797
FXUS63 KIND 212357
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
657 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periodic rainfall tonight; warmer and sunnier this weekend

- Additional rainfall early next week with much cooler weather
  likely post-Thanksgiving

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 657 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

Damp conditions to continue into the overnight across central
Indiana as weak open wave surface low pressure slides eastward
through the Ohio Valley...holding band of isentropic lift over the
local region.  Despite recent reports from KEYE of brief heavy rain,
scattered/numerous showers along and north of the I-74 corridor will
be mainly light to perhaps occasionally moderate while continuing to
track to the east-northeast.

Light drizzle and/or mist will continue at times over most of the
region...maintaining reduced visibility around 1SM to 5SM for most
areas.  Areas of visibility down to around 1/2SM are possible in
fog...mainly south of I-70 in areas protected from winds 5KT or
greater.  Conditions are expected to be overall better than those
experienced early this morning...although VIS may drop below 1/2SM
for a few areas through the middle of the overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 243 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

Dreary conditions will persist across central Indiana into Saturday
morning.

Isentropic lift will continue into the evening hours ahead of an
area of surface low pressure. Moisture will continue to be enough to
work with the forcing to keep rain at times across the area. Will
continue with high PoPs at times from this afternoon into the
evening. Some elevated instability may sneak into the far southern
forecast area, but feel odds of thunder will be too low to mention.

During the overnight, an upper trough will move through. This will
be enough to keep some patchy light rain around, so will go with
some chance PoPs overnight.

Forcing should be far enough east by 12Z Saturday to go with a dry
forecast. Drier air will work into the area as high pressure moves
south. Some questions remain on how fast the drier air arrives and
when it will be enough to scour out the persistent low level
moisture. For now will go closer to the more pessimistic blend of
short term higher res guidance. Even with this, some sunshine is
expected most locations by the end of the day.

Clouds will keep temperatures from falling too much tonight, even
after the area of low pressure exits to the east. Will go with lows
in the upper 30s to middle 40s most areas. On Saturday, will go a
little cooler than guidance for highs given the more pessimistic
cloud cover forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Friday)...
Issued at 243 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

After the passage of the low tonight, modest WAA in the lower levels
will aid in the emergence of high pressure across the central CONUS,
with dry and above normal temperatures expected Saturday night
through Monday. This dry pattern will be short lived however, as a
deep trough will approach from the southwest late Monday through the
middle of next week. This trough is currently spinning over the
southwest coast, but will eventually push eastward as the upper
level jet phases.

As this trough passes over the Rockies, lee cyclogenesis is expected
to begin on Monday, quickly advancing to the NE within strong upper
level flow. The current expectation is for this surface low to pass
well to the north, with rain chances along a subsequent pressure
trough Monday night and Tuesday. Uncertainty begins to increase
significantly after the low passage mid week, with a widespread in
ensemble solutions dealing with this low`s interaction with a strong
baroclinic zone across southern Canada. This interaction could push
much colder air and chances for snow into the Ohio Valley late week,
but confidence in any specific hazards is low. At the moment, highs
are expected to be in the 30s and lows in the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 638 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

Impacts:

- LIFR/IFR ceilings continue tonight over most terminals
- Rain showers tapering to BR tonight
- Improvement to VFR during the day Saturday

Discussion:

Poor flying conditions to persist overnight under LIFR/IFR ceilings
and visibility expected to improve from IFR/MVFR to mainly VFR by
16Z Saturday.  CIG may bounce between lower levels...VIS will likely
vary through this evening.  Although the overall gradual improvement
from northwest to southeast should reach KLAF first, with MVFR this
evening and VFR pre-dawn over this terminal. -SHRA this evening will
trend to BR from southwest to northeast, with MVFR visibility likely
lingering the longest at KBMG.

Dry Saturday under lingering MVFR CIGs along/south of I-70...that
should lift to VFR as scattering out...from north to south by 18Z.
Winds slowly backing tonight through northeasterly headings...near
7KT at KIND and mainly under 7KT elsewhere.  Winds to diminish to
light/variable Saturday afternoon.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...AGM
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...Updike
AVIATION...AGM