Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KIND 052113
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
413 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A BRIEF
SHOT OF BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO CENTRAL INDIANA OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING. HIGHS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAY BE THE WARMEST EXPERIENCED SINCE LATE
NOVEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 401 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND INTO THE
REGION BY THIS EVENING AND LATER MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING SHOULD COME BY THE END OF THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND
DEEPER SUBSIDENCE SPREADS INTO THE AREA.

UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING BY SEVERAL
DEGREES DUE TO THIS AND AND STILL INTACT SNOW PACK. WENT WITH MUCH
COLDER MAV GUIDANCE AS COMPARED TO THE NAME AND EVEN LOWERED THIS
BY CLOSE TO 6 TO 8 DEGREES...RESULTING IN LOWS OF ZERO TO 4 BELOW
ZERO. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWEST...THEN WEST WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 401 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

YIPPEE!!!

FINALLY. A CHANGE FROM THE "WASH...RINSE..AND REPEAT" PATTERN FOR
NEARLY THESE PAST 2 MONTHS OF COLD...THEN SNOW...THEN BITTER COLD
WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORIES....THEN REPEAT.

HOWEVER AS MENTIONED IN A PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION A MUCH
...MUCH...MUCH...WELCOMED CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM (AND
BEYOND!) IS EXPECTED AS CONDITIONS LOOK QUIET AND *DRY* WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS BERMUDA
HIGH-ISH TYPE PATTERN APPEARS TO CARRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS
BRINGING DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THIS
PERIOD!

WARM ADVECTION GETS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH TEMPS STEADILY WARMING BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
NEAR 40 BY SATURDAY. A MOS BLEND LOOKED GENERALLY REASONABLE FROM
FRIDAY ON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 210 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND THEN SOAR INTO THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING ALMOST
SPRING LIKE. THE PATTERN STARTS OUT WITH SOME WEAK TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY. IT APPEARS ANY PRECIP WITH THIS
WEAK WAVE SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE LATEST
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION HAS COME IN WITH DRY CONDITIONS. AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WILL PUSH THE TEMPERATURES INTO THAT UPPER 50S/LOW 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 052000Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

GIVEN THE RECENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO
GROUP FOR SOME BKN VFR CIGS FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS AND HEATING WANES...ANY LINGERING CU WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY.

VFR CONTINUES.

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 05/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN
THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS AS AIR COLUMN MOISTENS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL START OUT NORTHERLY AND GRADUALLY
BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE TAF
PERIOD...THEY WILL BE LIGHT THOUGH.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.