celsius for most local counties.  Scattered mid-level
stratus will be the rule for the region`s northern two-thirds, with
mostly clear skies from Terre Haute to Bedford and south/west.  The
surface ridge`s center will slide across the Plains to near
Missouri, helping to step the winds down another notch through the
early evening...with sustained flow closer to 10 MPH and gusts up to
20 MPH or so.

A few more flakes or a stray flurry can not be ruled out from the
Kokomo to Muncie areas, although no impacts are expected. Overnight
minimum temperatures will be as low as Veterans Day when low mid-20s
presided over the region...with upper teens on the table for most
western and northern counties, and low 20s elsewhere.  Wind chills
will again fall into the teens...with brief single-digit wind chills
likely over most northern zones near dawn Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 246 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

A progressively more unsettled pattern will develop for the region
as broad upper level troughing sets up across much of the eastern
part of the country throughout the extended. A series of storm
systems will impact the Ohio Valley beginning with increasing
confidence in accumulating snowfall for Saturday and Saturday night
followed by additional opportunities for wintry precipitation
including snow next week.

Friday and Friday Night

Friday will serve as the calm before the storm as high pressure
maintains its influence on the region. Temperatures will be cold in
the lower and mid 30s but otherwise should be the best day of the
extended holiday weekend for any outdoor activities with sunny skies
and much lighter winds than what was experienced Wednesday and what
we are expecting for today. Clouds will increase Friday night as
moisture advects into the region on the back side of the departing
surface high. Overall trends have slowed down the arrival of snow to
near if not after daybreak Saturday with dry air lingering within the
boundary layer.

Saturday through Sunday

Low pressure ejecting out of the central Rockies Friday night and
will follow a classic Panhandle Low track into Sunday morning as it
pivots into the lower Great Lakes. With the model suite exhibiting
yet another noticeable shift south with the storm track...confidence
is growing in the first higher impact winter storm of the season for
Saturday and Saturday night across central Indiana with accumulating
snow across most if not all of the forecast area.

Snow will arrive over the Wabash Valley early Saturday morning and
spread east across the region during the day. Snow rates should
initially be light as the last of the lower level dry air is eroded
but a substantial uptick in isentropic lift on the 290K level by
Saturday afternoon will lead to an increase in snowfall rates with
moderate to occasionally heavy snowfall focused especially across
the northwest half of the forecast area. The low level jet aiding in
the increase in isentropic lift will also promote an enhancement in
warmer air being advected north by late day Saturday into Saturday
night with rain beginning to mix in with snow from the southwest as
surface temperatures rise above freezing into the 33-36F range
Saturday night. The timing of the changeover and potential intensity
of the warm nose lifting north remains a challenge and creates
greater uncertainty in additional snowfall accumulations Saturday
night. That being said...there is a reasonable and growing scenario
that would keep snow as the primary precipitation type over far
northern portions of the forecast area for most of Saturday night
with mixing held in check closer to the I-70 corridor and a period
of mainly rain across south central Indiana.

That being said...a longer duration period with snow as the primary
precipitation type and aligning with the heaviest precip rates on
Saturday has increased the potential for higher snowfall totals
across much of central Indiana and particularly across the northwest
half of the forecast area where probabilities of 4 inches of snow or
greater looks more plausible at this point. Even trimming back model
snowfall totals to take into account lower snow ratios by late day
Saturday into Saturday night suggests that 6 inches in the northern
Wabash Valley is more in play based on the 00Z model suite. If these
trends continue to hold with the higher snowfall potential...will
need to consider introducing a Winter Storm Watch for Saturday and
Saturday night for northwest counties in the forecast area
potentially as soon as later today.

There remain still some uncertainties in the overall snow forecast
but the threat for accumulating snowfall and travel impacts has
increased across central Indiana with a focus over the northwest
half of the forecast area where highest snowfall is expected. Stay
tuned for updates over the next 24 to 48 hours.

A few light snow or rain showers are possible Sunday on the back
side of the departing low but the approach of strong high pressure
will gradually dry out by late day although lower stratus will
likely linger.

Sunday Night through Wednesday

After a brief break in the unsettled weather as the strong surface
ridge pivots across the area Sunday night and early Monday... wintry
precipitation will return for early next week as an inverted surface
trough lifts into the Ohio Valley and some phasing of upper level
jet energy develops. Even less confidence exists with this system at
this point but the ensemble track of the system would place the
forecast area on the cold side aided further by whatever snow falls
this weekend. There is growing potential for snow as the primary
precip type Monday night and Tuesday with another opportunity for
accumulations. High confidence exists in the coldest air of the
season so far for the first half of next week with highs largely
below freezing Monday and Tuesday and across the northern half of
the forecast area for Wednesday. Lows will be in the teens. The
presence of a lingering snow pack over parts of the area could
certainly influence these temperatures negatively as well.

High confidence remains in a cold and largely unsettled pattern
continuing for the region through the first half of December with
additional opportunities for snow on the horizon in the 7 to 14 day
period. Welcome to Winter.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1226 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

Impacts:

- MVFR ceilings clearing early in the period

- Northwesterly winds occasionally gusting to around 20KT through
  sunset

Discussion:

High end MVFR stratus deck continues to erode from the northwest
across the area this afternoon, and will have mostly cleared LAF/HUF
by valid time. IND and BMG will return to VFR status within the
first 1-2 hours of the TAF, with VFR conditions prevailing across
the area for the remainder of the TAF period.

Winds are out of the northwest and will remain so throughout the
period, generally around 290-300. Sustained winds will range from 8-
14KT through the period, on the lighter end overnight, with
occasional gusts through this afternoon around 20KT. These gusts
will end in typical diurnal fashion around sunset.

No obstructions to visibility are expected through the period.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Nield
SHORT TERM...AGM
LONG TERM...Ryan
AVIATION...Nield