Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 241620

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1120 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017


The Aviation section has been updated below.


Issued at 1259 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

A weak front is forecast to approach Indiana from the northwest
today, then cross the state overnight. High pressure will control
Hoosier weather from Saturday into Tuesday. After that, the weather
should turn a little wetter as a complicated combination of low
pressure systems and fronts affect our region.


.NEAR TERM (Today)...
Issued at 1259 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

There is high confidence with this forecast.

Models agree the area will be dry with increasing afternoon
cloudiness in advance of a weak front. They also agree well on
on the fields controlling temperatures. This suggests consensus
should be nudged up since the latest runs concur today should be
relatively warm. Temperature errors should be 3 degrees or less.


.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday night)...
Issued at 1259 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

There is good model agreement and high confidence the weather will
be dry. A weak front should bring some clouds tonight. After that
skies should be mostly clear under high pressure, but there could be
a limited amount of stratocumulus downwind from the Lakes.

There is high confidence in temperature trends with this
forecast, with all models agreeing on the basics. There is
moderate confidence in specific temperature forecasts, which will
be sensitive to whether there are some as opposed to no lake
effect clouds. The consensus will be used with possible errors of
2-5 degrees.


.LONG TERM /Monday through Friday/...
Issued at 205 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

A relatively quiet work week is expected across central Indiana.
Blended initialization suggests temperatures will start out above
normal and cool toward seasonal normals later in the week as
large scale flow becomes more cyclonic late in the week.

A compact low moving out of the southern plains will bring chances
for rain Wednesday afternoon into Thursday evening. At this time,
precipitation type does not appear to be a significant issue, but
slight downward trends in temperature could promote mixing of a
few snowflakes over northern portions of the area. This
hypothetical appears unlikely to have any significant impact at
this time, however.

Initialization handled things well and few changes were required.


.AVIATION (Discussion for the 24/18Z TAF Issuance...
Issued at 1120 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

High confidence in VFR conditions through 09z Saturday. Then, the
GFS LAMP suggests there could be come MVFR ceilings near and behind
a cold front, that will move through from the northwest 06z-12z. The
SREF, meanwhile supports VFR through the period. With it being so
far out, we will go optimistic for now.

Winds will be southwest today to 15 knots with gusts possible. Winds
will drop to 10 knots or less overnight and shift to the northwest
behind the cold front.





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