Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 230832
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
432 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST...ALLOWING MORE
HUMID AND WARM AIR TO SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA IN ITS WAKE.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO TOMORROW...BUT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY TOMORROW NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE SHIFT IN THE PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST STATES...BUT IT WILL STILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER DURING
THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AGAIN TODAY. HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S...STUCK
AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS WHICH ARE IN AGREEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN ONSET TIME OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS
WEEKEND...AND ARE NOW FOCUSING IN ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS AFTER SUN 09Z...BUT THE BEST LIFT WILL
FALL DURING THE MON 12-18Z TIME FRAME. AS A RESULT...WILL CARRY
LIKELY POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME. AFTER THAT...DYNAMICS ARE
WEAK AND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY...
WILL ONLY GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S. TRENDED
TOWARD THE MAV FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD SINCE IT WAS WARMER ON
SUNDAY WITH DECENT SUNSHINE...AND COOLER ON MONDAY WITH THE
INCREASED CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ENSEMBLES STILL IN AGREEMENT FOR AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DURING
THE EXTENDED WITH ALMOST DAILY CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DISTURBANCES EJECT OUT OF A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION FOR THIS
PERIOD APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. WILL KEEP POPS GOING
ALL PERIODS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 230600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

0825Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

CONFIDENCE IS GREAT THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD WITH JUST CIRRUS OVERNIGHT AND AC AND DIURNAL SCATTERED
CU 5K FEET OR ABOVE AFTER 15Z.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH LESS THAN
10 KNOTS AFTER 15Z AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/KOCH

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