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000
FXUS63 KIND 090837
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
337 AM EST MON DEC 9 2013

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST MON DEC 9 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY BUT ANOTHER
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR SNOW FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW TO OTHER PARTS OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. COLDER AIR WILL THEN FLOW IN FOR THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY THE WEEKEND BUT YET ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST MON DEC 9 2013

A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL BE OUT OF MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA SHORTLY. BEHIND THE SNOW VISIBILITIES GENERALLY
IMPROVE WITH NO MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE SEEN IN OBSERVATIONS.

BASED ON THIS HAVE DECIDED TO END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT
ISSUANCE TIME. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT THOUGH
MENTIONING SLICK CONDITIONS PERSISTING EVEN THOUGH FREEZING
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. WILL KEEP FLURRIES IN THE GRIDS THROUGH 12Z.

OTHERWISE EXPECT A LITTLE DECREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY...BUT
STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERALL. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SOME IN COLD
ADVECTION THIS MORNING AND THEN REBOUND A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. BASED
ON EXPECTED TIME OF ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR MOS HIGHS LOOK PRETTY GOOD
FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST MON DEC 9 2013

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE BIG PICTURE SO USED A BLEND FOR MOST
PERIODS.

TONIGHT ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ONCE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER
WAVE. BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS WELL.

NAM IS FARTHEST NORTH WITH PRECIPITATION WITH OTHERS A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH. THIS LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER CASE WITH A VERY SHARP CUTOFF OF
POTENTIAL ACCUMULATING SNOW AND NO SNOW AT ALL. THUS CONFIDENCE IS
ONLY LOW TO MEDIUM IN NORTHERN PLACEMENT OF POPS...ESPECIALLY NORTH.

WILL GO DRY IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH A QUICK TRANSITION TO
HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY POPS SOUTH. IF NAM IS RIGHT WILL HAVE TO BUMP
TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH LATER FORECASTS. WILL CONTINUE
TO WATCH CLOSELY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A QUICK INCH OR SO IN SOME
AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

FORCING QUICKLY ENDS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY SO ONLY WENT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE TUESDAY AS SYSTEM EXITS. HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY. BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT LOOKS LIKE JUST ENOUGH MIGHT SNEAK INTO THE FAR NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA TO GO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM EXITS.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...MAV LOOKS TOO COLD TONIGHT GIVEN EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER WITH NEXT SYSTEM. WENT CLOSER TO WARMER MET. ON TUESDAY
MAV LOOKS TOO WARM MANY AREAS GIVEN SOME COLD ADVECTION DURING PART
OF THE DAY. WENT CLOSER TO MET. AT OTHER TIMES USED A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EST MON DEC 9 2013

MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY WHICH WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST FRIDAY.  A RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING A SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY.  OVERALL ONLY MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO ALL BLEND
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MODELS INDICATE A COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER TENNESSEE AND TRACKING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY SATURDAY EVENING.  MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED A LITTLE
WETTER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  1000-700 MB THICKNESS FAVOR
SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF OUR REGION AND A WINTRY
MIX TO THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD MOVE OUT SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT SOME
MODELS INDICATE TRACE PRECIP AMOUNTS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...SO WILL ADD 20 PERCENT POPS MOST AREAS.  THE GFS REMAINS DRY
ON SUNDAY WHILE THE EURO INDICATES POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS SOME AREAS
WITH A STRONGER UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  WITH POOR
AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY FOR NOW ON SUNDAY.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND...WENT A LITTLE ABOVE
ALL BLEND TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND A LITTLE COLDER SUNDAY TO PARTIALLY MATCH THE COLDER
TREND OF THE NEW EURO.  IN MOST CASES THESE WERE ONLY MINOR TWEAK TO
ALL BLEND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 090900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON DEC 9 2013

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PORTIONS OF PREVIOUS AVIATION
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

EXPECT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO END. OTHERWISE...IFR OR LIFR CEILINGS
WILL BE THE RULE WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER
QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JP/JH

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